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TUF 24 Finale - Mighty Mouse vs Elliot - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 21, 2016.

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  1. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Dont think its an error they have mm r5 by sub and mm r5 by ko @ +10000 but seem to have set a shitty limit
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Woke up thinking Elvis dec would be back in the +2xx but nope, still +400. So much value, I favor that as the most likely fight outcome for sure. Wish the fight was deeper in the night so I could go super hard if I was doing good.
     
  3. rille31 Brown Belt

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    mm r5 is 34.0 while fight ends r5 is 81.0

    If it hits and they take a beating Im pretty sure they will adjust that line saying it was an error
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Yeah looks dodgy but the limit was £5 they never set prop limits that low
     
  5. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Anthony Smith has been to a decision 3 times in 37 fights, not sure I see this as the most likely outcome, he goes out on his sword and Mutapcic has some power + smith gasses hard.
     
  6. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Idk probably same limit. Didn't put much on it.
     
  7. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Cannonier Dec +500 when Bovada finally released props, added .25u to that
     
  8. Turp11 White Belt

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    the under 4.5 in the Johnson fight is -135 now where as Johnson inside is -122. might as well take the under to get a possible Elliot finish as well. If Elliot survives 4.5 chances are its going the distance anyways. Im not even sure Elliot has the cardio to survive that long with Demetrious pushing the pace on him constantly.
     
  9. Turp11 White Belt

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    haha crazy I had a dream Demetrious finishes Elliot in the first
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Smith is pretty tough, Elvis doesn't hit very hard, and when Smith gasses Elvis will not push the pace on him. He's too much of a counter fighter. +400 is crazy value imo, possibly best line of the card
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Finally watched some tape on Stansbury and Clark. Man, Clark is horrible. He's jacked, that's about all he has going for him. All power shots, no combos, gassed vs Nicholson, and he's moving up in weight. Stansbury is by no means a bad fighter. He's actually pretty solid, and I think is a bad fight for Clark. His technical boxing is much better than Clarks. All over Stansbury
     
  12. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    I assumed you probably knew what I posted already, but wanted to throw it out there just in case...I agree there is value, just not sure if it makes it to a decision that Elvis will be the one winning it. Personally I think Elvis finishes or Smith probably takes a close decison with the 2nd round being the deciding one..
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'd be pretty surprised if Smith won any round but the first
     
  14. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Damn maybe i need to watch a few more of his fights, you thinking he gasses after the 1st even if he's the one dictating the pace?

    Seems Mutapcic was more of a finisher before he came to the UFC. My thought was he knows he's gone if he loses so he may come out more aggressive than past fights. That was pretty pathetic that he couldn't finish a completely gassed Casey though..
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I've never seen him know a pace that is anything but beast mode round 1, gassed and winging shots afterwards. Elvis is more technically proficient in literally every area imo and on top of that has a solid chin. If he can avoid the bomb in round 1, I really favor him to win in 2 and 3. My biggest concern, and a scary possibility, is he decides to do too much staring while Smith just stands there breathing.

    I'm hoping he comes out more aggressive, but hes pure counter striker. Hes not going to change that, just hoping hes more aware of winning rounds and creating opportunities himself rather than just waiting. That problem cost him the Casey fight, and could definitely make this fight much closer than it should be too.
     
  16. MMAJay Green Belt

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    Im all over Stansbury. 3u @ +100 and 0,5u on his DEC line

    I think there is crazy value. Clark coming in from Dana's show with some extra weight on his shoulders considering how his debut went. Clark is big... a big Middleweight that is. Even with all that muscle, he's still a smaller LHW. A weight where he's forced to fight this fight. You can add to the pool that Stansbury is a pretty big LHW. These are some of the arguments that persuaded me to go a bit bigger on Stansbury:

    • Mixing his game pretty well and utilizes a active jab to get inside - Throws a decent amount of inside legkicks that helps in the beginning to take the power from some of Clarks TD attempts
    • Both have good wrestling credentials, and at worse, they should cancel out each other there
    • Stansbury has a good chin
    • Clark, not so good a chin
    • Cardio is 50/50 IMO, perhaps even Stansbury in the later rounds
    • Stansbury has fought the bigger competition, and will have the power/strength advantage
    • UFC challenging Clark to see if he has any potential
    • From what I have seen from the fighters, Stansbury has a bigger will to FIGHT when he meets the better competition
     
  17. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    You can see the future dawg
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Agree with everything except the cardio. I think Stansbury pretty clearly has better cardio. Round 1 of the Hendricks fight was a pretty hard pace and he was fine for the next 2 rounds. Clark looked gassed by the time he was KOd at the end of rd1 vs Nich. I threw very small money on Stans in 2 and 3 incase same thing happens where Clark is throwing all those full power, 1 strike shots and it saps his energy. If Stans can defend tds that would help a lot too.
     
  19. MMAJay Green Belt

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    Lots of love for Moreno here. After watching some tape, I think there is some pretty good value in Moreno. I bet his SUB line though. These are both fighters that love to start out quickly. I guess you could play the under as well. Moreno has a very good guillotine, and Benoit has a very non technical double leg that the uses to often IMO considered how bad he's using them. He don't set it up very good, and this forces him to lean too much in with his head, giving Moreno more than enough time to grap the neck. Benoit has showed some pretty decent scrambling and sub defences before, but he's gassing pretty quickly everytime someone forces him to grapple/wrestle. It doesn't help him that he throws 90-100% power in every punch he throws. I really only see Benoit winning this if he ko's Moreno or in a very small chance can take him down and keep him down.

    Moreno has the better cardio/grappling and technical wit. The only thing im afraid of is that Moreno is willing to stand and trade when he doesn't have too. If he fights a smart fight here, I see him winning 7-8 out of 10 times, and the 3rd round, if he goes there, 10/10 times. He just have to pace himself and counter Benoit when he's overextending.

    Moreno is also coming in with his biggest momentum ever with that sub of Smolka. You can't say the same thing about Benoit, that IMO should be fighting for his job with the last couple of performances. I wouldn't take it into too much consideration, but there will always be the doubting thoughts in his head once the fight is going downhill from him, that doesn't makes him fight optimal.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
  20. Caicara Purple Belt

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    Yeah, I saw no love at all for the Stansbury Dec line. I got it at +650 and R3 +2000. Got a parlay with mutaptic dec and hall dec, great value.

    There was a guy somewhere here who said that Clark is much better, but I heavily disagree
     
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