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- Sep 4, 2004
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May be a decent opportunity coming up later today at Monmouth at least as far as straight betting goes. But possibly in the exotics too with two potential keys (#6 and #8) if the #4 takes the money I suspect it will being a Chad Brown trained horse, and so many defaulting their bets to Chad on the turf.
I don't do place probabilities for turf races. And I'm really only interested in betting those I listed the ML odds for if exotics become an option. This is also assuming a firm turf course.
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Race 9 at Monmouth (8.5f Turf);
#6 EP - 79.2, LP - 63.9, SP - 80.2, TT - 52.4, MP - 79.6, EL - 74.8, DP - 80.2, ELD - 78.9, SF - 106.2, BT - 109.4, AC - 192.2, PP - 161.4, NF - 51.0 (31.8% = 2.1/1) *6/1 ML* (NPT, E2, LET)
#8 EP - 79.4, LP - 64.3, SP - 80.5, TT - 51.7, MP - 79.7, EL - 75.2, DP - 80.5, ELD - 78.8, SF - 90.9, BT - 103.4, AC - 186.0, PP - 161.8, NF - 50.5 (19.8% = 4.0/1) *7/2 ML*
#2 EP - 75.7, LP - 63.8, SP - 78.3, TT - 51.5, MP - 77.5, EL - 73.2, DP - 79.1, ELD - 75.7, SF - 90.8, BT - 100.6, AC - 175.1, PP - 158.1, NF - 49.4 (10.7% = 8.3/1) *8/1 ML*
#4 EP - 74.6, LP - 65.8, SP - 79.0, TT - 53.3, MP - 78.7, EL - 73.4, DP - 80.8, ELD - 72.1, SF - 82.7, BT - 94.4, AC - 176.7, PP - 161.1, NF - 52.1 (10.0% = 9.0/1)
#5 EP - 73.4, LP - 69.0, SP - 80.4, TT - 54.2, MP - 80.3, EL - 74.4, DP - 83.5, ELD - 66.8, SF - 80.7, BT - 89.0, AC - 181.0, PP - 165.4, NF - 42.0 (9.1% = 10.0/1) *6/1 ML*
#3 EP - 81.7, LP - 59.5, SP - 78.7, TT - 50.5, MP - 77.5, EL - 73.9, DP - 76.7, ELD - 70.9, SF - 93.9, BT - 97.8, AC - 166.1, PP - 155.7, NF - 47.4 (7.5% = 12.3/1)
#9 EP - 75.9, LP - 62.9, SP - 77.9, TT - 52.4, MP - 77.3, EL - 72.6, DP - 78.4, ELD - 76.9, SF - 82.1, BT - 98.3, AC - 171.9, PP - 157.3, NF - 36.7 (6.4% = 14.7/1)
#1 EP - 75.8, LP - 64.3, SP - 78.7, TT - 51.4, MP - 77.8, EL - 73.6, DP - 79.6, ELD - 75.2, SF - 76.0, BT - 94.5, AC - 170.4, PP - 159.0, NF - 29.0 (4.8% = 19.9/1)
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With only two horses having an above 12.5% random chance, one of those potentially offering up a lot of value, and with a potentially beatable favourite if the #4 takes the money I suspect he will (the #1 is 9/2 on ML, and #3 is 5/1 ML, so they could help value as well if they do take that kind of money), this is actually one of the easiest races to bet I've came across in a while as far as structuring goes.
If value can be created with the #8 then it looks like a 2x4 exacta, and then two keys in the trifecta. If the #8 gets overbet where value can't be created then it becomes a 1x2 and 2x1 exacta option, or possibly even just a simple 3 horse exacta box if not wanting to get too cute. I don't do place probabilities for turf races, but if I did using the same concepts as I do for dirt, the #5 would look quite strong in that department as opposed to it's win probability I have for it. Thus I'll be a little more forgiving of that one's odds compared to the 10/1 fair odds I have for it on the win end.
If I do bet this race, most of my investment will be in W/P'ing the #6 horse anyways if I do get a good price, which I should considering. Exotics are just extras.