The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Speaking of shit happening in the Derby;





I'm just going to go ahead and count that as a win because why not. Even if he had to go through the parking lot to earn it.
 
Sharkey said:
Speaking of shit happening in the Derby;





I'm just going to go ahead and count that as a win because why not. Even if he had to go through the parking lot to earn it.
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Seems like a lot of what happened in the race were outliers, unfortunately.
 
t6p said:
Seems like a lot of what happened in the race were outliers, unfortunately.
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That tends to happen every year in the Derby, T. Some horses get lucky with good trips and stay out of trouble. But most of them don't and as such lots of randomness takes place.
 
Now it's time to get back to the regular way of doing things now that the Derby is over and done with, and it looks like there's a good little opportunity coming up later today in race 8 at Parx (I'll be watching the board on the horses I have the ML listed for);

==========

#5 - (21.9%/14.3%) = 3.6/1 (12/1 ML) (should be the outside speed here, although needs to clear before they get off the turn as it lacks sustainability if pressured the last half of the race)
#4 - (19.0%/23.5%) = 4.3/1 (6/1 ML)
#8 - (17.3%/10.2%) = 4.8/1
#3 - (15.4%/13.6%) = 5.5/1 (3/1 ML)
#6 - (7.7%/12.1%) = 11.9/1 (30/1 ML)
#7 - (7.7%/7.8%) = 11.9/1
#1 - (5.7%/11.5%) = 16.6/1 (4/1 ML)
#1A - (4.1%/6.7%) = 23.5/1
#2 - (1.2%/0.4%) = 81.1/1 *2/1 ML favourite* (coming in off a year layoff)


#4, #5 / #1, #4, #6 and possibly the #3 if the right price and value can be created around it

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Pace Balance;

#5 EP - 80.1, LP - 57.5, SP - 76.6, TT - 51.3, MP - 75.7, EL - 71.7, DP - 78.9, ELD - 70.0, SF - 79.4, BT - 92.2, AC - 132.4, PP - 160.6, NF - 43.5
#4 EP - 76.2, LP - 60.3, SP - 76.4, TT - 53.4, MP - 76.1, EL - 70.9, DP - 76.8, ELD - 77.4, SF - 79.9, BT - 95.7, AC - 123.4, PP - 154.5, NF - 41.6
#8 EP - 78.6, LP - 55.9, SP - 74.9, TT - 51.7, MP - 74.1, EL - 70.0, DP - 77.3, ELD - 69.5, SF - 83.7, BT - 95.3, AC - 129.0, PP - 157.4, NF - 40.3
#3 EP - 76.3, LP - 57.5, SP - 74.7, TT - 53.0, MP - 74.3, EL - 69.4, DP - 76.0, ELD - 73.7, SF - 80.5, BT - 94.6, AC - 120.7, PP - 153.8, NF - 46.1
#6 EP - 73.0, LP - 59.5, SP - 74.3, TT - 56.2, MP - 74.9, EL - 68.2, DP - 74.2, ELD - 78.3, SF - 77.8, BT - 94.5, AC - 109.9, PP - 148.7, NF - 23.4
#7 EP - 73.4, LP - 55.9, SP - 72.3, TT - 53.0, MP - 71.9, EL - 67.2, DP - 73.3, ELD - 74.8, SF - 77.4, BT - 92.7, AC - 107.0, PP - 148.2, NF - 45.4
#1 EP - 68.6, LP - 61.0, SP - 73.0, TT - 53.9, MP - 72.9, EL - 67.6, DP - 71.3, ELD - 72.0, SF - 78.0, BT - 92.0, AC - 91.9, PP - 141.3, NF - 52.3
#1A EP - 69.5, LP - 57.6, SP - 71.3, TT - 52.4, MP - 70.8, EL - 66.4, DP - 70.9, ELD - 77.2, SF - 73.1, BT - 90.4, AC - 91.2, PP - 141.8, NF - 44.7
#2 EP - 79.3, LP - 48.1, SP - 70.3, TT - 50.1, MP - 69.2, EL - 66.1, DP - 75.3, ELD - 59.1, SF - 63.3, BT - 74.9, AC - 104.9, PP - 156.1, NF - -5.0

-----

Counter Energy;

#4 EP - 76.2, LP - 60.3, SP - 76.4, TT - 53.4, MP - 76.1, EL - 70.9, DP - 76.0, ELD - 77.4, SF - 79.9, BT - 97.9, AC - 123.8, PP - 153.6, NF - 41.6
#5 EP - 80.1, LP - 57.5, SP - 76.6, TT - 51.3, MP - 75.7, EL - 71.7, DP - 74.4, ELD - 70.0, SF - 79.4, BT - 91.3, AC - 112.7, PP - 151.6, NF - 43.5
#3 EP - 76.3, LP - 57.5, SP - 74.7, TT - 53.0, MP - 74.3, EL - 69.4, DP - 73.4, ELD - 73.7, SF - 80.5, BT - 94.9, AC - 111.3, PP - 149.1, NF - 46.1
#6 EP - 73.0, LP - 59.5, SP - 74.3, TT - 56.2, MP - 74.9, EL - 68.2, DP - 74.5, ELD - 78.3, SF - 77.8, BT - 97.8, AC - 118.0, PP - 150.9, NF - 23.4
#1 EP - 68.6, LP - 61.0, SP - 73.0, TT - 53.9, MP - 72.9, EL - 67.6, DP - 74.7, ELD - 72.0, SF - 78.0, BT - 92.5, AC - 108.7, PP - 149.1, NF - 52.3
#8 EP - 78.6, LP - 55.9, SP - 74.9, TT - 51.7, MP - 74.1, EL - 70.0, DP - 72.5, ELD - 69.5, SF - 83.7, BT - 92.5, AC - 106.6, PP - 148.1, NF - 40.3
#7 EP - 73.4, LP - 55.9, SP - 72.3, TT - 53.0, MP - 71.9, EL - 67.2, DP - 71.2, ELD - 74.8, SF - 77.4, BT - 94.6, AC - 101.4, PP - 144.6, NF - 45.4
#1A EP - 69.5, LP - 57.6, SP - 71.3, TT - 52.4, MP - 70.8, EL - 66.4, DP - 71.8, ELD - 77.2, SF - 73.1, BT - 95.0, AC - 100.7, PP - 144.0, NF - 44.7
#2 EP - 79.3, LP - 48.1, SP - 70.3, TT - 50.1, MP - 69.2, EL - 66.1, DP - 65.3, ELD - 59.1, SF - 63.3, BT - 75.6, AC - 63.3, PP - 135.9, NF - -5.0

==========

The #6 is the even energy horse this race, and with some other counter energy qualities to him. May be the longest shot in the race come post time as well.
 
- #5 to win ($16)
- #4, #5 / #1, #4, #5, #6 / #1, #4, #5, #6 in exactas ($2) and tris ($1)

Don't want to get too cute at these prices by leaving the #5 out of the place spot.
 
$40 risked. $163.30 returned. Not bad.
 
Sharkey said:
#2 - (1.2%/0.4%) = 81.1/1 *2/1 ML favourite* (coming in off a year layoff)
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I had this guy finishing last and that is indeed where he finished. Didn't take the money his morning line odds suggested he would, though, with the #3 being the heavy favourite in the end.
 
Sharkey said:
Care to handle the Preakness for us in a couple weeks @BluntTrauma21?

http://www.brisnet.com/edgeped/2019preakness.pdf
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Sure, why not. I'll be using a simplified, early version of the formula, tho and add together averages. If it's chalk I don't want any ballbusting, I'm trying my hardest over here. I can still barely walk so this isn't exactly my biggest priority atm, but I promise I'll try my best. That's all that I can promise.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Sure, why not. I'll be using a simplified, early version of the formula, tho and add together averages. If it's chalk I don't want any ballbusting, I'm trying my hardest over here. I can still barely walk so this isn't exactly my biggest priority atm, but I promise I'll try my best. That's all that I can promise.
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I'll be fine with whatever you use, bud, as long as you're not picking lucky numbers or something like that. Haha. We can go over some concepts as well if you want. I'd at least like to go over the conflict and counter energy concepts with you, but doing so just based on some observations and without the data I have. I'll keep as simple as I can for you, I promise.
 



And @t6p, how many UFC events is that in a row for you now? 5 or 6? That's awesome. Great job.
 
Sharkey said:



And @t6p, how many UFC events is that in a row for you now? 5 or 6? That's awesome. Great job.
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That's too bad about Country House. Might have been a good opportunity to fade him there.

Thanks bud. That's actually 5 winning events out of 6, I did have one small loss mixed in. But, I'm up a little over 21u over that stretch, which I'm pretty thrilled about.
 
t6p said:
That's too bad about Country House. Might have been a good opportunity to fade him there.

Thanks bud. That's actually 5 winning events out of 6, I did have one small loss mixed in. But, I'm up a little over 21u over that stretch, which I'm pretty thrilled about.
Click to expand...

Beautiful. Just keep doing what you have been doing, T.
 
Sharkey said:
- #5 to win ($16)
- #4, #5 / #1, #4, #5, #6 / #1, #4, #5, #6 in exactas ($2) and tris ($1)

Don't want to get too cute at these prices by leaving the #5 out of the place spot.
Click to expand...

was in louisville for the derby last weekend and find myself quite fascinated with the whole world of horse racing. curious if i'm reading this correctly - aside from the #5 to win, you made 6 exacta bets (#4 & #1, #4 & #5, #4 & #6, #5 & #1, #5 & #4, #5 & #6) and 12 trifecta bets with either #4 or #5 to win, #1/#4/#5/#6 to get second, and #1/#4/#5/#6 to get third?
 
RingsAndThings said:
was in louisville for the derby last weekend and find myself quite fascinated with the whole world of horse racing. curious if i'm reading this correctly - aside from the #5 to win, you made 6 exacta bets (#4 & #1, #4 & #5, #4 & #6, #5 & #1, #5 & #4, #5 & #6) and 12 trifecta bets with either #4 or #5 to win, #1/#4/#5/#6 to get second, and #1/#4/#5/#6 to get third?
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Yes, that's right, Rings. The use of the / is just for separating them positionally as you correctly figured out. I played two horses in 1st, four in 2nd, and four again in 3rd that race.
 
cool, thanks Sharkey. more questions if you have the time - what do all the numbers in post #1565 refer to and how did you generate them? i'm quite curious how handicappers such as yourself approach this sport and what resources you use to find an edge. (is there an edge? or is this just gambling after the usurious rake?)
 
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