TUF 23 finale - JJ vs gadelha II - Las Vegas

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I think Matthews was on his way to losing a split decision (according to the scorecards) to Case before he got the finish late in the third.
Would have been the most ridiculous robbery for Case to win that fight
 
Matthews looked really good in the Case fight once Case gassed BADLY.

It was pretty even for the first half of the fight.
 
how is matthews the favorite? i expected reverse odds on that one :)

lee's last two fights have not been impressive.. seems to have regressed a bit? matthews, on the other hand, is looking improved every fight (tho seems to be a slow starter)
 
Thoughts on Ferreira/Smith? Just briefly rewatched Smith/Guimaraes. Smith looked great in the first but gassed badly by the third and it probably should have been 10-8 Guimaraes making it a draw. I could see Ferreira having a similar performance as against Bamgbose, survive a tough first round and then take advantage of a tired opponent. The concerns are Ferreira's chin (Guimaraes seems to have a very good one) and how much of Smith gassing was due to him coming in on short notice.
 
Thoughts on Ferreira/Smith? Just briefly rewatched Smith/Guimaraes. Smith looked great in the first but gassed badly by the third and it probably should have been 10-8 Guimaraes making it a draw. I could see Ferreira having a similar performance as against Bamgbose, survive a tough first round and then take advantage of a tired opponent. The concerns are Ferreira's chin (Guimaraes seems to have a very good one) and how much of Smith gassing was due to him coming in on short notice.
I'll be on Smith by KO. That line will prob be at least +150 and its hard to pass on that when Smith has solid boxing and bricks for fists going against Mutante's notoriously porous defense and chin
 
Matthews has yet to face a wrestler correct? Lee very enticing at dog odds with Matthews relatively unknown tdd. Anyone able to lend insight here? I know case got him down once or twice.
 
If Lee times his TD and grapple, he can win this fight much easier. Problem is he doesnt seem to be mixing TDs lately. Hes much more of a striker now than a grappler.
 
Could this be attributed to the fact that he faced a wrestle-boxer and a jiu jitsu specialist his last two fights. Fights where he was expected to have the edge standing? This will be the first fight he wont be equal or better standing.
 
Everyone probably thinks I'm a fish, because I like posting my questionable big favorite plays. That said, I'm paying the juice to win 1u on Jingliang. Terrible matchup for Zafir, who seems to be some form of lay and prayer... the last thing he wants to face is a sprawl and brawler. Based on where he has trained (northeastern Australia) I question his level. Also, he lacks experience and sub skills, which is how Nakamura beat Jing (and that loss doesn't look so bad after Keita vs. Breese).
 
Everyone probably thinks I'm a fish, because I like posting my questionable big favorite plays. That said, I'm paying the juice to win 1u on Jingliang. Terrible matchup for Zafir, who seems to be some form of lay and prayer... the last thing he wants to face is a sprawl and brawler. Based on where he has trained (northeastern Australia) I question his level. Also, he lacks experience and sub skills, which is how Nakamura beat Jing (and that loss doesn't look so bad after Keita vs. Breese).

nope. i'm thinking about it, too.

just remember that zafir's first fight was on SUPER short notice
 
Thoughts on Moraga?

number 6 flyweight and recent title/no1 challenger facing Nicolau in his 2nd ufc match up......

Its just going to be a tough fight for this new kid on the block, but he has beaten mainly lower tier competition but a couple of guys with good records so a bit mixed. He has good submissions (black belt bjj) and prefers boxing and submissions style.

Last fight via YT shaky cam here:


Maybe worth a flyer on nicolau sub
 
Some of will brooks bellator HL and footage (last few fights)





Was not aware but he popped his knee in his last fight back in nov 2015 but still won the fight.
Good wrestling and decent ability to get reversals or back to his feet, nice kickboxing and boxing also,
all depends which pearson turns up here since brooks could out work him to a decision here just to secure his first ufc win.

These are in HD:

• Will Brooks vs. Michael Chandler 1 (May 2014): http://bellator.spike.com/fight/nr7xa1/bellator-120-will-brooks-vs-michael-chandler-i

• Will Brooks vs. Michael Chandler 2 (November 2014): http://bellator.spike.com/fight/4b0ehi/bellator-131-michael-chandler-vs-will-brooks

• Will Brooks vs. Dave Jansen (April 2015): http://bellator.spike.com/fight/z938ce/bellator-136-dave-jansen-vs-will-brooks

• Will Brooks vs. Marcin Held (November 2015): http://bellator.spike.com/fight/bozlxz/bellator-145-marcin-held-vs-will-brooks
 
Matthews looked really good in the Case fight once Case gassed BADLY.

It was pretty even for the first half of the fight.

The first two rounds were pretty even but Case gassed because of the body kicks that Matthews was catching him with,

As other's have mentioned, Lee has looked really bad as a -400 favorite in his last two fights. I think Matthews is deservedly the favorite here.
 
Both Matthews and Lee seems to developing at a steady pace but I like the way Matthews is going a bit more. While Lee seems to be mainly focusing on his boxing over at Mayweathers, Matthews is developing a more complete kickboxing game. I also favor Matthews chin over Lee. Matthews is way too explosive for Lees chin not to be tested in this fight and I have a feeling it will break.
 
As t6p said Case Matthews was very close until Case gassed due to body kicks. Agree what others said about Lee's chin being suspect hurt and stopped against the Brazilian and Efrain rocked him badly too. Lee has nice boxing but he is hittable and doesnt mix in kicks he also has zero power.

This fight boils down to Lee using his wrestling for me. He has to mix things up and get Matthews worried about the td. Matthews doesnt have the best striking i actually think Lee edges the striking but Matthews is far more likely to knock Lee out due to the power difference. Case got Matthews down once and was deep on his hips a few times. Based on this i think Lee can have success with his wrestling but the question is will he use his wrestling enough.

Too many question marks for me to pre bet this fight great lb fight. Will place a flyer on Lee dec tho.
 
Ross Pearson on Will Brooks: "He's a zero"

"All the expectations are on Will because all his questions remain unanswered. He's a zero right now, everything he's done in the past means nothing because he's not been in the UFC. The UFC is the main stage. I've won titles in other organizations before and no one ever talks about them. Why is that? Because it's not a big deal, it means nothing."

http://www.flocombat.com/article/43203-ross-pearson-to-will-brooks-you-re-a-zero
 
I like Pearson at +300.

It is Brooks first fight in the UFC and he could very well underperform. Also I dont think that he is THAT good. Chandler (twice) is a good win but he tends to block punches with his face. He may be the favorite but -400 is just off IMO. Ross is a seasoned veteran who has been fighting really good guys for a long time.

Also like Maynard at -133. Yes he has been losing a lot lately and is pretty shot but he is getting a serious step down in competition here.
 
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