UFC 199 - Los Angeles - Rockhold vs Bisping - 6/4/16

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How do you see him winning? Betting ML or dec, or are you brave enought to think he can stop Rockhold?

i don't play props, just putting a large bet on his generous moneyline at +700.

Going large? I like it ML but max is somewhere like 2.5 units and I'd try a little hedge with something like an over 1.5 with 2.5 units too.

yeah i had to place my bet on a couple of different accounts. i got a large amount on at 7/1 on the betfair exchange but the price has got worse.
 
if i could afford to tie my money up for longer, i would hammer cruz, dillashaw and jones at + odds.
 
yeah i have a very square-sounding parlay that i think definitely hits. that should ensure i still break even even if my bisping bet loses (but i am confident it wins). will reveal after the lines go up.
 
Kim (not stun gun but the other one) A well rounded fighter, athletic and good volume striker, likes to keep out of range and throw leg kicks to opponents and work dirty boxing during clinches sporting a 6kos, 5subs across an 13-7 record.

Here is his last ko loss fight against steele with that lovely slam ko


full fight on fp here:
http://www.ufc.tv/video/henderson-vs-masvidal-fight-pass-prelims


Another one here:
http://tvpot.daum.net/clip/ClipView.do?clipid=67072500&rtes=y&startDuration=403.07099999999997

Marco polo
former latin tuf competitior, a striker style fighter but has shown he can also wrestle and secure take downs with decent gnp. 5-2 record (mainly low tier fighters with more Ls then Ws) he has shown heart and an chin in his past fights and willing to get his own powerful strikes in.


Shaky cam of his last ufc fight and win via ko


few other YT fights




I think this fight should start the event off well, kim throws volume and has decent cardio and has that judo background, while marco really does go all out and happy to eat punches to trade his own here, I could see marco trying to get his gnp going or heavier power strikes to do more damage, give the edge to marco here but barely.



Just a reminder, Maestro Kim took that Steele fight on 8 day notice and fought up a weight class. Remember cause I had Steele on my Draftsking line up expecting a finish.
 
Hardy said - Bisping did an interview and said because he hasn't been training he won't have the 5 round cardio.

 
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Says he lost because of the weight cut, felt dizzy, couldn't move in the second round, was miserable, couldn't have a healthy breakfast, 185 is my weight, won't cut to 170 anymore, took months to get ready

 
I am putting a bit on Bisping as well

Rockhold is the clear favourite but -1100 ML is off. I will be on Bisping ML. I will wait till right before the fight to try and get a good price on Magic Mike....well I am hoping he pulls out some magic....
 
Lines HAVE to drop today. My only question is will we get the full whammy of props too? Normally for Saturday events this is the day we get those lines
 
Brian ortega, had to remind myself of this 25 year old kid, gracie jj black belt works as a gym trainer also his last 3 fights here:

http://www.ufc.tv/video/brian-ortega-vs-diego-brandao-ufc-195
http://www.ufc.tv/video/number-four-brian-ortega-vs-thiago-tavares-ufc-fight-night
http://www.ufc.tv/video/brian-ortega-vs-mike-de-la-torre-ufc-fight-night

No need to discuss clay guida too much here but his last fight he did what clay usually does set up his basic boxing to work his way into a take down with top control looking for subs or control which did not work well against tavares since he choked him on clays first take down attempt, I guess everyone will look at it one way in ortega subbed tavares and tavares subbed clay.

Either ortega uses his long jab and kicks to outstrike clay or he actively works a sub off his back during clays take downs, I expect ortega to scramble or look to actively lock a guillotine on clay, ortega sub but I like clays decision prop small also.
 
Just a reminder, Maestro Kim took that Steele fight on 8 day notice and fought up a weight class. Remember cause I had Steele on my Draftsking line up expecting a finish.

good point, kims an interesting fighter I could still see him edging a decision with his volume but do reckon the judges may like marcos style and power strikes more. Oh and welcome to the board !
 
Max Holloway starts at: 24:49

Max says his wrestling will make the difference, he won't out wrestle me, Lamas doesn't wrestle anybody, he striked with Aldo the whole fight, says his thumb is 100%, I still think I can squeeze out 3 fights this year, it's been a great training camp, can't wait to fight

 
Cruz NOT itd -307

Faber NSC +311

everyone seems pretty confident on cruz by dec, not cruz itd. I disagree. I think Faber has slowly been regressing over past few yrs. I love watching him but hes not the same fighter he was in WEC or even 3-4 yrs ago imo. It wouldnt surprise me at all to see a cruz finish, although Cruz minus the points is probably the bet to make
 
everyone seems pretty confident on cruz by dec, not cruz itd. I disagree. I think Faber has slowly been regressing over past few yrs. I love watching him but hes not the same fighter he was in WEC or even 3-4 yrs ago imo. It wouldnt surprise me at all to see a cruz finish, although Cruz minus the points is probably the bet to make
How do you see him finishing? Cruz doesn't sit down on his punches and Faber has never been subbed.
 
Some early thoughts on dariush/Vick

Darius is taking this fight I believe on short notice maybe 1 or 2 weeks, he has been busy on twitter with a gym being opened few days ago, but has been active and busy training it appears, but in terms of a full camp doubt it. I still regard him high with his MT and bjj black belt, excellent leg kicks and nicely timed counters and his bjj is excellent.

Vick is tall (6.3")a well rounded fighter, likes to go for subs off his back and during scrambles and looks to keep opponents at distance so he can pepper them with his long jab, wiki says he is a 2 time golden gloves (boxing) champ. Vick is also an undefeated prospect with an 9-0 record.

I think darius needs to fight smart here, he was looking for a finish against chiesa in his last fight and it cost him with cardio in r2, he was also grappling with chiesa who was able to hold his own due to his size and cardio yet still went into grappling mode, vick is also similar good cardio and heart and uses his height, long jab and high volume well, he could perhaps outpoint dariush here to a decision but I can't blame people for playing dariush he is technically the much better fighter coming in its just his short notice I like the underdog in vick here.

vick decision maybe worth a stab, even r2,r3 finishes otherwise dariush decision, great fight for live betting also.

Both guys last fights here:

http://www.ufc.tv/video/michael-chiesa-vs-beneil-dariush-ufc-fight-night
http://www.ufc.tv/video/james-vick-vs-glaico-franca-ufc-197
 
Brian ortega, had to remind myself of this 25 year old kid, gracie jj black belt works as a gym trainer also his last 3 fights here:

http://www.ufc.tv/video/brian-ortega-vs-diego-brandao-ufc-195
http://www.ufc.tv/video/number-four-brian-ortega-vs-thiago-tavares-ufc-fight-night
http://www.ufc.tv/video/brian-ortega-vs-mike-de-la-torre-ufc-fight-night

No need to discuss clay guida too much here but his last fight he did what clay usually does set up his basic boxing to work his way into a take down with top control looking for subs or control which did not work well against tavares since he choked him on clays first take down attempt, I guess everyone will look at it one way in ortega subbed tavares and tavares subbed clay.

Either ortega uses his long jab and kicks to outstrike clay or he actively works a sub off his back during clays take downs, I expect ortega to scramble or look to actively lock a guillotine on clay, ortega sub but I like clays decision prop small also.

Ortega aka T CITY is a strict BJJ guy under the Gracie camp. Ortega's gameplan is strictly to win by sub. Ortega has pretty weak striking and doesn't really take boxing seriously IMO. Ortega's gameplan v Brandao was to tire him out over 2 rounds and then sub in the 3rd. I think this is a pretty consistent gameplan for him to move around a bit let the other guy get tired and then sub.

The big question in this fight is whether or not Guida is savvy enough to avoid the Ortega sub. I really like Ortega and kinda have my eye on him as a prospect but he will never really breakout as he relies so heavily on subs only.

My official prediction for this fight is Guida by decision as I think he can outwork Ortega. Becuase Ortega strictly is thinking about getting a sub he often ends up behind on the cards. If Ortega doesn't get the sub finish then I think he will lose as Guida will be busier.
 
Ortega aka T CITY is a strict BJJ guy under the Gracie camp. Ortega's gameplan is strictly to win by sub. Ortega has pretty weak striking and doesn't really take boxing seriously IMO. Ortega's gameplan v Brandao was to tire him out over 2 rounds and then sub in the 3rd. I think this is a pretty consistent gameplan for him to move around a bit let the other guy get tired and then sub.

The big question in this fight is whether or not Guida is savvy enough to avoid the Ortega sub. I really like Ortega and kinda have my eye on him as a prospect but he will never really breakout as he relies so heavily on subs only.

My official prediction for this fight is Guida by decision as I think he can outwork Ortega. Becuase Ortega strictly is thinking about getting a sub he often ends up behind on the cards. If Ortega doesn't get the sub finish then I think he will lose as Guida will be busier.

yup agree was liking the idea of clay decision he has the cardio and pace to do it and ortega does rely on that sub bit too much, its clays 8 sub losses that gives me some concerns about going to heavy on clay decision so maybe a small stab or ill add clay decision in some wacky parlay.
 
yup agree was liking the idea of clay decision he has the cardio and pace to do it and ortega does rely on that sub bit too much, its clays 8 sub losses that gives me some concerns about going to heavy on clay decision so maybe a small stab or ill add clay decision in some wacky parlay.

I also don't mind a play on Ortega sub too. I might just play Ortega sub and count on him getting it done. We have to see what the prices look like.

I didn't realize Guida had that many sub losses. I kind of assumed he was a savvy vet with good sub defense.... himmmm.
 
Breese vs strickland is an interesting fight, both massive tall 6 foot +, 170 pounder prospects, breese did have a bit of a lackluster fight in his last outing but still controlled and out worked the more smaller and tough kieta in all areas. Strickland has also good cardio and an excellent well rounded game too, maybe I would give him an cardio advantage but he also keeps that head up high and does not keep his hands high enough. I think we see breese tagging him with more powerful jabs, think the overs hit here especially after breese last performance and both guys never been stopped before but won't be surprised if breese gets a ko too, great fight to live bet also.
 
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