Political Betting Thread

Yeah, I hit +394 on BM too (hardly ever look at my BM anymore with live-betting's infrequency).
 
Scythe said:
Yeah, I hit +394 on BM too (hardly ever look at my BM anymore with live-betting's infrequency).
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How should we play SC? Trump is -290 on 5d and Cruz is like +390 on BM. How do you think the lines will move?
 
This race has already busted my brain too much to pretend I can predict the moves. I would think Trump's odds are going to come down in SC though. Odd to me that he's favored near-equally between Nevada and South Carolina (primary over caucus, I get but Cruz himself would aim bigger in SC, he's already attacking Trump's character with ads there).
 
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Scythe said:
This race has already busted my brain too much to pretend I can predict the moves. I would think Trump's odds are going to come down in SC though. Odd to me that he's favored near-equally between Nevada and South Carolina.
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So you think he has a better shot at Nevada then in South Carolina? I am pretty new to politics, so these are genuine questions I'm asking. And are Trump and Cruz virtually the only ones who can win SC?
 
Cruz -165 to place 2nd in Iowa. Would it be a dumb idea to play Cruz wins Iowa +385 and Cruz places 2nd -165, assuming 1st and 2nd is Trump/Cruz in either combination?
 
Nevada is hard to judge as a caucus state, but I think the field of 5 really hurts the other candidates against Trump when you know he has that built-in base and nothing about Nevada seems like a given for the others. Nevada isn't a lock at all, I just favor Trump's position and thought the odds were ok.

SC is another large evangelical state and it just seems winnable for Cruz, he's playing a calculating strategy, and has started dropping ads on Trump. I like the big underdog odds in a state where he's going to try really hard to win.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Cruz -165 to place 2nd in SC. Would it be a dumb idea to play Cruz wins SC +385 and Cruz places 2nd -165, assuming 1st and 2nd is Trump/Cruz in either combination?
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Switched Iowa to SC for you. Haha. I think that's extremely likely to hit on one or the other but Rubio was also trending strong and then ended up 5th in NH after a miserable debate. It's pretty risky though, I'm just going to wait for the next debate and watch the polls.

If Cruz comes out and shits on stage in South Carolina don't hold me accountable! The next debate is Saturday, I assume he's going after Trump. South Carolina has 50 delegates on the line and is a weird "winner takes most" system, so winning there is even more significant.

Here's the ad he's currently playing if you haven't seen it:
 
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Those are capped to hell, I was limited to $25 on Cruz in Texas -350. It's hard to guess these.
 
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Jae Gibbz said:
So you think he has a better shot at Nevada then in South Carolina? I am pretty new to politics, so these are genuine questions I'm asking. And are Trump and Cruz virtually the only ones who can win SC?
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The Bush family is well liked in SC. Jeb! will fight hard there and might finish ahead of the polling data similar to Kasich in NH. Cruz also has a good shot there. I favor Trump to win SC but would not pay the juice.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Cruz -165 to place 2nd in Iowa. Would it be a dumb idea to play Cruz wins Iowa +385 and Cruz places 2nd -165, assuming 1st and 2nd is Trump/Cruz in either combination?
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I guess I already answered this, but I don't think Cruz placing in the top two is guaranteed. I see his main advantage there being the large evangelical population.

We haven't had a good SC poll in nearly a month, which is an eternity in these conditions. That poll showed Trump 36 Cruz 20 Rubio 14 Bush 9 Carson 8. Marcobot's imploding could cause Bush or Carson to shoot up.
 
Scythe said:
Nevada is hard to judge as a caucus state, but I think the field of 5 really hurts the other candidates against Trump when you know he has that built-in base and nothing about Nevada seems like a given for the others. Nevada isn't a lock at all, I just favor Trump's position and thought the odds were ok.

SC is another large evangelical state and it just seems winnable for Cruz, he's playing a calculating strategy, and has started dropping ads on Trump. I like the big underdog odds in a state where he's going to try really hard to win.
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Problem is that Carson and Jeb! are also trying really hard to win. If they don't do well here it could be the end for them.
 
The next few weeks will be helpful to Cruz in that many of the contests are in evangelical-heavy states like SC. This will put even more pressure on the 3 establishment candidates as I expect them to mostly underperform their national polling averages. But since they are also the candidates with the strongest financial/political backing, I don't expect them to bow out easily. All this favors Trump, who benefits greatly from the division of "establishment" voters.

I still have no freaking clue who Cruz's supporters would flock to if Cruz were to drop out. I'm guessing half to Trump, half to others. Moot point though since Cruz will be in it for the long haul.
 
New SC poll out:

Trump 36 Cruz 20 Rubio 15 Bush 11 Kasich 9 Carson 5

Surprised Rubio is still this high. Also kind of surprised at Kasich, thought he'd be lower.
 
Will be interesting to see what happens at the debate tomorrow night. If everyone attacks Trump, things could get interesting. But I've heard that Bush is targeting Rubio, which once again helps Trump.
 
Hillary wins Nevada is currently at -165. Is that good?
 
Would say it's about right. But I may just be overly skeptical as my Hillary bet barely played out in Iowa.
 
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Jae Gibbz said:
Hillary wins Nevada is currently at -165. Is that good?
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Seems about right to me, but a new Nevada poll came out today showing a tie at 45% in Nevada. The polling group (Washington Free Beacon) is right-leaning and anti-Hillary, so many people don't trust it.
 
Scythe said:
Would say it's about right. But I may just be overly skeptical as my Hillary bet barely played out in Iowa.
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What are the rules for the Iowa bet to cash? I guess it's based on SDEs since, to my knowledge, raw vote totals for the Iowa Democratic race are not made public.
 
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