Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

yurp there go kamala's odds. up to 4.7 ish now.

 

[longway]

Tulsi's odds dropped from 50 to 30 on bet fair. Its exactly what I thought would happen, shame there is no real market in the UK.

 

[Roads55]

wtf it's about 12 hours after the debate and i still can't find a video of it anywhere... looking on youtube again to no avail

 

[waiguoren]

My Night Two Predictions from earlier in the thread, revisited:

i) de Blasio, Booker and others would go after Biden early and often. Correct

ii) Biden would fold under the pressure and have a horrible night Incorrect

I thought Biden had a middling to above-average night. On one hand, he stuttered a lot and took punches from Castro, de Blasio, Booker. On the other hand, he came prepared, wasn't half as "sleepy" as last time and (probably most important) got the most airtime due to everyone going for his heart. I really think airtime is huge in this 10-candidate format. I guess he might decline a bit in the next batch of polls, but I'd be shocked if he drops by more than 5% in the RCP average over the next two weeks.

I think Harris had the worst night of any of the top 10 candidates. I think her RCP average will decline by at least 3% over the next 14 days.


My current bets:

Placed April 15 | Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee |+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 | Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee |+550| Risk: $1818.18

 

[longway]

So, is Harris fcuked? By the strength of the backlash against Gabbard, and the absurdity of the talking points used, I can't help thinking that Harris suffered a major blow. I think Harris is worth fading from this point. Do you guys agree or not?

This can only favour Buttigieg, Warren, and Biden, not so much Sanders as his base would not like Harris anyway.

 

[Roads55]

So, is Harris fcuked? By the strength of the backlash against Gabbard, and the absurdity of the talking points used, I can't help thinking that Harris suffered a major blow. I think Harris is worth fading from this point. Do you guys agree or not?

This can only favour Buttigieg, Warren, and Biden, not so much Sanders as his base would not like Harris anyway.

she took a major blow, even potentially fatal in my eyes, not just form the tulsi attack but from the debate in general, she came across really dislike-able imo kind of similar to gillibrand though not quite as much, hindsight is 20-20 but im kicking myself for not betting against her more when she was in the low 3.0's, the reasons were obvious, her record as a prosecutor were obviously going to be attacked, and she has a lot of ground to make up in the polls.
I think most people just didn't expect it to come so brutally honest from tulsi. I don't think enough people will connect with her to give her the big boost in the polls she needs. the next couple weeks polls will be interesting, it's still wide open it seems. im expecting harris to drop a little, also biden but alternatively did anyone else really stand out enough to take that many votes away from these 2? warren seems to have the best shot atm.

 

[waiguoren]

she took a major blow, even potentially fatal in my eyes, not just form the tulsi attack but from the debate in general, she came across really dislike-able imo kind of similar to gillibrand though not quite as much, hindsight is 20-20 but im kicking myself for not betting against her more when she was in the low 3.0's, the reasons were obvious, her record as a prosecutor were obviously going to be attacked, and she has a lot of ground to make up in the polls.
I think most people just didn't expect it to come so brutally honest from tulsi. I don't think enough people will connect with her to give her the big boost in the polls she needs. the next couple weeks polls will be interesting, it's still wide open it seems. im expecting harris to drop a little, also biden but alternatively did anyone else really stand out enough to take that many votes away from these 2? warren seems to have the best shot atm.

I think she came across very poorly. That said, I don't think she will dip much below 8% in the RCP average. There is a certain segment of "identity politics" voters out there who will stick with her. Also: part of the reason I made the bet on Sanders was that I thought Harris would take from Biden in the black community. I still think she has that potential by ratcheting up the pandering.

Consistent with my original view of the race, I'm looking for a slow and gradual >10% drop in Biden's support over the next four months. I think that's feasible. Booker opened fire at the last debate down that alley. Biden really doesn't stand out from the crowd and doesn't excite people. I would think the Democrats would be smart enough to not make a similar mistake to their 2016 flop.



My current bets:

Placed April 15 | Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee |+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 | Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee |+550| Risk: $1818.18

 

[longway]

didn't expect it to come so brutally honest from tulsi.

I follow Tulsi on twitter and she referred to it, so that gave me the hint she was going to use it as an attack during the debates. In fact, the democrats are so mired in identity politics none of the male candidates can go after any of the ladies, especially Biden as he is the scum of the earth - an old white male - so must be submissive in Harris's presence. So, she became complacent as she generally doesn't get called out on her shit. It was a beautiful takedown, I watched over and over. Man, these MMA analogies are so apt.

Consistent with my original view of the race, I'm looking for a slow and gradual >10% drop in Biden's support over the next four months.

I have to disagree. It's between Warren and Biden now, probably end up as running mates as an effort to weld together the progressive wing and the sane democrats, and they need a vagina on the ticket. I just don't believe Sanders can muster up the primary voters in the numbers required. The dark horse is Buttigieg imo, possibly at a far stretch, Booker.

I put in a small lay bet against Harris, put on 2U on Buttigieg as I expect him to start to look better as the primary season develops, and should get to cash out at a nice profit on him, put money on Biden (I think the odds on him are great, he is so old, but they literally are out of options), and Warren as her odds will improve as well I think.

 

[waiguoren]

I follow Tulsi on twitter and she referred to it, so that gave me the hint she was going to use it as an attack during the debates. In fact, the democrats are so mired in identity politics none of the male candidates can go after any of the ladies, especially Biden as he is the scum of the earth - an old white male - so must be submissive in Harris's presence. So, she became complacent as she generally doesn't get called out on her shit. It was a beautiful takedown, I watched over and over. Man, these MMA analogies are so apt.



I have to disagree. It's between Warren and Biden now, probably end up as running mates as an effort to weld together the progressive wing and the sane democrats, and they need a vagina on the ticket. I just don't believe Sanders can muster up the primary voters in the numbers required. The dark horse is Buttigieg imo, possibly at a far stretch, Booker.

I put in a small lay bet against Harris, put on 2U on Buttigieg as I expect him to start to look better as the primary season develops, and should get to cash out at a nice profit on him, put money on Biden (I think the odds on him are great, he is so old, but they literally are out of options), and Warren as her odds will improve as well I think.

You might be right. It seems obvious to me that Trump is the significant favorite to beat Biden and the Democrats should be smart enough to figure that out. Winning presidential candidates---especially Democrats---should energize voters. Biden will fail to do that.

From the start, I never expected or predicted Sanders to run away with the race. I thought he was well-positioned to soak up ~30% of the delegates and cruise to a long and uneventful victory on the 2nd ballot. Warren's rise was not ideal for Sanders (imagine if Klobuchar had surged instead of Warren), but I feel she is taking more from Harris than from Sanders. I need Biden to falter. A lot of his voters will go to Sanders, in my estimation.

 

[longway]

I need Biden to falter.

That's like hoping for a KO. Biden is by no means a good choice, but they just don't have anyone else that has the name recognition as much as anything. Being Obama's avuncular sidekick is enough to push him over the edge barring major debacle, his tendency to gaffes is already priced in. So it would have to be a health scare.

BTW one line saw on 5 dimes was Trump winning the presidency and popular vote at +450 (weirdly winning the PV without the presidency is +250, I think that should be +1000 or something), and that is so tempting. I have a hypothesis that Trump would have either won or been very close to winning the popular vote if it wasn't for pussygate, I think it made a lot of his voters stay home, his hustle on the home stretch mitigated the fallout from pussygate, but he had no hope of fully recovering from that fiasco, so I think there is value in that line. I think I may stick a unit on it, more if the democrats go for impeachment proceedings.

 

[longway]

Btw, people on here mentioned Butiigieg, who I was unaware of previously, but is Castro being overlooked? Can he get a surge of support once the field narrows?

 

[Joedaman55]

So, is Harris fcuked? By the strength of the backlash against Gabbard, and the absurdity of the talking points used, I can't help thinking that Harris suffered a major blow. I think Harris is worth fading from this point. Do you guys agree or not?

This can only favour Buttigieg, Warren, and Biden, not so much Sanders as his base would not like Harris anyway.

No change for me, she might get a slight boost in the polls based on how crappy Biden did. I think Biden’s campaign is done, there’s no way you can run him against Trump after his last debate. Scott Adams on his podcast gave a great summary on it with the Poison Pill analogy. I agree with him on that.

Harris was always vulnerable on her harsh record as district attorney, people that knew about her before already knew that. It’s one of the reasons she’ll win because people want someone “tough” to beat Trump. She was going to get hit with that bomb sometime and it just happened, people won’t care much about this one as she was doing her job to uphold a punishment for a crime.

Sanders and Warren are too left and not electable (moderates will choose not to vote if they’re chosen similarly to how many Conservatives didn’t vote for McCain when he went against Obama). I don’t get much from Pete, he’s a pretty boring speaker most of the time with some clever punchlines here and there. There’s no Democratic candidate that is really motivating or inspiring which is pretty much what Michael Moore has been echoing. Harris prolly gives them the best shot to win but that shot is still way low against Trump.

 

[Joedaman55]

Btw, people on here mentioned Butiigieg, who I was unaware of previously, but is Castro being overlooked? Can he get a surge of support once the field narrows?

He will get a surge but I doubt he will get momentum to be a serious contender. He’s a very good debater but struggles in other areas of politics and doesn’t seem to motivate people outside of Latinos.

 

[longway]

No change for me, she might get a slight boost in the polls based on how crappy Biden did. I think Biden’s campaign is done, there’s no way you can run him against Trump after his last debate. Scott Adams on his podcast gave a great summary on it with the Poison Pill analogy. I agree with him on that.

Harris was always vulnerable on her harsh record as district attorney, people that knew about her before already knew that. It’s one of the reasons she’ll win because people want someone “tough” to beat Trump. She was going to get hit with that bomb sometime and it just happened, people won’t care much about this one as she was doing her job to uphold a punishment for a crime.

Sanders and Warren are too left and not electable (moderates will choose not to vote if they’re chosen similarly to how many Conservatives didn’t vote for McCain when he went against Obama). I don’t get much from Pete, he’s a pretty boring speaker most of the time with some clever punchlines here and there. There’s no Democratic candidate that is really motivating or inspiring which is pretty much what Michael Moore has been echoing. Harris prolly gives them the best shot to win but that shot is still way low against Trump.

That's an interesting take about Harris, but she has to deal with the Democrat primary voters who are generally more left than the general population first. Biden mops up the moderate dem vote. I wonder if the media's liberal bias is working against the DNC. Biden is clearly not fit for the job, but the media will not focus on his gaffes and poor cognitive function, so most people don't know that Biden is a walking talking senior moment as the media will it slide. Same with Harris, while it should have been obvious someone would go after her record, she had not prepared for it. A very serious oversight, again the media give a free pass to all establishment DNC candidates, especially the 'WoC' contingent, so they become detached from reality.

 

[Joedaman55]

That's an interesting take about Harris, but she has to deal with the Democrat primary voters who are generally more left than the general population first. Biden mops up the moderate dem vote. I wonder if the media's liberal bias is working against the DNC. Biden is clearly not fit for the job, but the media will not focus on his gaffes and poor cognitive function, so most people don't know that Biden is a walking talking senior moment as the media will it slide. Same with Harris, while it should have been obvious someone would go after her record, she had not prepared for it. A very serious oversight, again the media give a free pass to all establishment DNC candidates, especially the 'WoC' contingent, so they become detached from reality.

Aren’t most Democratic Primary selections done by caucus and progressives tend to be younger people, many younger people don’t know what a caucus is? Is the person most fit to be president generally elected president? Are media personalities good predictors?

I think you are being too influenced by the media on who they think will win. A common voter who knows nothing about politics is a better predictor than them. Just go with your gut on who inspires you most and matches up best with Trump. Also, get multiple perspectives from people who aren’t like you and that’ll give you a good idea who will win. Too much group think happens in the media which makes them blind to reality.

 

[longway]

^ But that was the point I was trying to make. Biden could be destroyed easily by the media, but they don't go after him, so most voters don't know how bad he is, so they just go by name recognition and they associate him with Obama, which works in his favour. Harris has to capture the Biden voter, and she tried, but as she has been surrounded by 'yaass slay qween' types, she never saw how exposed her flank was and looked weak.

The response by the Harris team has been largely unhinged drivel about Assad, and the usual Russia chorus by her supporters in the media. But it provoked a heavy backlash, so this made me think that Tulsi struck a heavy blow.

 

[Broe.]

Tulsi Gabbard is gonna be the big surprise!

 

[Joedaman55]

^ But that was the point I was trying to make. Biden could be destroyed easily by the media, but they don't go after him, so most voters don't know how bad he is, so they just go by name recognition and they associate him with Obama, which works in his favour. Harris has to capture the Biden voter, and she tried, but as she has been surrounded by 'yaass slay qween' types, she never saw how exposed her flank was and looked weak.

The response by the Harris team has been largely unhinged drivel about Assad, and the usual Russia chorus by her supporters in the media. But it provoked a heavy backlash, so this made me think that Tulsi struck a heavy blow.

The media is just entertainment for most people, they don’t vote by what they say. When I have groups of people telling me how old Biden looks now, he’s done.

I just don’t see the Tulsi thing as a big blow, the groups I talk to aren’t a fan of Harris but feel she matches up best with Trump when speaking 1v1. Most can’t even remember what the Tulsi conversation was about at this point in time.

 

[Roads55]

Biden is a huge risk to bet right now, he did look much improved and a lot of media thought he won the debate (or at least proclaimed it to make him look better) but he made so many mistakes and his focus started to fall apart at the end. there's still a long way to go yet in this race, he's only going to get worse in terms of faux pas's. he might be able to appear more energetic at the start of the debates but imo he's clearly to old to be president. he makes bernie and trump look 10 years younger

 

[longway]

The media is just entertainment for most people, they don’t vote by what they say. When I have groups of people telling me how old Biden looks now, he’s done.

I just don’t see the Tulsi thing as a big blow, the groups I talk to aren’t a fan of Harris but feel she matches up best with Trump when speaking 1v1. Most can’t even remember what the Tulsi conversation was about at this point in time.

Ah I get you. The more casual voter gets their news from TV or cable imo. So, if they don't highlight the negatives about a candidate, they will remain unaware. Harris needed the debates to have any chance of capturing some of his voters and building support off those performances, and that is much harder now. The polls I saw that Biden remained unchanged post debates and Harris dropped a few percent. She is a distant 4th, I cant see how she can make a breakthrough now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

Biden is a huge risk to bet right now

He is hopeless, but they all are. And he has the name recognition. Harris has blown up imo. So who is left if not him? Got to be Warren or Sanders now or a dark horse or surprise entry. The dnc have such a weak field as they have all coddled by sycophants in the media (except sanders), they do trump a massive favour by not weeding out or toughening up these losers beforehand. Harris thought she was a top tier candidate when she is actually relatively mediocre, and needs a lot of work before she is ready for the big time.

I think Sanders would be Trump's toughest opponent debate wise, but he doesn't have a wide appeal, and the dnc hate him and he has plenty of baggage from his past as a commie.