Political Betting Thread

jerryisgood said:
I took Cruz and Sanders for their party's respective nominations (at +2000 and +2500) - Both have shifted with Cruz down to +3XX, at times +2XX. I also played Not Carson back when he was surging around the second or third debate which looks good now too. Someone was highly recommending Carson wins the caucus way back when but it doesn't look like that's going to pan out - I just picked him not to be the Republican nominee.
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Not Carson ITD looking solid $$$
 
jerryisgood said:
I took Cruz and Sanders for their party's respective nominations (at +2000 and +2500) - Both have shifted with Cruz down to +3XX, at times +2XX. I also played Not Carson back when he was surging around the second or third debate which looks good now too. Someone was highly recommending Carson wins the caucus way back when but it doesn't look like that's going to pan out - I just picked him not to be the Republican nominee.
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Yeah, there was a lot of opportunity at the beginning but political bets are limited so severely. I made $200 on Not Walker at the very start when he was the favored Republican. I would've bet that line every time over and over and over again given the chance (just like I've done with Not Trump, uh oh).
 
Hillary wins Iowa -195 on 5D

Bernie wins Iowa +220 on BM



For those that got Bernie to win presidency at sick odds, BetOnline has Bernie NOT president -800

It's also nice to see that Bernie wins New Hampshire is currently at -275. I got it a few days ago at -160 for 2u
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Hillary wins Iowa -195 on 5D

Bernie wins Iowa +220 on BM



For those that got Bernie to win presidency at sick odds, BetOnline has Bernie NOT president -800

It's also nice to see that Bernie wins New Hampshire is currently at -275. I got it a few days ago at -160 for 2u
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I wonder what the rules are for "wins Iowa". I remember in 2012 it took over a month to determine that Santorum had actually won Iowa instead of Romney. The media declared Romney the winner on the night of the caucuses.
 
Thoughts on the Democratic Iowa caucus? Hillary and Bernie are basically neck and neck and it can end up going to either one, maybe with a very slight edge to Hillary. Yet Bernie is +185
 
Can't fault a Sanders bet at those odds, but Sanders probably needs larger polling leads to take states. He has the worst categories to dominate: men, younger voters, and first-time caucus-goers. Hillary's supporters are more likely to be voting.

Also, Hillary really needs Iowa because Sanders is going to take New Hampshire.
 
Scythe said:
Can't fault a Sanders bet at those odds, but Sanders probably needs larger polling leads to take states. He has the worst categories to dominate: men, younger voters, and first-time caucus-goers. Hillary's supporters are more likely to be voting.

Also, Hillary really needs Iowa because Sanders is going to take New Hampshire.
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That is very true. I was thinking about that. I also feel that Bernie has the momentum, though. I think Hillary will slightly win, but I think Bernie has some value at +185.

Bernie +185 .5u
 
Have $4 to win $100 on Trump for the general election lol, back when he was 25:1.
 
Trump to win New Hampshire is now up at -155 which I think is a great price and an overreaction to Iowa.

(But if he loses this, I win anyway, because I'm so invested against him as the nominee).

Rubio to win nomination -120, which I think is a fine price (I actually have that at +400 from some time ago as well). It could get better as he is unlikely to win the next few. I'm not sure how that one's going to move. He deserves to be the favorite now, but his best states aren't coming up yet. It's possible Trump flops, and the rest of the establishment bleed off to Rubio and he takes NH. That would be a pretty massive swing but it's the most likely shift possible.

Edit: Rubio New Hampshire +380 good for arbitrage there.

Sanders/Hillary closer than I thought it'd be. Sanders obviously had value (and was in the +200s, I still didn't hit it, thought Hillary would win by 1-5 points), the true winner may not even be known for a bit.
 
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I played Field Wins Iowa Caucus over Trump immediately after Trump confirmed he wouldn't make the debate. I thought it'd hurt him more than it seemed to right afterwards, but glad I made the play at +130. Wish I waited until last night as it climbed to the +2XX's.

Iowa definitely hurt Trump's Presidential bid and I agree with Scythe that Rubio became the rightful favorite last night. Not sure how New Hampshire will play out - A week is a long time for Trump to say or do something that will drastically change things. He seemed to play a more humble and graceful character in accepting second place last night, paraphrasing everything Rubio said shortly before him. If he keeps this attitude he may win some and lose some support.

It's an interesting race - Sanders came oh-so-close, doesn't get much closer than that. He's another one .. did he hit his ceiling or is this his floor? Lol @ -1050 to win New Hampshire though. Bill Clinton suggests Hillary can still win NH but I don't see it with the proximity to Vermont. I do like Rubio at +3XX for action.
 
jerryisgood said:
Iowa definitely hurt Trump's Presidential bid and I agree with Scythe that Rubio became the rightful favorite last night. Not sure how New Hampshire will play out - A week is a long time for Trump to say or do something that will drastically change things. He seemed to play a more humble and graceful character in accepting second place last night, paraphrasing everything Rubio said shortly before him. If he keeps this attitude he may win some and lose some support.
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If Trump turns meek now, he's not going to take a single state. Assume he'll aim at Rubio whose team should prepare him with every counterattack imaginable for the NH debate. Trump can't play the humble card after mocking the weakness of all his opponents for months and expect any respect from voters.
 
For the Republicans: imo this is a two-way race between Trump and Rubio. Media is painting Iowa as a big loss for Trump but I see it as a victory. He finally proved viability, and he got 7 delegates to Cruz's 8. I do not believe Cruz can win the nomination. Establishment money will ramp up over over the coming months to try to destroy Trump. imo the markets overreacted last night by slashing Trump's price so violently. The guy has staying power.

For the Dems: this would have been huge for Sanders if he had won. Instead, the Republicans are dominating the headlines. Sanders should win NH easily, but then he will face a battering of states with lots of pro-Clinton minorities. To me this is an 85/15 Clinton/Sanders.
 
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waiguoren said:
For the Republicans: imo this is a two-way race between Trump and Rubio. Media is painting Iowa as a big loss for Trump but I see it as a victory. He finally proved viability, and he got 7 delegates to Cruz's 8. I do not believe Cruz can win the nomination. Establishment money will ramp up over over the coming months to try to destroy Trump. imo the markets overreacted last night by slashing Trump's price so violently. The guy has staying power.

For the Dems: this would have been huge for Sanders if he had won. Instead, the Republicans are dominating the headlines. Sanders should win NH easily, but then he will face a battering of states with lots of pro-Clinton minorities. To me this is an 85/15 Clinton/Sanders.
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If the minorities start changing their minds about Hillary, we will have a real race for the Dem nomination.
 
Scythe said:
Trump to win New Hampshire is now up at -155 which I think is a great price and an overreaction to Iowa.

(But if he loses this, I win anyway, because I'm so invested against him as the nominee).
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Agree. Good price.
Scythe said:
Rubio to win nomination -120, which I think is a fine price (I actually have that at +400 from some time ago as well). It could get better as he is unlikely to win the next few. I'm not sure how that one's going to move. He deserves to be the favorite now, but his best states aren't coming up yet. It's possible Trump flops, and the rest of the establishment bleed off to Rubio and he takes NH. That would be a pretty massive swing but it's the most likely shift possible.
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I'm not sure there are enough "establishment" votes out there to give Rubio a victory. I think Trump and Rubio should both be around +150.

Scythe said:
Edit: Rubio New Hampshire +380 good for arbitrage there.
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What are you arbing it with? Ignoring arb, +380 is being generous to Rubio. NH primary is only 6 days away and Trump is up by 25+%.

Scythe said:
Sanders/Hillary closer than I thought it'd be. Sanders obviously had value (and was in the +200s, I still didn't hit it, thought Hillary would win by 1-5 points), the true winner may not even be known for a bit.
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You were wise to pass. Hillary's organization is better and she has experience from losing Iowa in 08.
 
waiguoren said:
What are you arbing it with? Ignoring arb, +380 is being generous to Rubio. NH primary is only 6 days away and Trump is up by 25+%.
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I bet Trump in NH heavily around the opener post-Iowa as it moved(-155,-170,-185). And then hedged a bit on Rubio because I could see him continuing to surge and Trump imploding. I still think Trump's going to win in NH as well, but if he were to falter, Rubio should be the replacement.

I don't really see how can you can claim Sanders at almost +300 was a bad bet in Iowa when it was a virtual tie. You're talking about it in retrospect and his organization did well in Iowa (I bet Hillary at near -200 and would say it proved to be a bad bet despite hitting).
 
Scythe said:
I don't really see how can you can claim Sanders at almost +300 was a bad bet in Iowa when it was a virtual tie. You're talking about it in retrospect and his organization did well in Iowa (I bet Hillary and would say it proved to be a bad bet despite hitting).
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I thought you said +200 for Sanders. +300 would have been a good bet for sure.
 
Damn, tried to get in on that Trump -155 NH action but he was -255 when I checked last night. I'll probably play Rubio small for action, I'm not betting Trump at such a steep price. So far no attacks on Rubio from Trump who seems preoccupied with Cruz (still) and I'm thinking Rubio will probably have a strong debate performance. I wish they had point spreads for this ish!
 
jerryisgood said:
Damn, tried to get in on that Trump -155 NH action but he was -255 when I checked last night. I'll probably play Rubio small for action, I'm not betting Trump at such a steep price. So far no attacks on Rubio from Trump who seems preoccupied with Cruz (still) and I'm thinking Rubio will probably have a strong debate performance. I wish they had point spreads for this ish!
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When is this debate?
 
It's on Saturday. Trump back up to -300 in New Hampshire which is about right at this point.

He should be much higher according to the polls but I just don't trust his base or his ability to get through the next debate unscathed. His last debate was a high point. Now, he's coming off a loss and has been whining for Cruz's win to be nullified on Twitter.

What's worked for him while winning may burn him coming off a loss.
 
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