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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Got the exacta here, and it came back #6, #3, #1A, #5 which is how I ranked them in order. May have ranked the field in order as well depending where the other two finished.
     
  2. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    "Double at Finger Lakes races 4 and 5 ($2) - #1 with #1, #3, #4, #7, #8"

    Got the double here with the #7 winning and I made a whole $1 in profit. Yay.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Race 6 at Finger Lakes;

    $4 exacta with the #3 over #4
    $2 trifecta with the #3 over #4 over #1
    $1 super with the #3 over #4 over #1 over #5
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Race 4 at Gulfstream;

    $5 to win on the #4
    $4 exacta with the #4 over #7
    $2 trifecta with the #4 over #7 over #8
    $1 super with the #4 over #7 over #8 over #5
     
  5. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Race 6 at Delaware Park;

    $2 trifecta with the #7 over #5 over #3
    $1 super with the #7 over #5 over #3 over #2
     
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Race 7 at Finger Lakes;

    $2 super with the #2 over #6 over #5 over #4
     
  7. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Yeah, I'm basically throwing darts since these races being cluttered up like this have my head spinning.
     
  8. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    That #1 horse at Finger Lakes just killed everything I had in play with a late run to just get there at the line.
     
  9. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This was close. Came back #7, #4, #5, #8.
     
  10. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Playing the #6 to win for $5 as well.
     
  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    And the #6 can't get out of the gate. Wonderful.
     
  12. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Race 8 at Finger Lakes - #2, #7 exacta box and then a #2, #3, #7 trifecta box

    Race 6 at Gulfstream - #5, #8 exacta box and then a #5, #6, #8 trifecta box
     
  13. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I'm blind betting the horses I have listed in bold before I head out to dinner;

    ==========

    Race 4 at Penn National (4:22);

    #1 Candy Pants 3/2 - 159.7
    #2 Moxie Momentum 5/1 - 157.8
    #6 Flashy Siren 4/1 - 155.3
    #4 Main Line Philly 6/1 - 154.2
    #3 Queen Stinker 6/1 - 151.4
    #5 Final Tale 9/2 - 144.3

    ==========

    Race 4 at Charles Town (5:24);

    #8 Cashton Peak 5/2 - 181.3
    #5 Blixt 5/1 - 171.0
    #7 Cosa Dolce 8/1 - 170.3
    #6 North Dubai 4/1 - 169.3
    #1 Our Charitable 10/1 - 166.9
    #4 Addys Castle 12/1 - 166.4
    #3 Primo Pentimento 8/1 - 166.2
    #2 Hotstormabrewing 15/1 - 159.5

    ==========

    Race 7 at Penn National (5:43);

    #4 Haitian Hill 5/2 - 185.4
    #7 Joey Cap 10/1 - 184.5
    #3 Prospector Alley 4/1 - 179.4
    #5 Jazzy's Quattro 3/1 - 179.1
    #6 Theyallcomehome 8/1 - 179.0
    #1 Bustin the Bank 6/1 - 178.2

    ==========

    Race 8 at Penn National (6:10);

    #5 Brians a Smarty 3/1 - 186.2
    #7 Ecliptical Jack 2/1 - 185.3
    #1 Jonamac 5/2 - 177.0
    #8 Cowtownblue 6/1 - 171.3
    #3 C U in the Circle 10/1 - 170.6
    #4 Let Me Sleep On It 20/1 - 163.8
    #6 Monor Grades 30/1 - 148.9

    ==========

    Race 7 at Charles Town (6:47);

    #3 Night Spree 9/5 - 206.6
    #7 Via Leone 5/2 - 205.8
    #8 Longstreak 6/1 - 197.0
    #5 Biography 8/1 - 195.3
    #4 Nova Boy 5/1 - 194.4
    #1 Charitable Hero 15/1 - 189.2
    #2 Siente El Viento 15/1 - 184.6

    ==========
     
  14. eataface Green Belt

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    Whoa theres a new thread
     
  15. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    8 horse ranked 3rd in the formula but sitting at 11-1 bet him to show. Bet the 3 horse to win instead b/c the odds flipped on the 7 barely even money on em.
     
  16. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Well that's what I get for going against the formula. Via Leone just murdered everyone. Might've nabbed show on the 8, not sure but dropped to 7-1 in the last min or so.

    edit I'm assuming if the rider gets bucked then the horse is auto dq'd? That horse ran an amazing race w/ no rider lol.
     
  17. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Btw the formula made that CT7 race almost perfectly, and Shark called the winner even tho he was rated an iota lower than the 3. Finished 7,3,8,5. Formula 3,7,8,5 in that order with barely a difference between the top two. Well played, Shark called it just about perfect.
     
  18. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I only bet the #7 because he was better odds on the morning line, bud. Got lucky there because if I was live betting I would have went with the #3 instead if he went off at slightly better odds than the #7.

    Looks like you did get your show bet on the #8 anyways. Not that it paid much mind you with the two favourites finishing 1st and 2nd.
     
  19. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Yeah didn't get paid much but more importantly your picks were just about perfect. Never realized how tricky playing the tote board is. Takes a certain timing and discipline separate of the capping itself.
     
  20. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Yeah, it's tough, Blunt. Odds can change so much even in the last 30 seconds before a race starts. Those making a sizable bet compared to the pool size usually get it in early so as to scare off others by dropping the odds way down. Or they'll get it in at the very last second. The biggest factor is probably those computer wagering programs, though. A ton of money comes in late via those things. Those are programmed to look for overlayed horses and bet them automatically at the very last second before the race starts. That race there had $31,000 in the win pool by the time the race started, and $8,000 of that came in during the last seconds before the race. At bigger tracks those computer wagering programs don't effect the odds that much late, but they can change it quite a bit at these smaller tracks.

    A good way to check what kind of odds your going to get on a horse you're interested in is to check the multi-race payouts, particularly the doubles. 9.5 times out of 10 the favourite in doubles will also be the favourite during the race you're planning to bet.
     

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