TUF 24 Finale - Mighty Mouse vs Elliot - Vegas

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JimGunn said:
That's what I thought on the Melbourne card and it cost me about 2 units!
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I seriously think the event props are a losing proposition (literally a losing prop lol). There is so much variance and unknown in each fight how are we supposed to bet on the cumulative outcome of 13+ fights? The gambler in me wants to hit these up but nah man. This is truly pure gambling. What I do like is the really long odds ones for example "all fights go to decision".

Last event we had 10/13 decisions...
 
LEMONZEST said:
I seriously think the event props are a losing proposition (literally a losing prop lol). There is so much variance and unknown in each fight how are we supposed to bet on the cumulative outcome of 13+ fights? The gambler in me wants to hit these up but nah man. This is truly pure gambling. What I do like is the really long odds ones for example "all fights go to decision".

Last event we had 10/13 decisions...
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I have a good track record betting the over on decision props. Kind of ashamed of myself for not looking at them last event, cause with amount of "x wins by decision" plays I had i figure good chance I would've played them on that one.
 
Watched tape on jb and cejudo.

Cejudo = meh

Jb looked great in his last outing his stand up has improved. He goes to the body really well too. Not finished tape yet but im defo considering jb for fodder he might be safer than mas.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Watched tape on jb and cejudo.

Cejudo = meh

Jb looked great in his last outing his stand up has improved. He goes to the body really well too. Not finished tape yet but im defo considering jb for fodder he might be safer than mas.
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Cejudo sucks
 
If cejudo wins its via multiple take downs, the training video posted earlier showed some impressive solid take downs obviously due to his background, I just don't think he will want to strike with jb though probably set up his kicks and boxing with take downs instead.

If I was gonna hedge it would be henry decision
 
I wish it was Sunday this week, there's too much going on Saturday as it is. Also, I think some of you guys are underestimating Cejudo's boxing. Not saying it's better than JB, but I don't think the striking, or at least not the hands are that far apart.
 
I'm value betting on Cejudo. Better boxer and Wrassler at dog dogs? Count me in.


Fade me though as I'm horrible capping flyweights.
 
Tebowned said:
I'm value betting on Cejudo. Better boxer and Wrassler at dog dogs? Count me in.


Fade me though as I'm horrible capping flyweights.
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His boxing is not better. Even moreso now that Joe is with Ludwig. I think Joe pieces him up on the feet and is too good at scrambling to be held down. I'm really not impressed with Cejudo at all.
 
Brick Top said:
His boxing is not better. Even moreso now that Joe is with Ludwig. I think Joe pieces him up on the feet and is too good at scrambling to be held down. I'm really not impressed with Cejudo at all.
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On paper Cejudo has the better boxing footwork, boxing stance, cleaner headmovement, and punches.

joe B is an effective striker but his boxing his horrible.
Only DoM and Mighty Mouse have countered it so far but he swings from the hip.

Even 6 years ago his boxing looks cleaner than Joe Bs.

 
Tebowned said:
On paper Cejudo has the better boxing footwork, boxing stance, cleaner headmovement, and punches.

joe B is an effective striker but his boxing his horrible.
Only DoM and Mighty Mouse have countered it so far but he swings from the hip.

Even 6 years ago his boxing looks cleaner than Joe Bs.

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I've not watched tape yet but all I remember is thinking "wow Cejudo isn't even top 10" in the Camus fight.
 
Brick Top said:
I've not watched tape yet but all I remember is thinking "wow Cejudo isn't even top 10" in the Camus fight.
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Chico is top 15 material IMO. only lost to Gucci and Cejudo at flyweight.
He's gonna be signed back to the UFC if he keeps winning.

Cejudo may not have a lot of power but his boxing is on point.
He pieced up Dustin Kimura with pure boxing iirc.
 
Tebowned said:
Chico is top 15 material IMO. only lost to Gucci and Cejudo at flyweight.
He's gonna be signed back to the UFC if he keeps winning.

Cejudo may not have a lot of power but his boxing is on point.
He pieced up Dustin Kimura with pure boxing iirc.
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LOL Dustin Kimura. Besides DJ, Cejudo hasn't faced any one with the striking ability of Joe B. Cejudo has good striking fundamentals but he's conventional and basic. Joe B is unconventional when it comes to striking and has a lot in common with Dillashaw. The more classically trained striker in Cejudo has never fought anyone with the style of Joe B. It could be very off putting to Cejudo who is still quite inexperienced in MMA.

There is no reason to believe that Cejudo will be the more effective striker on fight night. Joe B's striking is probably the strongest aspect of his game and he's relied on it a heavily over the last few years. Cejudo has been doing MMA for less than 4 years and he is outmatched in every aspect of the game besides wrestling. But has we've seen his wrestling hasn't seemed to transition that well into MMA. He'll need takedowns to win this fight but I don't think he can get them enough to win. Taking Joe B down is one thing but keeping him down is another. There is a gap in experience and skill here and I think it shows. Won't be surprised if Joe B finishes Cejudo either.
 
Lol at cejudo boxing being better than JB ...simply not true. to put things in perspective a bit jb only has 4 losses on his record 2 to MM and 2 to D Cruz.
JB has more experience by a good margin. IMO Cejudo is a wrestler trying to win in MMA. Cejudo def can LNP for a decision but i heavily favour JB. Wrestling is less effective at the lighter weiggt classes cuz these guys just pop up.
 
I'm going big on Joe B as long as he's -200 or over. Hoping for lines to randomly move all over the place like last week (might just play his decision line, though)
 
Bands said:
LOL Dustin Kimura. Besides DJ, Cejudo hasn't faced any one with the striking ability of Joe B. Cejudo has good striking fundamentals but he's conventional and basic. Joe B is unconventional when it comes to striking and has a lot in common with Dillashaw. The more classically trained striker in Cejudo has never fought anyone with the style of Joe B. It could be very off putting to Cejudo who is still quite inexperienced in MMA.

There is no reason to believe that Cejudo will be the more effective striker on fight night. Joe B's striking is probably the strongest aspect of his game and he's relied on it a heavily over the last few years. Cejudo has been doing MMA for less than 4 years and he is outmatched in every aspect of the game besides wrestling. But has we've seen his wrestling hasn't seemed to transition that well into MMA. He'll need takedowns to win this fight but I don't think he can get them enough to win. Taking Joe B down is one thing but keeping him down is another. There is a gap in experience and skill here and I think it shows. Won't be surprised if Joe B finishes Cejudo either.
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Sums it up to me. Cejudo will probably hit a few TD's. He won't be able to hold Joe B down long. Joe B better in scrambles and looks more fluid striking. Plus every time Cejudo shoots he has to be wary of that TAM guillotine.
 
mkess101 said:
Sums it up to me. Cejudo will probably hit a few TD's. He won't be able to hold Joe B down long. Joe B better in scrambles and looks more fluid striking. Plus every time Cejudo shoots he has to be wary of that TAM guillotine.
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Good point, Joe has a dank guillotine.
 
If W.Reis was 8:1 underdog against MM then TUF winner will be even bigger dog than Holly was against Ronda or Lansberg against Cyborg. I'd say maybe 15-20:1 dog. Rightfully so tbh, Tuf winners only chance is if something horrible happens with MM (leg break or smth)
 
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