Agreed on the Cedeno fight. I think Cedeno has a poor gas tank, and I question his heart a little bit too. But he is in Florida so may fight harder than normal. Jason has a lot of reach and can fight 3 hard rounds, and he's hungry to get into the UFC. I only worry that with his striking, which is good, is that he closes the distance for his opponent rather than keeping his distance. This is Novelli's fight to lose since the blueprint to beat Cedeno is there - take him down or pressure him on the feet so he can't plant his feet and kick.I'm on Nobre -125... In the footage I could find Bice was pretty dominant on the ground against weak competition, but I doubt that will happen against Nobre. Especially since he seems to love advancing position, which will get Nobre chances to escape. I was pretty impressed with his striking vs. Elliot... it's very tough to face that type of striker when you aren't used to it (and there are no Brazilians of that style, so he probably wasn't), and he did a good job overall.
Also on Novelli... he'll hang in there in the striking and should be able to get him down. I'm hitting the over 2.5 in this one as well at -165. Yosdenis has only been subbed once two minutes into the third in his 3rd fight against Derek Campos. Tough to see any other finish other than a random head kick from Novelli or punch from Cedeno. I'm happy to fade those.
Carl vs. Muhummad is one of the toughest even odds fights of all time for me to call. Both aren't very good strikers, though Muhammad probably has a slight edge, and Belal has the more decision friendly style grappling-wise, but I think that edge is somewhat nullified by Carl's experience and camp. No idea.
However, I am on Bice @ +110. I really like his straight punches and his ability to switch stances, and he has solid wrestling if he needs it, but that's not the gameplan. Sid smartly said that Pedro is dangerous on the ground, so he's not going to play the game that teammate Nick Honstein played but nearly succeeded at.
Pedro had big problems with Elliott's punches and pace, and Bice brings all that. Even small jabs were rocking "The Rock" all over the place. I think the turnaround time is too short for Pedro as well, in that he took damage and really put his cardio through the paces just a month and a half ago. He missed weight. Sid trains at elevation and is motivated to punch his UFC ticket. Sid is a bit unproven, but the tools are there and the circumstances are right.
Unibet, WilliamHill, Marathon all have lines for this.Does anybody know any euro books that have lines up for this?
8pm ESTwhat time do the fights start?
I'm against the grain a bit here. I played Sherman at +150, the under in Carl/Belal, Rocha, Nobre, and Cedeno at + odds.
I think the turnaround time is too short for Pedro as well, in that he took damage and really put his cardio through the paces just a month and a half ago. He missed weight.
I don't know why people are betting Sherman? I have been very impressed with May in the UFC, he was beating Lewis until he got injured. He put Shawn Jordan in danger plenty times, Jordan had to work for the win. What exactly has Sherman done besides beat up on a few cans and lose to that guy who proposed to his wife at the weigh in?
Damm! no reduce juice from 5dimes!