UFC 199 - Los Angeles - Rockhold vs Bisping - 6/4/16

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bobby is going to fight with his mouth. and unless he lands a shot on parkay. hes going to lose.
 
Paddy power is good for lb first four fights. No props offered but they are known to fuck lines up.
 
If you bet $1 to win $100 for an extra reason to watch, I forgive you. Faber ain't winnin sh*t.
 
rille31 said:
so I keep getting this message on 5d

"The price on this event is being evaluated. Check back momentarily for an updated price."

did they flag my account or something?
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are you only trying the same line? seems to be working fine for me..
 
man I'm really surprised so many are high on Dairush in the bets-thread.
ROBBED Johnson and lost to Chiesa, I've never been really impressed with that guy. Vick beat Matthews and Franca who are touted prospects.

I wouldn't bet Vick at current lines at +130 but the guys who got him at +185 made a fucking steal imo.
I wouldn't touch either right now
 
wack3d said:
are you only trying the same line? seems to be working fine for me..
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Different lines but not all of them, Im able to make a bet after a couple of min, until then I keep getting that message on some lines

This started recently
 
EzFlyer said:
yea, no live betting

that said, quality is great. you watch most on your tv etc? i always have the tv during tv fights but always end up finding a stream that's faster, anyway
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It's because I have an 8year-old computer/processor with only 3.5g of ram and a 5 year old video card lmao. Fight pass is the one site that gives me a bunch of problems. It uses up a lot of ram, IIRC. I can watch streamed videos on YouTube easily, for comparison

And yes guys, I've been meaning to upgrade for a WHILE, trust me. I'm just so frugal with stuff lol. I usually wait until I find an absolute killer deal or my object completely breaks, etc lol...
 
zomb said:
man I'm really surprised so many are high on Dairush in the bets-thread.
ROBBED Johnson and lost to Chiesa, I've never been really impressed with that guy. Vick beat Matthews and Franca who are touted prospects.

I wouldn't bet Vick at current lines at +130 but the guys who got him at +185 made a fucking steal imo.
I wouldn't touch either right now
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Darius striking is nothing impressive but his grappling is much better. If he mixes in td, he can win this fight alot easier. Question is can he keep up his cardio cuz Vick will keep coming for 3 rounds.
 
EzFlyer said:
wonder how much of the fighters looking good/stronger will be due to rehydration?

fight pass:

DHK-polo
DHK looks pretty darn good. way better than debut, way better at 155
polo looks strong, too, bulky 155'er.
think DHK might be an inch taller, both look good.

mutapcic-casey
mutapcic looks waaaay better back down to 185.
casey looks good, too. strong. better than some of his recent fights.
mutapcic is 2" taller

wilson-da silva
da silva looks pretty soft. looks like he could be 185.
wilson looks alright.
da silva maybe 1" taller

breese-strickland
breese absolutely gigantic 170, looks huge..
strickland shredded to the gills... same as usual at 170, looks awesome.
breese definitely 2+" taller

fs1:

caceres-miller
caceres a lil thicker up at 145. looks alright.
miller looks decent. he's looked a bit more toned before, but looks fine
miller 2-3" taller at least, hard to tell exactly w/that hair

penne-andrade
andrade down to 115.. and wow, honestly, she doesn't look THAT much different than she did at 135!? maybe rehydrated already? looks good...
penne looks decent enough.. tho maybe a little softer than her titlefight?
penne maybe 2+" taller

dariush-vick
vick looks decent, long and lean. same as usual
dariush a bit awkward as always, maybe a little softer than some fights? but doesn't look bad
vick 4" taller

ortega-guida
guida annoying as always. looks strong, tho. thicker than he used to but not soft.
ortega looks alright. never looks great
ortega 1-2" taller

ppv:

green-poirier
green looks outstanding despite the layoff (head tattoo not withstanding)
poirier looks great. same as usual at 155. both guys in great shape apparently
they're the same size

hendo-lombard
lombard swollen as fuuuuck. jesus christ. i swear that's the thickest he's ever looked at a weighin
hendo looks fine for a 45 year old. strong but meh.
hendo couple inches taller

holloway-lamas
lamas looks awesome, as always at 145.
holloway lean but looks as good as ever, too.
holloway 3" taller

faber-cruz
faber looks fantastic. think that's the best he's looked in the ufc?
cruz looks decent.. better than his return fight, maybe?
cruz is like 4" taller, but no surprise here, we know this.

bisping-rockhold
bisping looks decent. not as good as the anderson fight, but not terrible.
rockhold absolutely ludicrous 185. looks bigger than some hw's.
rockhold 2" taller i guess. (knew this)
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Lombard probably looks so swole because of 185 + 6 hours of rehydration.
 
god penne looks so much better now with that new nose.
 
Wow, Poirer NSC -129. On that. That should be like -200 min

And not that it matters, but it opened at -430
 
So going over fights thinking about how they could play out and I actually think Ortega by dec has a decent shot of hitting at +348. Seems like everyone thinks it's either Guida dec or Ortega sub. At first agreed but in looking at it some more I think Ortega could win a decision here. My thinking is that although Ortega has shown to be hittable, Guida's striking (while busy) is pretty average. That might be generous. Ortega will have a reach advantage and he's not afraid to mix it up and be aggressive (because he trusts his guard and doesn't worry about being taken down for obvious reasons). Clay uses his striking to set up takedowns, but he may well want to avoid the ground in this one and be content with a kickboxing match. Which he could win, yes, but he could also eat more clean shots or his crazy bouncing around style could not play well with the judges.

And if Clay does decide to take Ortega down there's a chance that Ortega ties Clay up and makes him defend subs the entire time but doesn't finish. And depending on the judges view that could give Ortega the nod.

Bottom line: I don't think it's the MOST likely scenario that Ortega wins a decision here, but I think there's nice value at +348. I'd cap it more like +250 probably.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Wow, Poirer NSC -129. On that. That should be like -200 min

And not that it matters, but it opened at -430
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I had to take it at -155 but still love it. Great call.

Also parlayed it with Dom -5.5 and Lombard itd at about +250.
 
mkess101 said:
So going over fights thinking about how they could play out and I actually think Ortega by dec has a decent shot of hitting at +348. Seems like everyone thinks it's either Guida dec or Ortega sub. At first agreed but in looking at it some more I think Ortega could win a decision here. My thinking is that although Ortega has shown to be hittable, Guida's striking (while busy) is pretty average. That might be generous. Ortega will have a reach advantage and he's not afraid to mix it up and be aggressive (because he trusts his guard and doesn't worry about being taken down for obvious reasons). Clay uses his striking to set up takedowns, but he may well want to avoid the ground in this one and be content with a kickboxing match. Which he could win, yes, but he could also eat more clean shots or his crazy bouncing around style could not play well with the judges.

And if Clay does decide to take Ortega down there's a chance that Ortega ties Clay up and makes him defend subs the entire time but doesn't finish. And depending on the judges view that could give Ortega the nod.

Bottom line: I don't think it's the MOST likely scenario that Ortega wins a decision here, but I think there's nice value at +348. I'd cap it more like +250 probably.
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I'm actually with you in the sense that Ortega CAN win by DEC. SUB is not his only shot. With that said, I don't like +348. I'd prob need +500 or so. I do think it's super risky to play both Clay DEC and Ortega SUB, tho.
 
zomb said:
man I'm really surprised so many are high on Dairush in the bets-thread.
ROBBED Johnson and lost to Chiesa, I've never been really impressed with that guy. Vick beat Matthews and Franca who are touted prospects.

I wouldn't bet Vick at current lines at +130 but the guys who got him at +185 made a fucking steal imo.
I wouldn't touch either right now
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Matthews was winning until he left his neck out and franca gassed bad not to mention the eye poke affected him. Dariush was chewing chisea up until he brain farted. Vick is long and gangly franca showed he is there to be kicked to shreds. He also has shit tdd and dariush has good takedowns with easily the best ground game vick has come up against.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Matthews was winning until he left his neck out and franca gassed bad not to mention the eye poke affected him. Dariush was chewing chisea up until he brain farted. Vick is long and gangly franca showed he is there to be kicked to shreds. He also has shit tdd and dariush has good takedowns with easily the best ground game vick has come up against.
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My thoughts exactly. Vick is decent on the ground, right? I have a Dariush by dec play but I'm worried that he might get a sub
 
Sham5916910 said:
Matthews was winning until he left his neck out and franca gassed bad not to mention the eye poke affected him. Dariush was chewing chisea up until he brain farted. Vick is long and gangly franca showed he is there to be kicked to shreds. He also has shit tdd and dariush has good takedowns with easily the best ground game vick has come up against.
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100% this. Dariush showed a lot of improvements in his kickboxing vs Chiesa and we have seen his wrestling game on display before which is solid.
 
Dariush down to -150 makes him bettable now IMO
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Wow, Poirer NSC -129. On that. That should be like -200 min

And not that it matters, but it opened at -430
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What does NSC stand for? I know what it means, but whats the acronym? No scorecards _____?
 
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