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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Ah gotcha, yeah man I see the clock on the board go down to a couple minutes and i take a horse at say, 8-1, next thing you know at post it's down to like 3-1 at the last sec. And the racebooks will cut me off early so I can't do anything about it anyway. Frustrating sometimes but now that you explain it it makes more sense.

    Thanks for that tip btw, that should help a lot. Obv I'm still a rookie with this stuff which I've realized I don't know shit, lol. But I'm trying to learn. Also do you have a link to free pp's that I can use? The one that I have seems to be blocked by brisnet or something.
     
  2. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Yeah, when you select a race just click on the address bar up top til it turns blue then hit enter. The race you're looking for should come up then.

    I've had a ton of horses get bet down at the last second, Blunt. It sucks. Sometimes I catch it in time and can cancel my bet. But sometimes the final odds don't appear until after the gates are already open and the horses are under way. A lot of times you'll see the odds change on a horse during the running of a race as well, which looks fishy as hell, but it's probably just a tabulating issue.

    I can send you a little formula I use to calculate fair odds if you want. It's pretty basic.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I just watched that race and that horse who lost the rider is a good example to show all the morons out there who say that these horses are being forced to do something they otherwise wouldn't. Almost every horse I've seen that's lost it's rider runs around the track with the other horses, although some do veer out in the turns at times without someone steering them. But most of the time they'll do what that horse did. Stay in formation, stay close to the rail and run through the finish line. And a whole bunch of them also do "finish" well in the running order too, but that's mainly because they have a big weight advantage on the field without a 120 lbs jockey on their back. Haha. Just doing what they were meant to do and having a little fun in the process.
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Playing a bunch of races today (and this evening) with double win bets in a lot of these races save for the ones where there looks like a standout;

    ==========

    Race 2 at Laurel Park (10:43);

    1- 79.9 Greely's Striker 5/2
    2- 79.6 Dorothyfromdublin 3/1
    3- 79.4 Missin Maggie 20/1
    7- 74.7
    6- 74.7
    5- 73.1

    ==========

    Race 2 at Belterra Park (10:50);

    3- 85.3 Triple Delight 3/1
    6- 84.9 Rontos Society 5/1
    5- 82.9 Wild Zambezi 5/2
    1- 79.4
    7- 75.6
    4- 71.4

    ==========

    Race 3 at Woodbine (11:13);

    3- 87.2 Worlds Your Oyster 6/1
    2- 87.0 Beautiful Street 9/5
    5- 84.5 Subzero Plus 3/1
    1- 83.1
    4- 82.8
    6- 82.6

    ==========

    Race 2 at Indiana Grand (11:33);

    6- 87.4 Blazer 9/2
    1- 84.0 Ubetterconizeson 9/2
    2- 83.8 C Js Billy Byu 9/5
    7- 81.5
    3- 77.3

    ==========
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2018
  5. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    ==========

    Race 3 at Belmont Park (11:37);

    6- 87.2 Tied Up 5/2
    4- 85.9 Proportionality 8/1
    2- 85.5 Pure Praise 4/1
    7- 80.4
    1- 79.4
    3- 79.3

    ==========

    Race 4 at Woodbine (11:46);

    4- 88.5 Court Battle 5/2
    5- 79.1 Seize the Bay 2/1
    6- 78.5 Greenfield 4/1
    3- 78.3
    2- 78.2
    1- 76.4
    7- 70.0

    ==========

    Race 3 at Arlington Park (12:14);

    5- 83.3 Katano 5/1
    1- 77.9 Itsprettystormy 10/1
    3- 77.4 Lt Dan Attack 8/1
    2- 75.4
    7- 75.3
    4- 73.6
    6- 70.4

    ==========

    Race 5 at Belterra Park (12:20);

    3- 88.6 Flying Frank 5/2
    1- 79.8 Boss Man Bob 8/1
    7- 79.1 Retractable 8/1
    2- 75.9
    6- 74.4
    5- 71.2

    ==========
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2018
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    ==========

    Race 6 at Laurel Park (12:49);


    6- 89.0 Renaissance Rosie 2/1
    3- 87.0 If I Was a Boy 12/1
    4- 86.6 D J's Favorite 5/2
    5- 85.4
    2- 83.6

    ==========

    Race 4 at Arlington Park (12:51);

    6- 89.9 Je Suis Belle 7/2
    3- 88.1 Supercede 3/1
    1- 85.4 Betruetoyourschool 9/2
    8- 83.9
    5- 81.0
    2- 80.2

    ==========

    Race 6 at Belmont Park (1:14);

    6- 93.4 Lady Bergen 2/1
    7- 92.0 Satisfy 5/2
    3- 91.7 Baby Boss 8/1
    2- 89.1
    4- 88.1
    5- 83.9

    ==========

    Race 1 at Golden Gate (1:15);

    1- 87.2 Blessed Lady 2/1
    4- 86.9 I Love Romance 7/2
    6- 84.9 Lucky Antares 5/1
    2- 84.6
    5- 84.0
    3- 81.4

    ==========
     
  7. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    ==========

    Race 6 at Gulfstream (1:30);

    9- 83.6 Miss Casuarina 3/1
    4- 82.2 Star Milly 10/1
    5- 80.4 High End Lady 4/1
    2- 79.2
    1- 78.4
    3- 77.4
    8- 76.4
    10- 76.4
    7- 75.4
    6- 75.0

    ==========

    Race 8 at Laurel Park (1:51);

    1- 86.0 In Him With Him 5/1
    8- 83.6 J.J.'s Candy 3/1
    4- 82.7 Blame the Kids 10/1
    5- 79.4
    7- 78.1
    3- 77.4
    9- 77.4
    2- 73.4

    ==========

    Race 8 at Woodbine (1:57);

    5- 88.6 Waldorf 1/1
    3- 87.6 Executive Sight 5/1
    6- 82.3 Majestic Fever 3/1
    1- 80.6
    7- 79.6
    4- 77.3
    2- 74.6

    ==========

    Race 7 at Arlington Park (2:25);

    4- 91.6 Unscathed 8/5
    6- 90.6 Wake Up Joe 3/1
    7- 87.1 Scarlet City 9/2
    5- 86.6
    3- 85.6
    1- 80.5

    ==========
     
  8. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    A lot of the scratches for those races are already accounted for, but there are tracks like Belterra, Gulfstream, and Golden Gate which don't have them listed yet on my site.
     
  9. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I'm not posting any actual bets in advance because some of these races are bunched up and such (what I really mean is that Sherdog is a curse), but I'll be basically playing two of the three horses I have listed for each race that represent the best value. Maybe only one horse offers any value for a race, though, so I'll just play that alone if I have to.
     
  10. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    e.g. Both the #1 and #3 are offering value in race 2 at Laurel with a couple minutes to post. The #2 not so much.
     
  11. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    on the same ones, thanks for all the picks, Shark. GL!
     
  12. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    ouch that one hurt.
     
  13. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Very nice. Proportionality crushes them at almost 7/1.

    ==========

    Race 3 at Belmont Park (11:37);

    6- 87.2 Tied Up 5/2
    4- 85.9 Proportionality 8/1
    2- 85.5 Pure Praise 4/1
    7- 80.4
    1- 79.4
    3- 79.3

    ==========
     
  14. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Proportionality hits at 10-1, no biggie :)
     
  15. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    You got 10/1. Well shit. Congrats bud.
     
  16. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Oops nah got 7-1 like you, tote board didn't change it down in time. Still a very nice payout. Great call.
     
  17. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Court Battle was a free bingo space, so I took it. 7/5 was okay considering the edge it had on the field.

    ==========

    Race 4 at Woodbine (11:46);

    4- 88.5 Court Battle 5/2
    5- 79.1 Seize the Bay 2/1
    6- 78.5 Greenfield 4/1
    3- 78.3
    2- 78.2
    1- 76.4
    7- 70.0

    ==========
     
  18. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Missed that one but took him for the same reason. 9pts at better than evens, I'll go for it. Another nice call. I actually hit Blazer too but it happened so quick I didn't see the odds on it.
     
  19. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    It's great that you're following the tote board, bud, and trying to find that value.
     
  20. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I ended up passing on that race myself with the favourite scratching. The only two horses I was interested in going in went off at below even money I think. Blazer was one of them, but he was way too low for my liking. Nice to see you got some cash from him, though.
     

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