Political Betting Thread

Scythe said:
They're projecting Clinton as the winner at about 65% reporting. She's up 4 points.

I ended up betting both Cruz 2nd/Rubio 3rd (and still have a bit on Cruz to win at +400 and +1000, haha). Kasich over Bush was a good bet at those odds, never saw it.
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I also bet Cruz 2nd. It's looking like Rubio is going to edge it though
 
Cruz/Rubio and Kasich/Bush both basically tied for 2nd and 4th, respectively. I really hope it ends up being Cruz 2nd and Kasich 4th ;)
 
trident said:
Dan Carlin has a podcast called Common Sense (its worth the listen) and he was recently talking about the role of super delegates during the party conventions.

They have roughly 25% of the vote and are not beholden to a candidate like delegates from the states. Normally they vote the line the other 75% have established but Carlin was talking about how their true role is to keep the party from getting hijacked by a swell of new voters or a candidate new to the part, which Bernie basically is.

Hillary is a party stalwart where Bernie is a social democrat using the Democratic Party apparatus to get elected. If the primaries are close, you could see the party "rescuing" itself from this outsider with those 25% of delegates that represent the Democratic party.

The GOP is even more convoluted because Trump might run as an independent if the party defeats him in the primaries, a move Bernie has said he won't do.

Something to consider if you are wagering on this bizarre race.
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Trident


You describe the superdelegate process exactly how it is...it was established in the early 80s I have a way to keep people like George McGovern from getting the nomination after he got smoked by Richard Nixon in 49 of 50 states only winning Massachusetts LOL… But the superdelegates would never make a move towards Hillary unless she won the popular vote and the major states with a diverse population/demographic while Bernie was only picking up small states with an all white demographic. They know that that would just tear the party apart.

At any rate, this is the strangest for work so I'm I've ever seen and I am bewildered at the Donald Trump phenomenon...no offense to anyone supporting him but I have no clue how anyone could vote for him... I would love that he is bought and paid for but he has the knowledge of a fifth grader and the temperament of a fourth-grader. Absolutely no class.

Hillary is going to win the democratic nomination almost certainly looks like Trump will win the GOP nomination after tonight which is Great news for Hillary.

But I agree with Scythe but Marco Rubio's is a candidate that is still the dark horse and could pull it out… And definitely the candidate that the Democrats would fear the most.

I will talk more about it tomorrow
 
First primary where I've come out a loser, and it's by 0.2%. That stings.

Carson hurt us. Can't believe he's still pulling 7%.

MMA Goodfella said:
At any rate, this is the strangest for work so I'm I've ever seen and I am bewildered at the Donald Trump phenomenon...no offense to anyone supporting him but I have no clue how anyone could vote for him... I would love that he is bought and paid for but he has the knowledge of a fifth grader and the temperament of a fourth-grader. Absolutely no class.
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Year of the iconoclast and an overlarge field of opposition. I share your opinion personally, but his opponents are treating him like they're at a real debate (Cruz) or they've tried to ignore him (everyone else, until Jeb in the last two). 35% of Republicans aren't interested in policy, they want that rancor. I still think Rubio comes out ahead in the end unless this stays a multi-man race for too long.

Cruz has to do something drastic in the next few weeks after this performance (I agree with others that he doesn't have a real path to the nomination, but I thought he'd do better in SC).
 
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Got Rubio to get the nomination @3.5 a few days ago, really happy about that.
 
@waiguoren

What are your thoughts on the Texas Republican primary? Cruz' lead has shrunk all the way to a 1 point lead in the latest poll and Trump has a lot of momentum.

Line is

Cruz -160
AOR +120

EDIT: I also want your thoughts on the Massachusetts Democratic primary. A recent poll showed both Bernie and Hillary tied. I put bets on Hillary +200 or more
 
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Jae Gibbz said:
@waiguoren

What are your thoughts on the Texas Republican primary? Cruz' lead has shrunk all the way to a 1 point lead in the latest poll and Trump has a lot of momentum.

Line is

Cruz -160
AOR +120

EDIT: I also want your thoughts on the Massachusetts Democratic primary. A recent poll showed both Bernie and Hillary tied. I put bets on Hillary +200 or more
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There are two Texas polls out today, and one shows Cruz with a 15 point lead. What are Trump's odds to win Texas? Momentum is strong for him right now and at anything +200 or better I would take him, would even consider +160. BUT: the CNN debate tomorrow night could have a big effect. Many voters wait until the last debate to start paying attention, and in a race this tight it could easily change the outcome---that's what happened to Rubio in NH.

Re: MA, it might be a good bet, with an important caveat below. I'm thinking the Dems will get less media coverage since they don't have a debate scheduled until March 6 and since the Republican turmoil is so much more interesting. Less media attention is good for Hillary. Regarding the poll, a caveat is that Bernie people turn out, while Hillary people are less enthusiastic and might even just be responding to the only name they recognize in the polling. So Hillary might need to lead by 4 or 5 in the poll just to get a victory.
 
@Jae Gibbz

New Texas poll just came out showing Cruz 32 Trump 32 Rubio 17 Kasich 6 Carson 5

What are Trump's odds?
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Trump +130. Best I see
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Keep your eye on that line as you watch tomorrow's debate. I expect Cruz to go after Trump tomorrow as he feels himself slipping. Sharp comebacks from Trump could seal the deal.
 
Debate just ended. Rubio/Cruz went after Trump hard as expected. I really can't tell who won because there was no moderation to speak of---just people talking over each other. I thought Cruz came off well on home turf. Might be enough to carry him to victory in TX.
 
Yeah, it was impossible to tell who won that - what a mess. The "moment" of the event was Rubio getting Trump to defend his policy and Trump just getting mad and repeating himself over and over but Cruz/Rubio also let Trump lambast them without responding for long periods of time as if this were a real debate. Those long periods of uninterrupted insults just make Trump appear stronger to his core. He never lets anyone say his name without yelling.

Next week:
Trump and Sanders in Mass
Trump in Tennessee
Cruz in Texas
Not Trump in Arkansas and Minnesota
 
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I expect tomorrow to more or less seal the deal for Trump.
 
Just got Bernie Okhlahoma +260 after a new poll shows he's up 5 and news about letting independent voters vote in the DEM primary but not the republican!
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Just got Bernie Okhlahoma +260 after a new poll shows he's up 5 and news about letting independent voters vote in the DEM primary but not the republican!
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Nice!

I think you were talking about taking Bernie in MA? New poll shows Clinton up by 8 there. Also momentum is on Clinton's side. But it's an open primary, so maybe Bernie can overcome the gap via independents.
 
waiguoren said:
Nice!

I think you were talking about taking Bernie in MA? New poll shows Clinton up by 8 there. Also momentum is on Clinton's side. But it's an open primary, so maybe Bernie can overcome the gap via independents.
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Dude, I have Hillary 1.85u at +210 in Mass! I can easily hedge right now with Bernie +420. I got a bunch of other sick lines for tomorrow. ll post them later
 
only line I see on 5d realted to Oklahamo is as follows:

Oklahoma Primary - Republican Winner
Tue 3/1 625 Donald Trump wins Oklahoma Primary -1065
6:00AM 626 Field wins Oklahoma Primary +555

should I hit the field wins line at +555?
 
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