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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    @t6p, @BluntTrauma21

    Looks like we have to get our picks in early at Remington, so we won't be able to watch the tote or anything. They're due 4 hours from now by the looks of it, so keep an eye out in this thread as I should have the races done within the next hour or so. Only have a few horses to do yet, but just waiting for this 5th at Belmont to finish.
     
  2. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Meh, the #7 missed the break out of the gate in the 5th at Belmont and had to be used up too much to get back into early position. Was still in contention til the very end, although had to settle for 3rd or 4th (photo) with a bunch of horses bunched up at the finish. I wished I had a do-over in that one with a better start
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    @t6p, @BluntTrauma21

    Added the horse's preferred running style in there as well to maybe help you envision how the race may play out. Best of luck gentlemen.

    Remington Park;

    ==========

    Race 6 (7:25);

    #5 Talk Gruff (S) ****** EP-81.8, SP-78.9, WF-81.4, PP-105.6, AVG-86.0
    #3 Brady Joe (E) ******* EP-78.4, SP-75.3, WF-74.9, PP-107.8, AVG-82.6
    #2 Cook (P) ************ EP-80.0, SP-74.3, WF-77.9, PP-109.3, AVG-82.4
    #6 Cupid's Star (E) **** EP-75.2, SP-75.8, WF-75.8, PP-104.3, AVG-81.8
    #7 K Street (E/P) ****** EP-71.4, SP-73.5, WF-74.1, PP-108.8, AVG-78.8
    #4 Kennedy Moon (P) **** EP-68.0, SP-70.8, WF-70.3, PP-104.5, AVG-74.4
    #8 Bluebird Ridge (P) ** EP-69.0, SP-72.0, WF-66.5, PP-99.1, AVG-73.6
    #1 J D's Waupaca (E) *** EP-70.6, SP-67.2, WF-64.4, PP-99.8, AVG-73.5

    ==========

    Race 7 (7:52);

    #3 Pemba (E) *************** EP-83.2, SP-81.6, WF-80.8, PP-119.0, AVG-90.5
    #4 Betty Jean (E/P) ******** EP-86.0, SP-82.9, WF-86.7, PP-113.0, AVG-89.1
    #6 Schuyler Warrior (E/P) ** EP-76.6, SP-79.0, WF-75.9, PP-110.7, AVG-84.0
    #5 Sheza Prize (E) ********* EP-79.4, SP-77.3, WF-79.5, PP-105.7, AVG-83.8
    #2 Malibu Maid (S) ********* EP-74.6, SP-76.5, WF-75.9, PP-102.3, AVG-81.7
    #1 Mix and Mingle (E/P) **** EP-74.6, SP-76.1, WF-73.6, PP-110.5, AVG-80.5
    #7 Flashflood Warning (E) ** EP-73.8, SP-73.2, WF-74.6, PP-100.4, AVG-78.8
    #8 Point At Z Baby (P) ***** EP-69.4, SP-70.9, WF-69.9, PP-106.6, AVG-76.4

    ==========

    Race 9 (8:45);

    #3 Ginge (E) *************** EP-87.6, SP-78.0, WF-84.4, PP-107.2, AVG-86.3
    #6 Gospel Cherokey (S) ***** EP-81.8, SP-79.2, WF-80.2, PP-107.1, AVG-85.6
    #1 Sergios Limoncello (P) ** EP-78.0, SP-75.7, WF-81.6, PP-107.5, AVG-82.5
    #7 Boss Hoss Ross (P) ****** EP-81.6, SP-76.2, WF-78.9, PP-105.3, AVG-82.2
    #9 More Than Money (E/P) *** EP-71.8, SP-72.6, WF-74.6, PP-107.2, AVG-80.6
    #4 Mr. White (E) *********** EP-86.0, SP-78.3, WF-82.4, PP-101.8, AVG-80.0
    #5 Masterplayer (E) ******** EP-88.2, SP-74.4, WF-80.3, PP-96.7, AVG-78.9
    #8 Tackson (E/P) *********** EP-76.2, SP-70.9, WF-76.5, PP-94.8, AVG-75.5
    #2 Time to Fight (E) ******* EP-86.4, SP-77.6, WF-79.4, PP-93.6, AVG-75.1

    - #9 has E2 & HLS pace patterns (may not be good enough regardless)

    ==========
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    After looking at the morning lines, which I hadn't seen yet, why do I get the feeling that all three of us will be playing the exact same horses?
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

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    Thanks for putting in all of that work and sharing it with us Shark. You are the man.

    Unless I'm missing something, it sure seems like Talk Gruff, Betty Jean and Ginge are the clear picks. What you say bud?
     
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I say nothing to my competition, T.

    And cheers.
     
  7. t6p Brown Belt

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    ;)
     
  8. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I will say this, though. Have a look at the running styles and early pace figures in that 9th race. Four E style runners who all have very similar early pace numbers to each other, and are all drawn right next to each other. Try to envision what may happen there, T. Which one(s), if any, will be sticking around at the end based on the other figures I posted. And which horses benefit the most if things do heat up on the front end with those four.
     
  9. t6p Brown Belt

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    Pretty sure I follow you Shark, but maybe we can revisit after the race is run.
     
  10. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    All four of these E types have early pace figures 8+ more than their sustained pace figures, T, so that should tell us how they have been using their energy in their recent races. All four are obviously slanted towards using their energy early. The #3 Ginge looks like he'll be the last of them standing since he has the SP numbers that are better than 2 of them and basically tied with the other, is in sharper condition based on his WF score, and with the other three coming in off layoffs, and with a higher PP rating accounting for class and the rest. But the question we have to ask is how much energy is he going to have late if things heat up early, and also factoring in the real possibility that he may be stuck between horses for much of the race being the #3 horse, and with #2 through #5 all potentially vying for the same space.

    Those other two races see front runners that haven't been expending nearly the amount of early energy as those in race 9 do. The E and E/P types in race 6 and 7 don't have EP numbers significantly higher than their SP figures (3 or so at the most), so that should tell us that those races are likely ran more conservative as far as the horses' energy levels go, and won't nearly be as hotly contested early as race 9 could be. I don't know about you, but the #3 Ginge looks like a high risk/high reward type of selection because that race could play out any old way for him. If you play him and he wins that's the type of price that could vault you to the top of the leaderboard.
     
  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This is one of the reasons why us having to get our picks in early kinda stinks. If we are safe after the first two races then we would be able to afford to take a chance in that last race.
     
  12. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Playing a small $4/$6 on the #3 Who's Got It coming up in race 9 at Woodbine. I almost forgot I did this race last night.
     
  13. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    #3, #5, #7 exacta box as well.
     
  14. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Game effort by the #3 there to get 2nd by about a length at 7/1. The #6 screwed my exacta as the #7 finished 3rd.
     
  15. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Not a bad place payout of almost 3/1 considering it was only a 7 horse field and the 2nd choice won.
     
  16. t6p Brown Belt

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    Got it bud. Thanks for explaining.
     
  17. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I don't want to pick horses for you, T, but of course I will help out when I can when it comes to reading the figures. Why I posted them like that is so it can potentially help show us how a race may be ran, who gets what trip, who benefits from pace, and whatever other possibilities exist as far as the race shape goes. Best of luck in what ever direction you go tonight.

    I'm also going to be betting these races tonight as well since I might as well tried to get paid something right now for these, although there's a chance my bets may not be on the same horses I pick in the contest.
     
  18. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Got a nice payout on Betty Jean with her winning at over 7/1 in race 7 at Remington. My guess is both @t6p and I played her in the contest as well.
     
  19. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Who does this @t6p guy think he is sitting there in 37th place overall out of over 2200 participants?

    Well done, my friend.
     
  20. t6p Brown Belt

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    Haha, holy shit. Just goes to show once again that I have the best guy teaching me.

    Where do you rank, Shark? I tried to search but I couldn't find you.
     

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