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UFC 196 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 209NickDiaz, Mar 5, 2016.

  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Hell yes there's a chance. Probably one more win and he's in the handful of guys that would be up next for the shot. Nate already had name recognition and now he's elevated his stock a TON.

    RDA would be -400ish probably but you could still freeroll big time if you wanted.

    Great line.
     
  2. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    Honestly, my eyes told me the same thing. A couple people rebutted me and I really didn't have an answer. I realize he doesn't really have that style of kicking that Diaz has been prone to, but the way he kept talking he made me believe he could adjust or something. I think I bought into his hype as if he knew something I didn't know. Dude had such a strong self belief I couldn't bet against him. Makes me think he's kind of a jackass now in retrospect. And I usually like to look at things more objectively but his supreme confidence blocked that out for me.

    I used the same critical thinking for some of the other fights on this card when contrasting styles, but I completely devoided that train of thought when it came to Conor.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2016
  3. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    I did not think Miesha had much of a distance game but she kept out of range on almost all of Holly's combos. I didn't think her TD threat was going to freeze Holly like it did after the 2nd round. Holly kept retracting all of her punches there on out. Miesha had a good understanding of defensive striking in this fight, even though her offense is limited and she goes off toughness.

    I went pretty hard on Siyar as my biggest dog of the card, but I gave pretty much all of it back to my Conor/Holly parlay. I can't believe I played the biggest juiced fighters on the card and still lost. And I'm usually a dog hunter.. lol.
     
  4. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Watch out for Holly's lack of offense in future fights. She is not a finisher like people make her out to be. In a Rousey fight, you are either going to finish or be finished. That's a given. In her last six fights, she has two finishes. One was against Rousey which we already covered, and the other was a 5th round (!) finish against Juliana Werner. She's very sharp defensively, but she isn't very aggressive offensively. I'm glad all judges scored rd 2 10-8. I literally think Tate did more in the 2nd round than Holly did the entire fight.
     
  5. wack3d Silver Belt

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    haha respect to anik for following through with his 209 bet :D

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    lmao yeah. I saw that earlier. Did you see Miesha find that cop that got caught looking at her ass at teh weigh ins and made a short video of her looking at his ass? lol
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    didn't catch that, but did you hear her quote at the post fight presser?

    "i told brian.. it's red boxer-brief night!"

    pretty darn clever ;)
     
  8. wack3d Silver Belt

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    haha no i missed all that. thanks for the heads up was pretty hillarious :D
     
  9. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    lmao yeah. I heard that. Making a play on the "red panty night" lol. I wish I was Bryan for that one night haha
     
  10. barrygood1 Blue Belt

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    MKESS: I don't know if you're one of the few regulars who always criticize my plays because frankly I don't check nor care, but you should know better. You're certainly entitled to your opinion as is everyone who posts in the betting threads. What I do take issue to the fact is you saying Nate has a chance to become a LW champion when any half decent MMA capper knows he doesn't have a snowflakes chance in hell in winning a belt. For Pete's sake I have a better chance in fighting in the UFC if you want to talk probabilities. First off I commend Nate as he is a gritty fighter who's been in the game but he's not top3 or top 5 nor even top 10. He's a good fighter who will never win a belt and I'll stake my reputation on that fact!

    Three important things you must possess which Nate lacks in order to become a champion are athletecism, wrestling, takedown defense. These are the things which prevent him from being a top echelon fighter. His jiu jitsu is phenominal but what good is it if you don't have the wrestling to get the fighter to the ground. While Nate is one of the taller lightweights his lanky frame and poor athletic qualities make him susceptible to getting punished from smaller faster fighters. The number one :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: in Nate's armor so to speak is his atrocious takedown defence. Any half decent wrestler with jiu-jitsu i.e Dos Anjos would easily beat Nate. It's literally his kryptonite.

    Before anyone caps a fight I tell anyone and everyone who'll listen to my advice to remember the age old adage "STYLES MAKE FIGHTS". This is so important and this is the reason why many bettors lose money and don't capitalize on value. Its preposterous to think Nate's suddenly in the conversation for a superfight after squeeking out a win in a fight he should have lost in the 1st round via cut to the face. He capitalized on Mcgregors horrendous cardio and beat a defeated fighter who was struggling for oxygen come 2nd recond.

    Just my 2cents and I think a futures on Nate even at +7500 is square. The only thing I could remotely see happening with a 0.001% is Nate getting a gifted title fight on account of his win over Mcgregor and his opponent breaking a leg/arm, fluke flash KO/SUB or something bizarre happening. In other words slim to no chance Nate is getting a belt. It's basically a feel good story win but in the long run Nate will experience regression to the mean. I'm a huge Diaz Bro fan and it's not that I'm talking smack on Nate but it is what it is and when I'm capping fights to make money there's no sentimentality with me.

    - Barry
     
  11. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Light up an M80 and shove it down you're fucking throat :)
     
  12. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    I was big on Conor and no way in hell should the fight have been stopped due to a fucking cut.
     
  13. Ballsaque Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Caraway is deffo the beta in that relationship, but... Still so jello : (
     
  14. wack3d Silver Belt

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    Last edited: Mar 11, 2016
  15. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Lmao the UFC pushed the triathalon angle sooo hard.
     
  16. rille31 Brown Belt

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    dana says mcgoat will be fighting @ ufc 200, hpoing for edgar

     
  17. Ballsaque Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    He has fought like that in some of his earlier fights, like the Buchinger fight, though he's never been a leg kicker. All offense always centered on that left hand. Anyone thinking he'd change the style he's been using up til now in the UFC wasn't thinking clearly though. I do think he could probably beat Diaz that way, though. If he can stay off the ground in the later rounds.
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Oh Care Bare, you are something else.

    Nate doesn't have a "snowballs chance in hell" of becoming LW champ? Kinda like Cain vs. Werdum, Ronda vs Holly, and Conor vs Nate were "sure things"?

    At this point most of us think you're an odd type of troll, but I'll still humor you with a response here. See, the thing is Barr-o, Nate doesn't NEED to become world champ for this bet to make sense genius. All he needs to to is GET THE TITLE SHOT. And with his recent win over your Conor (and again I'll remind you of your sweet advice to everyone to use Conor in parlays and bet him because he can't lose--every night I include in my bedtime prayers that there aren't actually suckers following your advice btw) Nate has even more name recognition. So basically Nate could be one more win away from a title shot, or even possibly get the next shot it there was an injury or something. Here's a pretty realistic scenario for ya dumbass: Dana gives winner of Khabib/Ferg the shot. Nate rematches Cerrone maybe or takes another fight at LW and wins it. Winner of Ferg/Khabib gets hurt (and if it was to be Khabib odds are pretty good he would get hurt). Nate steps in again as the replacement. Let's say RDA is -450 vs Nate, or -500. Now you have Nate +6600 in this fight already. So what do you think you could do here Barry?

    I don't think you have a conscience if you are giving betting advice. You are like the intentional version of William H Macy's character the Cooler in that movie.
     
  19. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Seems every thread in the main section is about Conor. So, uhm... here is some more.

     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Some times it seems SO obvious Barry is a troll

    Then he writes an essay, like he did to you, and i'm really left wondering if hes just some extremely delusional bettor.

    I will honestly feel bad if its the latter, so I hope that essay to you wasn't serious
     

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