Political Betting Thread

Tbh I don't think most of them see it as a "disaster", but rather a small progression that didn't do nearly enough. It's generally viewed favorably, but a politician saying "let's just keep Obamacare" isn't very attractive to voters when it's a mere baseline of what they want to see.

The rebranding that is trying to be done is a disaster in my opinion. Obama is favorable with many Democrats and his brand on any sort of thing should benefit anything from a marketing standpoint. When it’s being portrayed negatively with his name is a very big problem for Moderate Democrats.
 
Sanders getting bet more now, down to around 7.8-8.2, not sure his appearance on jre moved the line much if at all, but it was a good indicator to bet him at the time imo. looks like biden is bleeding away his poll numbers also.
 
Sanders getting bet more now, down to around 7.8-8.2, not sure his appearance on jre moved the line much if at all, but it was a good indicator to bet him at the time imo. looks like biden is bleeding away his poll numbers also.

Biden managed to have more gaffes in one week than anyone I've seen in a long time, possibly including Trump. He's a disaster, and I think he's getting to a point where his numbers just keep bleeding.
 
Biden managed to have more gaffes in one week than anyone I've seen in a long time, possibly including Trump. He's a disaster, and I think he's getting to a point where his numbers just keep bleeding.

Agreed, he will keep making gaffe after gaffe. and no one has even attacked him on all the inappropriate touching of women and kids stuff yet.
 
wow lot's of odds movement today.

biden drifting to 4.2,
warren now the clear fav at 3.65,
sanders down to 7.0,
harris out to 8.4
buttigieg unchanged at around 15.0.
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...one-who-beats-trump?__twitter_impression=true

Joe Biden’s strongest selling point -- that he’s the most likely to beat Donald Trump -- is losing some of its edge, as Elizabeth Warren vaults into second place because a growing number of Democrats think she can win the general election.

My Warren bet looking good. I don't think they will be able to convince Biden to withdraw, he will go down fighting, but I think his mental decline will push people toward Warren.

I think Harris is also another zombie candidate that will fall apart over the course of the primary process.

My spidey sense is telling me it will be a Warren and Buttigieg presidential ticket. An odd couple liberal dream ticket of a vagina and batty boy that for some reason gets their base excited and also welds together the moderate and progressive wings of the dnc <Moves>
 
Fortunately for Biden he can swim in corporate money for as long as he's in the running. They're not gonna back out till it becomes obvious he's not going to win.
yep, but at the same time it's indicative of his lack of popularity amongst dem voters who seem to prefer him for his perceived chances of beating trump rather than actually liking him. I'm curious if that will actually translate into votes if people aren't genuinely into him and his policies. This could be a sign that a good % of his supporters are more on the fence than we realized and are more susceptible to changing their vote to another candidate they can actually relate too.
 
yep, but at the same time it's indicative of his lack of popularity amongst dem voters who seem to prefer him for his perceived chances of beating trump rather than actually liking him. I'm curious if that will actually translate into votes if people aren't genuinely into him and his policies. This could be a sign that a good % of his supporters are more on the fence than we realized and are more susceptible to changing their vote to another candidate they can actually relate too.

I think they are. And to your first point, his wife hilariously said last night that other candidates are better on policy, but he's more electable. To a lot of dems right now, the priority is beating Trump. No one actually cares about Joe Biden. There's no "Biden stans". They've just had it drilled into their heads that Biden's bland and inoffensive brand of politics is the winning strategy. Once he starts looking less and less electable (which Biden does a great job of doing by himself), they'll move to someone else.
 
Are there props anywhere on who the eventual VP choice will be? Or will that only happen when the primaries are over?

I've been thinking about this a lot. My #1 pick at this point would be Cory Booker. Not only is he extremely safe all around, and can help demographically in a race that's probably going to see a white man/woman as the nominee, but he really wants to be president. He's been building himself up for this for his whole career. Being VP would keep him relevant and in the national spotlight until it's his turn, otherwise he can fade into irrelevance as a sorta-moderate sorta-progressive senator.
 
Are there props anywhere on who the eventual VP choice will be? Or will that only happen when the primaries are over?

I've been thinking about this a lot. My #1 pick at this point would be Cory Booker. Not only is he extremely safe all around, and can help demographically in a race that's probably going to see a white man/woman as the nominee, but he really wants to be president. He's been building himself up for this for his whole career. Being VP would keep him relevant and in the national spotlight until it's his turn, otherwise he can fade into irrelevance as a sorta-moderate sorta-progressive senator.

not seen that anywhere so far. wouldn't hurt to request it at a few book though.
 
With Biden slipping as predicted, Sanders is right where I need him to be. Elizabeth is the only threat to my bets that I see. I do not believe Harris has a chance to win.

As Biden dies, Sanders should gain slightly more than anyone else. This is good for me.

If Harris doesn't rebound, Elizabeth could lock up the "angry female" vote. This is a sprawling group that could doom me.

I think I need Harris to claw herself back to a respectable position. The good thing is that I think Harris can do that. She's younger, darker-skinned, a professional prosecutor, a female, and knows how to pander. I think she will learn from her horrible debate performance. There is still plenty of time for her to get it back together.

Again, my theory of the race is that the field is weak and divided. Sanders has the highest floor despite having a low ceiling, and that floor is high enough to win a plurality of delegates. I think that's all he needs. The rise of Elizabeth was a surprise (and not organic, most likely) and I wish it had been someone like Klobuchar instead, but I still think Sanders is in a strong position. Finally, as the field narrows, Buttigieg has massive potential for a breakout.


My current bets:

April 15...... Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 .......Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
 
Finally, as the field narrows, Buttigieg has massive potential for a breakout.

I think we're getting to a point where Buttigieg's gonna slip out of the race, actually. His only hope is some sort of mass exodus from one of the stronger candidates to him, and specifically him. His polling numbers have been either stagnant or dropping over the past few months, and when you're sitting in the mid-single digits by this point, it's going to take something big to push you forward. He seems like a relatively attractive candidate to the DNC establishment, but he's also been performing worse than all the frontrunners in general election polling. He's probably not going to break out organically, he has to really step up on either his attacks or on a unique policy platform, and I just don't see him as the type who will do so effectively.
 
I think we're getting to a point where Buttigieg's gonna slip out of the race, actually. His only hope is some sort of mass exodus from one of the stronger candidates to him, and specifically him. His polling numbers have been either stagnant or dropping over the past few months, and when you're sitting in the mid-single digits by this point, it's going to take something big to push you forward. He seems like a relatively attractive candidate to the DNC establishment, but he's also been performing worse than all the frontrunners in general election polling. He's probably not going to break out organically, he has to really step up on either his attacks or on a unique policy platform, and I just don't see him as the type who will do so effectively.
I completely disagree.

Buttigieg's campaign is loaded with cash and he's at no risk of failing to make future the debates. After the field winnows, we'll probably end up among a group of five on the debate stage: Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, Biden.

Imagine a handsome and articulate 38-year-old on stage next to three septuagenarians and an angry pandering 50-something woman. The optics will be great for him. As for policy, he's "wonkier" than all the rest. He won't be losing policy debates for lack of detail.
 
I completely disagree.

Buttigieg's campaign is loaded with cash and he's at no risk of failing to make future the debates. After the field winnows, we'll probably end up among a group of five on the debate stage: Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, Biden.

Imagine a handsome and articulate 38-year-old on stage next to three septuagenarians and an angry pandering 50-something woman. The optics will be great for him. As for policy, he's "wonkier" than all the rest. He won't be losing policy debates for lack of detail.

Imo "loaded with cash" now doesn't mean what it used to, unless you have massive name recognition like Hillary or Biden.

I also don't think basic optics is a big enough factor here. He needs to have a lot more happen. He plays the game too carefully, trying to not alienate anybody, for him to stand out himself. He hasn't seen rising poll numbers for the past 4-5 months, while Warren moves up, Kamala rises and falls, and Biden gradually slips. That can't be ignored. And when it comes down to it, I don't think the DNC folks will ignore his poor general election polling even if their instinct is that he's electable.

This could be a unique election, but Nate Silver even pointed out that candidates polling at <5% at this point in the race have only won 2% of the time. Buttigieg's averaging about 5% right now. Yes there's still time, but his breakout period should've already happened and he failed to truly claim a significant base. Banking on future dropouts' supporters maybe coming to you as an alternative isn't a great strategy if you're not already winning enough people over. Without some huge event, big shift in strategy, or huge debate performance (i.e. Kamala's first debate) beyond just doing "good", he's going to be running a doomed campaign into Iowa.
 
Imo "loaded with cash" now doesn't mean what it used to, unless you have massive name recognition like Hillary or Biden.

I also don't think basic optics is a big enough factor here. He needs to have a lot more happen. He plays the game too carefully, trying to not alienate anybody, for him to stand out himself. He hasn't seen rising poll numbers for the past 4-5 months, while Warren moves up, Kamala rises and falls, and Biden gradually slips. That can't be ignored. And when it comes down to it, I don't think the DNC folks will ignore his poor general election polling even if their instinct is that he's electable.

This could be a unique election, but Nate Silver even pointed out that candidates polling at <5% at this point in the race have only won 2% of the time. Buttigieg's averaging about 5% right now. Yes there's still time, but his breakout period should've already happened and he failed to truly claim a significant base. Banking on future dropouts' supporters maybe coming to you as an alternative isn't a great strategy if you're not already winning enough people over. Without some huge event, big shift in strategy, or huge debate performance (i.e. Kamala's first debate) beyond just doing "good", he's going to be running a doomed campaign into Iowa.
Assuming Elizabeth has a fairly low ceiling (NB this is my biggest assumption and one I am not sure of), the field is so divided that a unifier who stands out on the surface features (appearance, articulateness) and can bridge some of the policy gaps (e.g., "Medicare for All who want it") is in prime position to open up a lead and never look back. Buttigieg is the only one I can see pulling it off. Can you imagine anyone else pulling way ahead and never looking back?
 
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