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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    You would have had to have gone down a long way to find me, T, as I'm 335th right now. I took the #6 in that last race instead of the #3 like you did and it cost me. I'm not sure how that race played out since I got caught up in watching Woodley beating up on Till.

    At least we were finding the right longshots to play today if only one of us played them correctly. I did manage to have a fairly decent day betting the few races I did today using this method, though, so so far so good.
     
  2. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    High ranking, and it's against sharp company, not just random clowns. I'm impressed.
     
  3. t6p Brown Belt

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    Ah, that’s not bad though bud. You’re still within striking distance. I’m sure our rankings will be reversed before it’s all said and done. I didn’t get to watch any of the races either, I was focused on the UFC too. I’m mad at myself for letting other opinions scare me off a big Woodley bet. Those odds were silly.

    Glad to hear you had a profitable day too. Hopefully you’re on to something with this strategy.
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    He's going to be all modest about it, but I can only dream of having T's decision making ability. It's tremendous.
     
  5. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I wasn't keeping track of the odds or anything leading up to the fight, but I did a double take at the end of it when Rogan was talking to Woodley and mentioned that he was the underdog. That made no sense at all beyond saying that the hype on Till must have been insane. Wasn't Till lucky to get the decision against Thompson in his previous fight?
     
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Just playing one race today (so far anyways), but it looks like a good one;

    ==========

    Race 6 at Woodbine (12:53);

    #3 Nevaeh's Valentine 15/1 (E) *** EP-98.6, SP-86.8, WF-91.7, PP-121.4, AVG-98.3 (NPT, E2, LET)
    #5 Where's the Widget 9/2 (E/P) ** EP-91.8, SP-87.5, WF-87.3, PP-130.0, AVG-97.2
    #4 Eldritch 12/1 (E) ************* EP-88.0, SP-85.1, WF-86.5, PP-126.0, AVG-94.7
    #6 Hollywood Critic 8/1 (E/P) **** EP-85.6, SP-86.1, WF-89.4, PP-128.6, AVG-94.7
    #1 Lookin to Strike 5/2 (E/P) **** EP-91.8, SP-80.2, WF-85.8, PP-122.6, AVG-93.4
    #2 Freitag 7/2 (S) *************** EP-82.8, SP-91.8, WF-88.9, PP-131.9, AVG-91.6
    #7 Giant Storm 2/1 (P) *********** EP-74.4, SP-84.7, WF-80.5, PP-127.3, AVG-89.8

    ==========
     
  7. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I'm going to play this one a little heavier than all the little penny wagers I've been making lately as well since it looks like a great race to take a shot in.

    #3 to W/P for $15/$25 ($40)
    #3, #5 exacta box for $8 ($16)
    #3, #5 keyed in all three spots in trifectas with the #4 and #6 for $2 each ($24)
     
  8. t6p Brown Belt

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    I appreciate it Shark. Without your input I would never be in positions to make those decisions though bud.
     
  9. t6p Brown Belt

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    Yup. A lot of people, me included, scored that fight for Wonderboy. Last night was a great spot to make some good money on Woodley.
     
  10. t6p Brown Belt

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    I’m in but I can’t watch. GL!
     
  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I get the same horses when I do my form, class, speed equation for that Woodbine race as well. The only difference being that the #4 and #6 switch spots.

    #3 Nevaeh's Valentine 15/1 - 335.4
    #5 Where's the Widget 9/2 - 330.5
    #6 Hollywood Critic 8/1 - 328.6
    #4 Eldritch 12/1 - 323.2
    #1 Lookin to Strike 5/2 - 320.8
    #2 Freitag 7/2 - 315.4
    #7 Giant Storm 2/1 - 309.0

    Oh, I'm so going to crush this race.
     
  12. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    At least you made some money off him even though it wasn't as much as you were originally planning. People can provide good information some times, but a lot of the times it's just noise based on personal biases (we all have them) and things like that. But you know that already, T.
     
  13. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    That sucked.
     
  14. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Gonna try combining the form, class, speed ratings and pace/energy distribution ratings into one for this race just to see how it plays out;

    ==========

    Race 2 at Emerald Downs (2:26);

    #4 Pure Pursuit 3/1 (E) ******** EP-85.6, SP-77.0, WF-76.2, PP-104.6, FCS-205.4, TOTAL-548.8
    #6 That's Gold 9/2 (E) ********* EP-80.0, SP-75.0, WF-72.8, PP-100.9, FCS-206.8, TOTAL-535.5
    #7 Crystal Mtn Stormy 5/2 (E) ** EP-72.0, SP-71.1, WF-72.0, PP-100.7, FCS-201.4, TOTAL-517.2
    #1 Cle Elum Phil 7/2 (S) ******* EP-69.0, SP-76.2, WF-71.2, PP-96.3, FCS-190.7, TOTAL-503.4
    #3 Catchthewoodnapper 8/1 (E) ** EP-80.5, SP-72.0, WF-73.4, PP-99.4, FCS-171.8, TOTAL-497.1
    #5 Wings of Wisdom 15/1 (E/P) ** EP-69.0, SP-61.8, WF-58.7, PP-91.6, FCS-168.7, TOTAL-449.8
    #2 Dark Morning 5/1 (S) ******** EP-50.0, SP-65.5, WF-63.6, PP-94.7, FCS-154.4, TOTAL-428.2

    ==========
     
  15. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Gonna bet and forget some exactas at Parx today before I have to head out the door.

    ==========

    Race 1 at Parx (9:55);

    #5 My Rapid Lady 3/1 (E/P) *** EP-85.4, SP-81.2, WP-81.1, FCS-89.1, AVG-84.2
    #6 Black Queen 5/1 (E/P) ***** EP-80.6, SP-77.7, WP-79.7, FCS-89.7, AVG-81.9
    #4 Ghazi's Stone 5/2 (E) ***** EP-82.8, SP-76.9, WP-78.4, FCS-80.2, AVG-79.6
    #2 Navajo Kitten 3/2 (S) ***** EP-74.2, SP-77.7, WP-77.4, FCS-84.9, AVG-78.6
    #1A Sprawling 20/1 (E) ******* EP-79.8, SP-71.9, WP-72.0, FCS-73.4, AVG-74.3
    #1 Backyard Boogie 20/1 (P) ** EP-71.8, SP-70.0, WP-69.0, FCS-68.0, AVG-69.7
    #3 Hazy Daisy 20/1 (E) ******* EP-76.8, SP-63.3, WP-64.0, FCS-55.2, AVG-64.8

    ==========

    Race 4 at Parx (11:16);

    #7 Malandrina 7/5 (E) ************ EP-89.0, SP-82.0, WP-82.6, FCS-88.0, AVG-85.4
    #4 La Bella Pina 7/2 (E) ********* EP-91.6, SP-77.6, WP-80.0, FCS-71.2, AVG-80.1
    #1 Point Lockout 20/1 (S) ******** EP-78.2, SP-77.8, WP-76.9, FCS-80.2, AVG-78.3
    #8 B B's Busted 8/1 (P) ********** EP-79.2, SP-74.4, WP-73.8, FCS-85.5, AVG-78.2
    #6 Luv Her Baby Blues 5/2 (E/P) ** EP-80.8, SP-75.9, WP-77.3, FCS-72.6, AVG-76.7
    #3 Go Metro Girl 15/1 (E/P) ****** EP-74.8, SP-71.3, WP-74.1, FCS-81.6, AVG-75.5
    #5 Desirous 12/1 (P) ************* EP-86.8, SP-74.4, WP-72.7, FCS-63.5, AVG-74.4

    ==========

    Race 6 at Parx (12:10);

    #5 Mbrace Grace 2/1 (E) ******** EP-83.4, SP-84.7, WP-85.7, FCS-110.6, AVG-91.1
    #7 Midnight Harbor 10/1 (S) **** EP-78.4, SP-84.6, WP-86.1, FCS-107.1, AVG-89.1
    #8 Conquest Bigluck E 3/1 (E) ** EP-82.8, SP-83.1, WP-83.6, FCS-105.4, AVG-88.7
    #3 Cinco Y Cinco 8/1 (S) ******* EP-81.2, SP-83.3, WP-83.2, FCS-100.8, AVG-87.1
    #6 Clowney 6/1 (E/P) *********** EP-88.6, SP-78.8, WP-77.6, FCS-102.7, AVG-86.9
    #2 Seat of Honor 15/1 (P) ****** EP-82.8, SP-80.3, WP-80.1, FCS-98.8, AVG-85.5
    #4 Rydell 12/1 (P) ************* EP-76.8, SP-81.0, WP-76.4, FCS-95.0, AVG-82.3
    #1 Bud Fox 9/2 (E) ************* EP-87.0, SP-77.4, WP-73.3, FCS-90.9, AVG-82.2

    ==========

    Race 8 at Parx (1:04);

    #2 Leah's Dream 2/1 (E/P) ******* EP-97.8, SP-83.4, WP-89.4, FCS-108.6, AVG-94.8
    #3 Aggregator 6/1 (E/P) ********* EP-94.4, SP-84.8, WP-86.9, FCS-101.1, AVG-91.8
    #10 Blank Paige 4/1 (E/P) ******* EP-94.6, SP-84.2, WP-84.6, FCS-94.4, AVG-89.5
    #7 Shes One Mad Momma 12/1 (P) ** EP-88.6, SP-83.5, WP-85.3, FCS-99.5, AVG-89.2
    #4 Agora 8/1 (P) **************** EP-85.4, SP-81.6, WP-82.6, FCS-93.7, AVG-85.8
    #8 Stetson Gold 15/1 (E) ******** EP-92.6, SP-78.7, WP-78.5, FCS-81.0, AVG-82.7
    #6 Stroll Action 15/1 (E) ******* EP-85.4, SP-78.0, WP-80.4, FCS-84.0, AVG-82.0
    #1 Gangbusters 20/1 (E/P) ******* EP-80.4, SP-78.0, WP-80.0, FCS-87.3, AVG-81.4
    #9 Rapidez 30/1 (P) ************* EP-76.4, SP-78.8, WP-80.6, FCS-87.9, AVG-80.9

    ==========

    Race 9 at Parx (1:31);

    #3 Malibu At Midnight 5/2 (E) ***** EP-92.0, SP-82.2, WP-85.3, FCS-103.4, AVG-90.7
    #7 Rings of Jupiter 2/1 (S) ******* EP-75.0, SP-82.2, WP-81.9, FCS-104.8, AVG-86.0
    #8 Our Bruce Edwin 20/1 (E/P) ***** EP-86.2, SP-80.5, WP-81.2, FCS-90.2, AVG-84.5
    #5 In Equality 5/1 (E) ************ EP-79.0, SP-81.3, WP-79.3, FCS-97.1, AVG-84.2
    #1 Vocab 20/1 (E/P) *************** EP-72.2, SP-79.1, WP-76.4, FCS-94.6, AVG-80.6
    #6 Venezuelan Success 10/1 (E/P) ** EP-80.4, SP-75.4, WP-77.0, FCS-89.4, AVG-80.6
    #4 Snowfly 20/1 (S) *************** EP-65.2, SP-73.5, WP-69.7, FCS-84.0, AVG-73.1
    #2 Speightman 30/1 (S) ************ EP-42.2, SP-68.5, WP-61.4, FCS-79.4, AVG-62.9

    ==========
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
  16. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Race 1 - #5 over #4, #6

    Race 4 - #7 over #1, #8

    Race 6 - #5 over #3, #7

    Race 8 - #2 over #3. #7

    Race 9 - #3 over #5, #8
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    What track is Parx? Was thinking maybe I'd tail a couple of these but not sure if 5d has this track?
     
  18. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I think it's called Philadelphia something, Mike. I remember T used to have trouble playing that track because it wasn't listed as Parx on his site.

    Best of luck if you do play a couple.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Got it. Its Philadelphia Park. Tailing race 1. Will probably tail them all small today. Something to make the day more interesting and you put in all the work ha ha. BOL to us!
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Hey I did straight boxes (no key) on all these. Just saw I cashed that last one for a nice hit on the exacta. Sweet!
     

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