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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    There was $55,000 in the win pool that race in total for all the horses. $41,000 of that came within the last minute.
     
  2. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Holy shit man. That's a great fact. Some guy on the racing channel on tv was just saying ppl will wait literally until the last few secs to make their bets so they don't give it away. Is most of that sharp money, would you say? I think you've said they get in real early or real late usually so I'm guessing more of it than not is sharp...

    edit plus that's a ton of money compared to the size of the pool so they must be much bigger bets than avg.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Yeah, sharp money gets in either very early or very late. When they get it in early they're trying to put people off the horse by deflated the odds so much that they look unappealing to those who may have liked the horse. Most sharp people wait as late as they can, and that's also when the computer wagering programs make their bets as well. I try to wait til the last second too and usually get my bets in when apx half the horses have loaded into the gates, but I still get screwed on my price quite often. It goes the other way at times as well when you get a much better price than you thought you'd get, so it's not all bad.
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Maybe we'll get you to do some tote board watching at one of the tracks with bigger pools like Belmont or something, bud. Those pools will see most of the money come in before the last minute (maybe one-third comes in very late), so you'll have a much better idea on what odds you get come post time.
     
  5. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Problem for me is that my book/s shut me down a good minute [or possibly longer for some races] before they even start. They'll start loading into the gate and for some races I get cut off or have to try to place the bet multiple times before they accept. Very frustrating but I'll try to figure out some tricks and stuff. Sounds good with the larger pools, thanks.
     
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    There's always the double payouts to guide you too, Blunt. I find that to be the best indicator of where the money is going to go. If your site doesn't offer them to you you can find them here;

    https://www.drf.com/live_odds

    Click the race you want, click on the will pays and the doubles should be there if they were offered up for that two race sequences (most races are).
     
  7. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    @BluntTrauma21

    e.g. For this next race at Assiniboia Downs the pick 3 will pays say that that the #1 and #2 horses are going to be very similar odds and vying for favouritsm. The #3 horse should be about twice their odds come post time, and the other two are going to be big longshots. People making multi-race wagers like that tend to play single win wagers on the races as well. The only thing that will put that out of whack is if there is a sizable bet on a horse like what we saw with Percolator in that last race.
     
  8. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    thank you and thanks for being patient with me as well. I know I can ask questions you've already answered and kind of go around in circles sometimes.
     
  9. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Any time, bud. Keep asking whatever you need to, and I'll always try to answer. This shit isn't easy by any means. The key with this game is betting the right horses with the right bet structuring at the right odds, and there's a ton of factors at work in doing so. Even the best handicappers out there lose their bets much more often than they win them. It can be insanely complicated for someone just getting started, so I'll pass on whatever you need if I can.
     
  10. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    And I passed on this race. The #3 got the late money and that was the one I was interested in.
     
  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Gonna play the #7 to win for $4 in race 6 at Assiniboia Downs, and then a #7 over #3, #4. #5 super for $1 each.
     
  12. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    How the hell do I not hang on there with that #10 horse at Emerald? Jesus.
     
  13. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    The #2 horse scratched and the #4 horse is getting way overbet in race 5 at Emerald Downs, so that's it for me today. Down a whole $0.70 after all these races. :rolleyes:
     
  14. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    A lot of work for an even day, sorry Shark. Thanks for all the plays it was fun watching the ponies with you as always, my friend. Have a good one buddy.
     
  15. t6p Brown Belt

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    @Sharkey @BluntTrauma21

    Jealous I didn’t get to play along today. Any day where you don’t lose is a winning day in my mind. So nice job guys.

    And RIP Mac Miller. That was a talented dude and a real loss.
     
  16. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Don't yet have the energy to do a huge amount of races again today, so I'm limiting to just a few this morning;

    ==========

    Race 1 at Woodbine (10:05);

    #6 Undercover Cat 7/2 **** E-93.4, S-88.4, W-90.8, PP-118.8, AVG-97.9
    #4 Forester's Forum 6/1 ** E-96.2, S-83.6, W-89.8, PP-118.9, AVG-97.1
    #7 Sniper 2/1 ************ E-90.0, S-87.6, W-88.1, PP-122.3, AVG-97.0
    #1 R U Watchingbud 20/1 ** E-85.8, S-86.6, W-87.2, PP-121.5, AVG-95.3
    #5 Virga 3/1 ************* E-88.4, S-84.7, W-82.9, PP-115.4, AVG-92.9
    #2 Bear on Fire 12/1 ***** E-87.2, S-79.9, W-79.4, PP-110.6, AVG-89.3
    #8 Dani's Victory 8/1 **** E-78.2, S-80.6, W-79.0, PP-112.8, AVG-87.7

    ==========

    Race 2 at Belmont (11:01);

    #6 Extinct Charm 15/1 *** E-96.8, S-85.5, W-87.2, PP-127.8, AVG-99.3
    #2 Top of the Page 5/2 ** E-90.2, S-86.9, W-90.8, PP-125.8, AVG-98.4
    #5 Turco Bravo 2/1 ****** E-82.8, S-86.9, W-89.0, PP-129.0, AVG-96.9
    #4 Karma Delight 12/1 *** E-92.0, S-85.6, W-87.1, PP-122.9, AVG-96.9
    #1 My Cousin Lou 6/1 **** E-82.8, S-84.7, W-85.4, PP-127.1, AVG-95.0
    #3 Sumner 5/1 *********** E-84.6, S-84.3, W-82.6, PP-126.1, AVG-94.4

    ==========

    Race 5 at Belmont (12:36);

    #7 Truly a Moon Shot 9/2 ** E-93.6, S-87.0, W-89.3, PP-115.2, AVG-96.3
    #3 Zap Zap Zap 3/1 ******** E-87.8, S-87.0, W-86.6, PP-121.9, AVG-95.8
    #8 Appealing Henry 6/1 **** E-90.2, S-85.4, W-86.1, PP-119.2, AVG-95.2
    #9 Cavallotto 4/1 ********* E-79.4, S-84.0, W-82.4, PP-122.4, AVG-92.1
    #2 Pretentious 7/2 ******** E-85.0, S-86.1, W-77.9, PP-110.0, ABG-89.8
    #6 Quai Voltaire 12/1 ***** E-82.2, S-81.4, W-80.3, PP-113.5, AVG-89.4
    #1 Hokulea 8/1 ************ E-78.8, S-80.6, W-79.1, PP-113.3, AVG-88.0
    #5 Ninetyeighttwo 15/1 **** E-80.4, S-77.4, W-77.9, PP-111.8, AVG-86.9
    #4 Fun Prospect 20/1 ****** E-81.4, S-77.0, W-78.5, PP-107.2, AVG-86.0

    ==========
     
  17. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Thinking I'll just W/P these three races today.
     
  18. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Lost the photo with Undercover Cat by a couple inches there at Woodbine at 9/2, but thankfully I had him backed up to place.
     
  19. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Shit, I just missed race 2 at Belmont. I thought it was happening at 11:05, not 11:01.
     
  20. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Damn that World of Trouble is a fast horse. Just crushed in that race at Belmont. Hopefully we get to see him face off against Promises Fulfilled again at some point. The battle those two had in the Woody Stephens was easily the best race I've seen so far this year regardless of age group, distance, surface, etc. I'd like to see it again.
     

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