The Ponies Thread (part 2)

mkess101 said:
Hey I did straight boxes (no key) on all these. Just saw I cashed that last one for a nice hit on the exacta. Sweet!
Click to expand...

Great job on boxing them, Mike. It's not too often when someone can hit the exacta with a 13/1 horse over a 20/1 horse, so well done my friend.
 
Got these done last night @t6p, @BluntTrauma21, so I might as well get them to you early and post them.

Remington Park for Wed, Sept 12th;

==========

Race 5 (6:58);

#3 Air Assault 9/2 (S) ************ EP-77.4, SP-79.5, WP-79.2, FCS-97.4, AVG-83.4
#4 Polka Joke 3/1 (S) ************* EP-79.4, SP-78.9, WP-78.4, FCS-94.8, AVG-82.9
#5 Linnaeus 4/1 (E) *************** EP-82.2, SP-75.9, WP-78.0, FCS-87.6, AVG-80.9
#7 Give Me Excitation 5/1 (E/P) *** EP-73.8, SP-74.4, WP-72.8, FCS-89.0, AVG-77.5
#8 K Kash 7/2 (P) ***************** EP-73.4, SP-73.6, WP-71.7, FCS-89.6, AVG-77.1
#6 Lord Toccet 8/1 (P) ************ EP-68.8, SP-72.0, WP-70.0, FCS-86.0, AVG-74.2
#1 Euripides 20/1 (P) ************* EP-65.0, SP-71.1, WP-69.2, FCS-76.2, AVG-70.4
#9 K Kiddo 15/1 (S) *************** EP-63.8, SP-67.9, WP-64.1, FCS-79.6, AVG-68.9
#2 Go Stealth 15/1 (E/P) ********** EP-72.6, SP-70.8, WP-69.2, FCS-53.2, AVG-66.5

==========

Race 6 (7:25);

#2 N C C Jack 6/1 (E/P) ****** EP-82.8, SP-77.0, WP-78.7, FCS-72.6, AVG-77.8
#4 Notation 12/1 (P) ********* EP-75.8, SP-76.7, WP-77.6, FCS-76.0, AVG-76.5
#6 Star in Charge 6/5 (S) **** EP-77.2, SP-75.6, WP-72.4, FCS-80.5, AVG-76.4
#9 Chocolate Czech 15/1 (E) ** EP-77.7, SP-78.7, WP-76.4, FCS-68.6, AVG-75.4
#1 Divine Dancer 9/2 (S) ***** EP-72.4, SP-77.3, WP-77.0, FCS-74.1, AVG-75.2
#3 Dun Sober 12/1(E) ******** EP-82.2, SP-74.7, WP-77.0, FCS-65.7, AVG-74.9
#8 Towering Oak 10/1 (P) ***** EP-79.4, SP-71.2, WP-71.5, FCS-76.4, AVG-74.6
#5 Get the Bling 8/1 (E/P) *** EP-75.0, SP-71.5, WP-71.4, FCS-70.4, AVG-72.1
#7 Storm Galaxy 20/1 (E) ***** EP-72.0, SP-64.6, WP-63.5, FCS-37.6, AVG-59.4

==========

Race 8 (8:19);

#1 Driven West 8/5 (E) ********** EP-97.2, SP-82.2, WP-82.5, FCS-88.1, AVG-87.5
#2 Hardworkcleanlivin 2/1 (S) *** EP-85.4, SP-84.8, WP-84.7, FCS-93.5, AVG-87.1
#5 Addaichi 15/1 (P) ************ EP-86.0, SP-80.4, WP-81.0, FCS-89.2, AVG-84.2
#7 Tre Lee Divine 10/1 (P) ****** EP-81.8, SP-76.9, WP-79.7, FCS-86.5, AVG-81.2
#3 Outatime 15/1 (S) ************ EP-79.0, SP-80.2, WP-79.6, FCS-83.2, AVG-80.5
#4 Shystermeister 6/1 (P) ******* EP-70.6, SP-74.0, WP-71.4, FCS-85.1, AVG-75.3
#10 Krusin for Gold 12/1 (P) **** EP-67.4, SP-73.7, WP-73.6, FCS-85.9, AVG-75.2
#8 Bosque County 30/1 (E/P) ***** EP-78.7, SP-73.5, WP-74.0, FCS-68.2, AVG-73.6
#6 He's So Awesome 20/1 (P) ***** EP-75.0, SP-71.5, WP-70.8, FCS-70.0, AVG-71.8
#9 John Allen 20/1 (E) ********** EP-77.6, SP-66.8, WP-70.4, FCS-63.2, AVG-69.5

==========
 
Parx, Finger Lakes, Thistledown, etc were all ran in the muck today, and with a good chance of it being the same for tomorrow at most tracks I'm not even going to bother.
 
Sharkey said:
Got these done last night @t6p, @BluntTrauma21, so I might as well get them to you early and post them.

Remington Park for Wed, Sept 12th;

==========

Race 5 (6:58);

#3 Air Assault 9/2 (S) ************ EP-77.4, SP-79.5, WP-79.2, FCS-97.4, AVG-83.4
#4 Polka Joke 3/1 (S) ************* EP-79.4, SP-78.9, WP-78.4, FCS-94.8, AVG-82.9
#5 Linnaeus 4/1 (E) *************** EP-82.2, SP-75.9, WP-78.0, FCS-87.6, AVG-80.9
#7 Give Me Excitation 5/1 (E/P) *** EP-73.8, SP-74.4, WP-72.8, FCS-89.0, AVG-77.5
#8 K Kash 7/2 (P) ***************** EP-73.4, SP-73.6, WP-71.7, FCS-89.6, AVG-77.1
#6 Lord Toccet 8/1 (P) ************ EP-68.8, SP-72.0, WP-70.0, FCS-86.0, AVG-74.2
#1 Euripides 20/1 (P) ************* EP-65.0, SP-71.1, WP-69.2, FCS-76.2, AVG-70.4
#9 K Kiddo 15/1 (S) *************** EP-63.8, SP-67.9, WP-64.1, FCS-79.6, AVG-68.9
#2 Go Stealth 15/1 (E/P) ********** EP-72.6, SP-70.8, WP-69.2, FCS-53.2, AVG-66.5

==========

Race 6 (7:25);

#2 N C C Jack 6/1 (E/P) ****** EP-82.8, SP-77.0, WP-78.7, FCS-72.6, AVG-77.8
#4 Notation 12/1 (P) ********* EP-75.8, SP-76.7, WP-77.6, FCS-76.0, AVG-76.5
#6 Star in Charge 6/5 (S) **** EP-77.2, SP-75.6, WP-72.4, FCS-80.5, AVG-76.4
#9 Chocolate Czech 15/1 (E) ** EP-77.7, SP-78.7, WP-76.4, FCS-68.6, AVG-75.4
#1 Divine Dancer 9/2 (S) ***** EP-72.4, SP-77.3, WP-77.0, FCS-74.1, AVG-75.2
#3 Dun Sober 12/1(E) ******** EP-82.2, SP-74.7, WP-77.0, FCS-65.7, AVG-74.9
#8 Towering Oak 10/1 (P) ***** EP-79.4, SP-71.2, WP-71.5, FCS-76.4, AVG-74.6
#5 Get the Bling 8/1 (E/P) *** EP-75.0, SP-71.5, WP-71.4, FCS-70.4, AVG-72.1
#7 Storm Galaxy 20/1 (E) ***** EP-72.0, SP-64.6, WP-63.5, FCS-37.6, AVG-59.4

==========

Race 8 (8:19);

#1 Driven West 8/5 (E) ********** EP-97.2, SP-82.2, WP-82.5, FCS-88.1, AVG-87.5
#2 Hardworkcleanlivin 2/1 (S) *** EP-85.4, SP-84.8, WP-84.7, FCS-93.5, AVG-87.1
#5 Addaichi 15/1 (P) ************ EP-86.0, SP-80.4, WP-81.0, FCS-89.2, AVG-84.2
#7 Tre Lee Divine 10/1 (P) ****** EP-81.8, SP-76.9, WP-79.7, FCS-86.5, AVG-81.2
#3 Outatime 15/1 (S) ************ EP-79.0, SP-80.2, WP-79.6, FCS-83.2, AVG-80.5
#4 Shystermeister 6/1 (P) ******* EP-70.6, SP-74.0, WP-71.4, FCS-85.1, AVG-75.3
#10 Krusin for Gold 12/1 (P) **** EP-67.4, SP-73.7, WP-73.6, FCS-85.9, AVG-75.2
#8 Bosque County 30/1 (E/P) ***** EP-78.7, SP-73.5, WP-74.0, FCS-68.2, AVG-73.6
#6 He's So Awesome 20/1 (P) ***** EP-75.0, SP-71.5, WP-70.8, FCS-70.0, AVG-71.8
#9 John Allen 20/1 (E) ********** EP-77.6, SP-66.8, WP-70.4, FCS-63.2, AVG-69.5

==========
Click to expand...

Thanks Shark!
 
Shark if you get a minute could you quick post what your actual plays will be at Remington? Thanks man!
 
mkess101 said:
Shark if you get a minute could you quick post what your actual plays will be at Remington? Thanks man!
Click to expand...

Those races aren't til tomorrow night, Mike, and I'll be following the odds live, so I won't be making any advance bets like I did yesterday. But I will be looking to play the horses who are good value and who rank high in both the WP and FCS categories since those are the two most significant ones. The EP and SP are really only for visualization on how a race may play out for the most part actually, and in fact, I don't know why I weighted them equal to the other two when compiling the averages. Those are already factored in the WP category anyways (along with sharpness, distance, field pace profile), so I'll have to change that for the next race I post. The WP and FCS are the key ones to look at.

As far as who I would be intersted in betting right now just based on their morning lines, it would be the #3 Air Assault in race 5 (tops in both WP and FCS and 9/2), although the #5 Linnaeus has the potential to be lone early speed as the only E type runner in the race and with an edge on early pace numbers. But others will see that too, and he'll likely be way overbet, especially considering his trainer (Asmussen) is going to automatically lower his price regardless of anything else. I wouldn't be shocked if the #5 is 2/1 or lower come post time, so I can see some value with the #3 there if the public plays this race like I think they will. The #4 Notation (12/1 and ranks 2nd in both WP and FCS) obviously looks like the value in race 6 based on the morning line, and then the #5 Addaichi (15/1, ranks 3rd and 2nd) looks like the same in race 8. But I'll have to see how the public bets the races before making the decisions, though. Some are going to get overbet and some underbet.
 
Sharkey said:
Those races aren't til tomorrow night, Mike, and I'll be following the odds live, so I won't be making any advance bets like I did yesterday. But I will be looking to play the horses who are good value and who rank high in both the WP and FCS categories since those are the two most significant ones. The EP and SP are really only for visualization on how a race may play out for the most part actually, and in fact, I don't know why I weighted them equal to the other two when compiling the averages. Those are already factored in the WP category anyways (along with sharpness, distance, field pace profile), so I'll have to change that for the next race I post. The WP and FCS are the key ones to look at.

As far as who I would be intersted in betting right now just based on their morning lines, it would be the #3 Air Assault in race 5 (tops in both WP and FCS and 9/2), although the #5 Linnaeus has the potential to be lone early speed as the only E type runner in the race and with an edge on early pace numbers. But others will see that too, and he'll likely be way overbet, especially considering his trainer (Asmussen) is going to automatically lower his price regardless of anything else. I wouldn't be shocked if the #5 is 2/1 or lower come post time, so I can see some value with the #3 there if the public plays this race like I think they will. The #4 Notation (12/1 and ranks 2nd in both WP and FCS) obviously looks like the value in race 6 based on the morning line, and then the #5 Addaichi (15/1, ranks 3rd and 2nd) looks like the same in race 8. But I'll have to see how the public bets the races before making the decisions, though. Some are going to get overbet and some underbet.
Click to expand...


Gotcha. Thanks Shark, I'll check in tomorrow and see what's up!
 
I probably won't bet the races but I think I'm going with the following for tonight's Remington Park contest:

Race 5: #3 Air Assault
Race 6: #2 N C C Jack
Race 8: #5 Addaichi

Good luck @Sharkey and @BluntTrauma21 if you're playing.
 
I'm on the 3/5/2 for the comp. Let's get it boys! Will watch the tote for best value on those races too, if I'm not busy at the time.
 
@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

I got the next night's races done as well, so might as well post those too. Just included the two important categories this time, but I can include EP and SP if you guys want for visualization purposes (running style designation can still suit that purpose somewhat). I don't want to give them the equal value in averages like I did before, though, since, as I was telling Mike, they're already included in the WP score.

Remington Park for Thurs, Sept 13th;

==========

Race 5 (Turf)(6:58);

#2 Stolen Candy 5/2 (E/P) **** WP-84.3, FCS-105.5, TOT-189.8
#3 Archie 9/2 (S) ************ WP-86.0, FCS-103.3, TOT-189.3
#7 Megans Lad 4/1 (E/P) ****** WP-81.9, FCS-100.3, TOT-182.2
#8 Bluesberry Beau 20/1 (S) ** WP-81.8, FCS-96.5, TOT-178.3
#5 Coastal Highway 5/1 (P) *** WP-80.2, FCS-94.8, TOT-175.0
#10 Otto's Dream 7/2 (E) ***** WP-76.2, FCS-96.6, TOT-172.8
#6 Port of Storms 10/1 (P) *** WP-75.7, FCS-89.6, TOT-165.3
#9 Whiskey Biz 20/1 (E) ****** WP-75.2, FCS-85.4, TOT-160.6
#1 Red Neck Okie 20/1 (E) **** WP-78.3, FCS-77.7, TOT-156.0
#4 Magna Breeze 30/1 (E) ***** WP-73.6, FCS-78.8, TOT-152.4

==========

Race 6 (7:25);

#5 Whoz Talkin Now 7/5 (S) *** WP-88.0, FCS-106.9, TOT-194.9
#6 Rippin Ride 10/1 (E) ****** WP-86.9, FCS-94.8, TOT-181.7
#2 Como Se Llama 2/1 (E) ***** WP-86.8, FCS-93.9, TOT-180.7
#7 Smoking Romance 10/1 (E) ** WP-86.3, FCS-90.1, TOT-176.4
#1 Gosple Abe 6/1 (P) ******** WP-79.5, FCS-94.6, TOT-174.1
#8 Gunsmoke N 12/1 (E/P) ***** WP-82.1, FCS-89.0, TOT-171.1
#3 Summer Appeal 20/1 (S) **** WP-81.4, FCS-87.3, TOT-168.7
#4 Cornfed 20/1 (S) ********** WP-80.3, FCS-84.6, TOT-164.9

==========

Race 7 (7:52);

#2 Memorial Drive 6/5 (E/P) ***** WP-80.1, FCS-102.7, TOT-182.8
#10 Kalalou 6/1 (E/P) *********** WP-81.1, FCS-91.8, TOT-172.9
#1 Backseat Promises 9/2 (S) **** WP-78.2, FCS-88.1, TOT-166.3
#6 Teaspoon 10/1 (E/P) ********** WP-72.8, FCS-89.8, TOT-162.6
#9 Telescopic Plan 5/1 (P) ****** WP-74.0, FCS-88.4, TOT-162.4
#5 Missysway 12/1 (E) *********** WP-75.3, FCS-80.6, TOT-155.9
#3 Lucky Rendezvous 20/1 (E/P) ** WP-72.9, FCS-71.9, TOT-144.8
#7 Mimi's Money 12/1 (S) ******** WP-67.8, FCS-76.8, TOT-144.6
#4 Astral Favor 20/1 (E/P) ****** WP-60.1, FCS-79.8, TOT-139.9
#8 Fire to Rain 30/1 (S) ******** WP-63.7, FCS-67.9, TOT-131.6

==========
 
Sharkey said:
@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

I got the next night's races done as well, so might as well post those too. Just included the two important categories this time, but I can include EP and SP if you guys want for visualization purposes (running style designation can still suit that purpose somewhat). I don't want to give them the equal value in averages like I did before, though, since, as I was telling Mike, they're already included in the WP score.

Remington Park for Thurs, Sept 13th;

==========

Race 5 (Turf)(6:58);

#2 Stolen Candy 5/2 (E/P) **** WP-84.3, FCS-105.5, TOT-189.8
#3 Archie 9/2 (S) ************ WP-86.0, FCS-103.3, TOT-189.3
#7 Megans Lad 4/1 (E/P) ****** WP-81.9, FCS-100.3, TOT-182.2
#8 Bluesberry Beau 20/1 (S) ** WP-81.8, FCS-96.5, TOT-178.3
#5 Coastal Highway 5/1 (P) *** WP-80.2, FCS-94.8, TOT-175.0
#10 Otto's Dream 7/2 (E) ***** WP-76.2, FCS-96.6, TOT-172.8
#6 Port of Storms 10/1 (P) *** WP-75.7, FCS-89.6, TOT-165.3
#9 Whiskey Biz 20/1 (E) ****** WP-75.2, FCS-85.4, TOT-160.6
#1 Red Neck Okie 20/1 (E) **** WP-78.3, FCS-77.7, TOT-156.0
#4 Magna Breeze 30/1 (E) ***** WP-73.6, FCS-78.8, TOT-152.4

==========

Race 6 (7:25);

#5 Whoz Talkin Now 7/5 (S) *** WP-88.0, FCS-106.9, TOT-194.9
#6 Rippin Ride 10/1 (E) ****** WP-86.9, FCS-94.8, TOT-181.7
#2 Como Se Llama 2/1 (E) ***** WP-86.8, FCS-93.9, TOT-180.7
#7 Smoking Romance 10/1 (E) ** WP-86.3, FCS-90.1, TOT-176.4
#1 Gosple Abe 6/1 (P) ******** WP-79.5, FCS-94.6, TOT-174.1
#8 Gunsmoke N 12/1 (E/P) ***** WP-82.1, FCS-89.0, TOT-171.1
#3 Summer Appeal 20/1 (S) **** WP-81.4, FCS-87.3, TOT-168.7
#4 Cornfed 20/1 (S) ********** WP-80.3, FCS-84.6, TOT-164.9

==========

Race 7 (7:52);

#2 Memorial Drive 6/5 (E/P) ***** WP-80.1, FCS-102.7, TOT-182.8
#10 Kalalou 6/1 (E/P) *********** WP-81.1, FCS-91.8, TOT-172.9
#1 Backseat Promises 9/2 (S) **** WP-78.2, FCS-88.1, TOT-166.3
#6 Teaspoon 10/1 (E/P) ********** WP-72.8, FCS-89.8, TOT-162.6
#9 Telescopic Plan 5/1 (P) ****** WP-74.0, FCS-88.4, TOT-162.4
#5 Missysway 12/1 (E) *********** WP-75.3, FCS-80.6, TOT-155.9
#3 Lucky Rendezvous 20/1 (E/P) ** WP-72.9, FCS-71.9, TOT-144.8
#7 Mimi's Money 12/1 (S) ******** WP-67.8, FCS-76.8, TOT-144.6
#4 Astral Favor 20/1 (E/P) ****** WP-60.1, FCS-79.8, TOT-139.9
#8 Fire to Rain 30/1 (S) ******** WP-63.7, FCS-67.9, TOT-131.6

==========
Click to expand...

You're the man Shark, thanks!
 
@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

A little heads up saying that we only have just over an hour left to get our picks in for tonight. Not sure we'll have any scratches out of those races since none have been done so on my site, and yet have for other races on the card.

And @mkess101 I'll still be looking to bet those same horses I mentioned to you yesterday. Probably each of them to W/P. But I also won't be making my final decision on whether I play or pass until the last second when some of the horses are already in the gate, so this is about the best I can do as far as advance goes.
 
Did a tiny bit of amateur capping with the basic numbers, hit a 12-1 horse earlier so I grew some balls and I'll say that I like the 4 horse to run well in the 3rd race at Remington to see if we can get em to hit the board at long odds. Probably gonna lose tho. Like the 7 and 1 horses at current price for small win bets as well.

edit: have a small place bet on the 1 as well. 7 horse prob not worth it anymore btw.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Did a tiny bit of amateur capping with the basic numbers, hit a 12-1 horse earlier so I grew some balls and I'll say that I like the 4 horse to run well in the 3rd race at Remington to see if we can get em to hit the board at long odds. Probably gonna lose tho. Like the 7 and 1 horses at current price for small win bets as well.

edit: have a small place bet on the 1 as well. 7 horse prob not worth it anymore btw.
Click to expand...

Yes, yes he did!

There's more money with your name on it tonight, Blunt. Go get it!
 
ugh missed everything there that's why I shouldn't post these. Ouch.
 
Alright on the 7 horse next then that'll be it for me until the tourney bets obv.
 
Hit a small place bet on the 7 at 5-1, chalk won but I got a lil something out of it again. Fun stuff!
 
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