UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

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Jae Gibbz said:
The fight is not only Brazil, but in his hometown, tho. Any other place (country) I agree with you, but Hall isn't winning a closish decision in Curitiba
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I think it's a factor, sure. That said, I think it's actually MORE than priced into Hall's dec line. It's +390 for crying out loud LOL! Silva will stand and stare at guys and at least Hall throws some jabs when he's in his "wait and counter" mode. Do I think it's "likely" Hall wins a decision? No. Do I think the line at almost +400 has some value? Hell yes.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Hendricks, Woodley, Rory, probably even Lombard all have strong cases as better takedown artists. Gunnar, Magny, Laflare all had never faced anyone who has even close to the clinch takedowns and ground game of Maia. We know Brown can do well for himself there.

Also think the cardio could be a potential problem. Maia is older and has slowed in the past when made to work. Brown trains in Denver and has always had a high pace style. Gonna have my eye on Brown +3.5
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Maia has an advantage when working his td's over all those guys though. When he's clinched up and chaning levels or figuring out to get the fight to the mat he can get far more creative because if there's a scramble and he ends up on bottom, he's still Demian Maia. Those guys aren't. They can't afford to end up on their backs, he can.

A great example of what he's capable of is the Sonnen fight. It's older, but it's a brilliant throw from the clinch on a big MW who's an elite wrestler. Which ended up with Maia getting dominant position off the throw and subbing Chael (the sub on Chael less impressive than the takedown as Chael has been subbed plenty of course).
 
Vitor rd 1 is a good hedge for Jacare itd. To me it's the only way to play the fight. I think Vitor gets taken down and dominated like he did vs Weidman although I think Jacare will probably be even less inclined to stand with Vitor. But...Vitor is dangerous early so getting +650 was an awesome hedge (lower now a bit but still a worthwhile hedge imo).
 
I have such heavy leans on so many fights on this card. I am guessing this is going to be one of (if not THE) card I end up with the most action on in 2016.
 
mkess101 said:
I think it's a factor, sure. That said, I think it's actually MORE than priced into Hall's dec line. It's +390 for crying out loud LOL! Silva will stand and stare at guys and at least Hall throws some jabs when he's in his "wait and counter" mode. Do I think it's "likely" Hall wins a decision? No. Do I think the line at almost +400 has some value? Hell yes.
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Agree to disagree, I guess. I don't think anyone is in full agreement with anyone else on this fight
 
mkess101 said:
Maia has an advantage when working his td's over all those guys though. When he's clinched up and chaning levels or figuring out to get the fight to the mat he can get far more creative because if there's a scramble and he ends up on bottom, he's still Demian Maia. Those guys aren't. They can't afford to end up on their backs, he can.

A great example of what he's capable of is the Sonnen fight. It's older, but it's a brilliant throw from the clinch on a big MW who's an elite wrestler. Which ended up with Maia getting dominant position off the throw and subbing Chael (the sub on Chael less impressive than the takedown as Chael has been subbed plenty of course).
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True, I think Hendricks is the only guy you could argue having a bigger advantage working his tds just because his striking inside is great and he mixes it up with the tds so well. That fight vs Brown might've been his most on point performance ever. But Maia def doesn't have to worry about being on bottom. Don't get me wrong i'm liking Maia to win and more and more to bet as the line gets closer to -200, I just wouldn't be THAT surprised by an upset here. First round will be telling and Brown could be a good livebet if he makes Maia work hard and puts up a fight.
 
iGnP said:
Andy's skill seemed fine against an old, slow Bisping, who was also at a 3' reach disadvantage. How's that gonna hold up against a much faster Hall who has a longer reach than Anderson?

Jae I like your idea of NO SC but Andy is just as likely to throw away rounds due to inactivity as Hall is

edit: dont forget, Anderson is 41 years old and has a rapidly declining chin. Hall, as flukey as you wanna call it, finished iron chinned Moose not too long ago
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I actually think that was the best bisping there has ever been. He wouldve beaten hall. And it was a damned close fight
 
EzFlyer said:
I actually think that was the best bisping there has ever been. He wouldve beaten hall. And it was a damned close fight
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Agree Bisping looked really good. Hard to say if he'd have beaten Hall. I don't think it's a stretch at this point to say Hall has at least the stopping power of Andy. And Bisping was saved by the bell and was very close to being finished. Bisping may have outworked Hall for sure, but Hall easily could have stopped him at some point.

To me Hall is just sort of an enigma. Brilliant counters at times, huge stopping power, but seemingly disinterested sometimes. Also lacking in grappling (though surviving rd 1 against Mousasi was solid, he showed good sub defense I guess). Hall is the perfect guy to fade as a huge favorite in 3 round fights against anyone with a pulse since he gives rounds away too often due to inactivity. But he's a good guy to bet as a dog. Especially in a fight like this one where grappling really shouldn't come into play.
 
I cant even remember the last time i saw maia on bottom. That shit just dont happen!
 
mkess101 said:
I have such heavy leans on so many fights on this card. I am guessing this is going to be one of (if not THE) card I end up with the most action on in 2016.
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Agree this will be my biggest card ever betting wise.
 
I find trends to be very telling in MMA. Silva is: KTFO-Leg split in half-Cheating-Bispinged over his last 4, with his most recent win coming against Stephan Bonnar.... I can't bet on that guy, Anderson or not.

Hall KO and ML for me.
 
Brown is 3.75 still with boylesport for those that can get it, price down too 3.3/3.5 at most other places.
 
Fuckkk Kamaru off the card, replaced with a newcomer i've never heard of.

I could be way off, but because of the stylistic match up I thought Kamaru was only going to be a moderate fave? Maybe -130 to -150 opener? And I was going to hammer him.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Fuckkk Kamaru off the card, replaced with a newcomer i've never heard of.

I could be way off, but because of the stylistic match up I thought Kamaru was only going to be a moderate fave? Maybe -130 to -150 opener? And I was going to hammer him.
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i think he would've been steeper
 
How great is Werdum's TDD compared to Stipe's takedowns? Stipe needs to mix up take-down/striking against Werdum, just being a striker would be predictable for Werdum. Werdum is a rare fighter who does welcome a takedown due to his strong BJJ though, at the same time Stipe needs to mix up his game so he doesn't get picked apart by Werdum standing via Muay Thai.

I'm going with Stipe TKO in round 3/4, providing Stipe uses his boxing and wrestling to keep the fight standing, use TD's to suprise Werdum and try to confuse him througout the fight. If Werdum tries to TD Stipe, I think he has the TDD to keep it standing.
 
RMMA said:
How great is Werdum's TDD compared to Stipe's takedowns? Stipe needs to mix up take-down/striking against Werdum, just being a striker would be predictable for Werdum. Werdum is a rare fighter who does welcome a takedown due to his strong BJJ though, at the same time Stipe needs to mix up his game so he doesn't get picked apart by Werdum standing via Muay Thai.

I'm going with Stipe TKO in round 3/4, providing Stipe uses his boxing and wrestling to keep the fight standing, use TD's to suprise Werdum and try to confuse him througout the fight. If Werdum tries to TD Stipe, I think he has the TDD to keep it standing.
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i'm not sure if anyone's ever intentionally gone into werdum's guard...
 
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