Titan 38 - Belal vs Carl

Tailed all ez. Bol to us....wish it was tonight
 
I'm on Nobre -125... In the footage I could find Bice was pretty dominant on the ground against weak competition, but I doubt that will happen against Nobre. Especially since he seems to love advancing position, which will get Nobre chances to escape. I was pretty impressed with his striking vs. Elliot... it's very tough to face that type of striker when you aren't used to it (and there are no Brazilians of that style, so he probably wasn't), and he did a good job overall.

Also on Novelli... he'll hang in there in the striking and should be able to get him down. I'm hitting the over 2.5 in this one as well at -165. Yosdenis has only been subbed once two minutes into the third in his 3rd fight against Derek Campos. Tough to see any other finish other than a random head kick from Novelli or punch from Cedeno. I'm happy to fade those.

Carl vs. Muhummad is one of the toughest even odds fights of all time for me to call. Both aren't very good strikers, though Muhammad probably has a slight edge, and Belal has the more decision friendly style grappling-wise, but I think that edge is somewhat nullified by Carl's experience and camp. No idea.
 
Titan FC 38 Risk $584.67

Belal Muhammad (-110) vs Steve Carl $110.00 for $100.00
Belal Muhammad/Steve Carl Over 3½ (-165) $165.00 for $100.00
Jason Novelli (-125) vs Yosdenis Cedeno $125.00 for $100.00
Sid Bice (+110) vs Pedro Nobre $50.00 for $55.00
Chase Sherman (+150) vs Jack May $66.67 for $100.00
Caio Rocha/Peter Petties Over 1½ (-170) $68.00 for $40.00
 
I'm on Nobre -125... In the footage I could find Bice was pretty dominant on the ground against weak competition, but I doubt that will happen against Nobre. Especially since he seems to love advancing position, which will get Nobre chances to escape. I was pretty impressed with his striking vs. Elliot... it's very tough to face that type of striker when you aren't used to it (and there are no Brazilians of that style, so he probably wasn't), and he did a good job overall.

Also on Novelli... he'll hang in there in the striking and should be able to get him down. I'm hitting the over 2.5 in this one as well at -165. Yosdenis has only been subbed once two minutes into the third in his 3rd fight against Derek Campos. Tough to see any other finish other than a random head kick from Novelli or punch from Cedeno. I'm happy to fade those.

Carl vs. Muhummad is one of the toughest even odds fights of all time for me to call. Both aren't very good strikers, though Muhammad probably has a slight edge, and Belal has the more decision friendly style grappling-wise, but I think that edge is somewhat nullified by Carl's experience and camp. No idea.
Agreed on the Cedeno fight. I think Cedeno has a poor gas tank, and I question his heart a little bit too. But he is in Florida so may fight harder than normal. Jason has a lot of reach and can fight 3 hard rounds, and he's hungry to get into the UFC. I only worry that with his striking, which is good, is that he closes the distance for his opponent rather than keeping his distance. This is Novelli's fight to lose since the blueprint to beat Cedeno is there - take him down or pressure him on the feet so he can't plant his feet and kick.

Dead on about the Muhammed fight. I have no idea if he has the wrestling chops to fend off Carl, or the gas for 5 rounds. Carl is dangerous, but who knows which version of him shows up. Muhammad has better striking but not much power.

However, I am on Bice @ +110. I really like his straight punches and his ability to switch stances, and he has solid wrestling if he needs it, but that's not the gameplan. Sid smartly said that Pedro is dangerous on the ground, so he's not going to play the game that teammate Nick Honstein played but nearly succeeded at.

Pedro had big problems with Elliott's punches and pace, and Bice brings all that. Even small jabs were rocking "The Rock" all over the place. I think the turnaround time is too short for Pedro as well, in that he took damage and really put his cardio through the paces just a month and a half ago. He missed weight. Sid trains at elevation and is motivated to punch his UFC ticket. Sid is a bit unproven, but the tools are there and the circumstances are right.
 
Yeah, should have bought Muhammad... now that Carl is a decent dog I still don't want to play him. GL all, I'll be passing on that one most likely.
 
Tail on Novelli. I mean, Cedeno did lose to Cody Pfister, so whats the worst that could happen.

Also degen round robin Belal, o2.5 Nobre/Bice, o1.5 Rocha/Petties and Sherman
 
However, I am on Bice @ +110. I really like his straight punches and his ability to switch stances, and he has solid wrestling if he needs it, but that's not the gameplan. Sid smartly said that Pedro is dangerous on the ground, so he's not going to play the game that teammate Nick Honstein played but nearly succeeded at.

Pedro had big problems with Elliott's punches and pace, and Bice brings all that. Even small jabs were rocking "The Rock" all over the place. I think the turnaround time is too short for Pedro as well, in that he took damage and really put his cardio through the paces just a month and a half ago. He missed weight. Sid trains at elevation and is motivated to punch his UFC ticket. Sid is a bit unproven, but the tools are there and the circumstances are right.

The betting market agrees with you apparently. I'm regretting the Nobre play, especially after all that info I wasn't aware of.

...gotta let her ride, though.
 
Am I the only one excite about Petties vs Rocha? They both seems so invincible, someone '0' must go. Not sure who to bet on, anyone have a good read on this fight and why?
 
I'm against the grain a bit here. I played Sherman at +150, the under in Carl/Belal, Rocha, Nobre, and Cedeno at + odds.
 
well i know literally none of these fighters other than jack may.

listening to the breakdowns, this novelli kat sounds like a good bet - any thoughts?
 
I'm against the grain a bit here. I played Sherman at +150, the under in Carl/Belal, Rocha, Nobre, and Cedeno at + odds.

I don't know why people are betting Sherman? I have been very impressed with May in the UFC, he was beating Lewis until he got injured. He put Shawn Jordan in danger plenty times, Jordan had to work for the win. What exactly has Sherman done besides beat up on a few cans and lose to that guy who proposed to his wife at the weigh in?
 
I think the turnaround time is too short for Pedro as well, in that he took damage and really put his cardio through the paces just a month and a half ago. He missed weight.

Pedro had a baby recently and said that he wants to make money for his family because of bad economic times in Brazil. (I read this in a recent article) This explains the quick turnaround to fight because he needs the money, however, what I did not understand was why he missed weight by 3 pounds? He didint try to cut anymore, He knew they were going to take %30 off his purse and did. I thought he needed the money?

Hes either going to do everything in his power to win this fight and desperately wanted that 3 pound advantage, or he doesn't care about winning and was not properly prepared for this fight and just needs a payday.
 
I don't know why people are betting Sherman? I have been very impressed with May in the UFC, he was beating Lewis until he got injured. He put Shawn Jordan in danger plenty times, Jordan had to work for the win. What exactly has Sherman done besides beat up on a few cans and lose to that guy who proposed to his wife at the weigh in?

i wasn't impressed by may in the ufc, man.. he grappled when he shouldn't have.. he wilted when in trouble.. and he's 35 years old now, like 10 years older than the young, more explosive kid in sherman
 
Titan 38 Risk: 615
Muhammed +100: 200 for 200 / O3.5: 140 for 100 / Carl
Novelli -125: 125 for 100 / Cedeno
Bice +125: 50 for 62.50 / Nobre
petties-rocha
Sherman +150: 100 for 150 / May
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guess i'm set on this one. doesn't look like props are forthcoming.
 
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