Hey Macpherson 911, good question. First sports betting is not the same as the stock market, but some ideas concepts and a lot the theory are pretty much the same. So defining the price of a stock, the process is pretty much the same as defining the price of a fighter the only thing that changes are the variables. I have my own method for handicapping fights and there are other profitable guys that have different ones, there isn’t one right way to do things there’s the way that works for you.
Like a stock, part is math and process (things I take into account trying to reach the total number of a fighters odds to win a certain fight) and the other part is art. The art thing is tricky because it’s no really easy to teach or to grasp, it comes out of experience and that’s the gut feeling you mentioned it. So answering in part, no it’s not just math and process, but also it’s not just using my ‘instincts’ it’s a combination of both, people who are very good in one or the other will be profitable long term in this game, but the crushers will be the guys who will be able to navigate in both skillsets.
You asked where I learned that, so sharing a bit of my history and how experience is really important in all of this. I’m 20 years old, I’m a law student, I also run a small investments fund in the sports market, where I operate MMA and Football. I’ve been a professional online poker player from ages 16 to 19, where I made my bankroll and learn the theory behind gambling. Having solid experience and knowledge dealing w concepts like Variance, Standard Deviation is very important to having success in sportsbetting but even more import is having those informations learned in the stage of unconscious competence (only way to do that, is dealing w it in long periods of time and exercising it constantly what we call experience.)
Explaining where my lines come from. I use a three stage process, example bellow is from next weeks card the Dos Anjos x Leon Edwards bout.
Rafael Dos Anjos x Leon Edwards
ML: 60% x 40%
Props: None
Market: the market should open with lines close to evens, Dos Anjos is historically undervalued and Edwards has hype behind him. I believe Dos Anjos will open as a small underdog +100 to +110 which is great value, if he opens an even bigger dog is amazing value. If he opens the favorite I would play him at maximum (55%) and since it’s close to my margin a small play like 0.5u
(How I acted on it, he opened at +137 which in my view is great value, and I’ve bet 1.8u on him at that price.)
Describing the three stages
ML: is my prediction of a fighters chance to win the fight, usually I use margins ( 5% for more or less) bc it’s very difficult to reach an exact number at a fight, but sometimes I’m very confident in a straight up number and use it, and there’s also fights that it’s very tough to handicap so I use 10% margins or more if necessary.
Props: is if a fighter has clear path to victory and I think it’s worth keeping it under my radar, many fights a guy wins a huge % of the time by decision, even tho he wins in different ways as well it’s worth to play just his dec line(or depending the difference between your line and the market it’s worth to play his ML and add on his Dec prop), bc the price could be so much better that justifies even the times that he may ended up winning another way. I am a huge fan of props.
Market: I try to predict how the market is going to open based on the hype and history of both fighters, and how I’m gonna act on the lines when they opened. This is one of the most important parts bc it keeps following my game plan (at least most of the time).
You’re question is more directed to how to get to the % of each fighters, and to do that for me is:
comparing paths to victory, likelihood of them to happen, comparing fighters skills like Takedowns and Takedown defense.
Skills on the ground, both on top and on the bottom, does this guy you’re analyzing have good getups or is he a turtle when he reaches the ground, how is his sub game? Offensively and defensively.
Skills on the feet is him very hitable, does he defend himself well enough? Is him a good striker, he’s combos are sound or are just a bunch of loose punches?
How is his conditioning, does he gas himself easily? Can he go the distance with the same pace.
How is his fight IQ? I’ve listed some of the variables( there are others like momentum, age, it’s so many things really) that I look on a fighter and contrast that to his opponents to get to a number. An important one as well is, how do their games matchup?
With time, when you watch tape every week, and do this analyses frequently this all becomes pretty much automatic. Your mind is searching for all this answers without even requiring much conscious effort, but if you are inexperienced in all that, try to do your tape analysis very very focused that you will develop skill in that. And using that unconscious competence and reaching that number is the art part, your instinct when well trained, and put to good use is your best friend. This last card I made a bet on John Allan +330 0.4u, the lines were more wide than I thought they should be, but basic it was my gut telling it was worth it, we are irrational beasts that have the power to use the rational. Mixing the both is where greatness lies. Good luck trying to make your own lines, hope this helped.
