UFC 200 - DC vs JJ 2 - Vegas

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I am trying to figure out why you guys are trying to find a side for Diego/Lauzon. I think the line is probably about right or in the ballpark. The line that is off is the o2.5 or even better imo that fight goes distance.

This sees the cards probably 75% of the time imo and fight goes distance is -180. No reason for me to try to look for value in either guy when I can bet this and be counting $ while Buffer reads the cards instead of sweating out if my guy won.
 
I am trying to figure out why you guys are trying to find a side for Diego/Lauzon. I think the line is probably about right or in the ballpark. The line that is off is the o2.5 or even better imo that fight goes distance.

This sees the cards probably 75% of the time imo and fight goes distance is -180. No reason for me to try to look for value in either guy when I can bet this and be counting $ while Buffer reads the cards instead of sweating out if my guy won.
Agree the o2.5 is the biggest line that is off by far, but i'm actually kind of surprised i'm in the minority favoring Lauzon, especially the +240 decision line. Thought with that value and pick em odds more people would like Lauzon in this spot. I guess I can see that Miller fight being a Diego confidence increase, but I really think it will be hard for Diego to control from top position for enough of the 15 mins to win this fight.
 
Agree the o2.5 is the biggest line that is off by far, but i'm actually kind of surprised i'm in the minority favoring Lauzon, especially the +240 decision line. Thought with that value and pick em odds more people would like Lauzon in this spot. I guess I can see that Miller fight being a Diego confidence increase, but I really think it will be hard for Diego to control from top position for enough of the 15 mins to win this fight.

Well I think it's a combination of things. First, Diego seems to get literally EVERY close decision (and a couple that he wasn't even close to winning). For whatever reason, judges give him credit for doing...whatever he does. And one thing he'll do is move forward. Joe isn't exactly a high output guy. He'll have a rech advantage, but he doesn't have the power to stop Diego's forward movement.

It's not that I don't think Joe can win a decision, he can. But sometimes (not always LOL, but sometimes) it's better to just go with the safer bet. I can't argue there's a little value on Joe's decision line, at +240 it's not bad. But if I was gonna bet it, I'd probably decide how much pre fight I was gonna put on this and hit the o2.5 or fight goes distance with 80% of that $ and then just Joe dec with 20%.
 
Well I think it's a combination of things. First, Diego seems to get literally EVERY close decision (and a couple that he wasn't even close to winning). For whatever reason, judges give him credit for doing...whatever he does. And one thing he'll do is move forward. Joe isn't exactly a high output guy. He'll have a rech advantage, but he doesn't have the power to stop Diego's forward movement.

It's not that I don't think Joe can win a decision, he can. But sometimes (not always LOL, but sometimes) it's better to just go with the safer bet. I can't argue there's a little value on Joe's decision line, at +240 it's not bad. But if I was gonna bet it, I'd probably decide how much pre fight I was gonna put on this and hit the o2.5 or fight goes distance with 80% of that $ and then just Joe dec with 20%.
I think part of what gets Diego those decisions is his aggression. Gomi was passive, Pearson was countering off the back foot all fight picking his shots. I don't think Lauzon will have that problem, I fully expect him to fight fire with fire and get the better of it. He thrives in the heat of battle just as much as Diego, and has more tools to use in those exchanges. His output is only a problem when guys are more tactical than he is, ex. vs Dunham.

You're breakdown is basically what i'm doing. The o2.5 will probably be one of my biggest bets of the week. I plan on making a couple cross event round robins organized by lines I like (-150 to +200, +200 - +500, etc.) and this will definitely be included. Probably one of the inclusions I'll have a small bit on separately as well if it stays above +220 just cause of how much i'm liking that value.
 
To be fair besides the Al fight I am always wrong on Lauzon I always underestimate him. He is easily the fighter I have bet against the most and lost on the most. The Guillard fight still touches a nerve. He is definitely showing wear and tear tho he looked awful against Dunham.
 
How do you guys feel about the Aldo/Edgar fight?
 
How do you guys feel about the Aldo/Edgar fight?

Wish I'd have put more on Edgar dec +324. I bet it for a medium sized bet (for a prop) but in hindsight should have hit it harder.

Nova Uniao and the USADA thing...Edgar looking so freaking good. But Still see this one going the distance.

I think I'll hit Edgar ML too at -115. I really think he gets it done. Probably by dec, but possibly even by stoppage.
 
Anyone else feels that o4.5 in DC/JJ fight is a steal at the current price?
 
Brunson out versus Moose
 
Brunson out versus Moose
Not even mad. I liked Moose, but wasn't a fan of his price. One of the few fights on the card I was trying to decide what to do.

On the other hand, if Santos fills in like he wants to, I have a very strong lean on the play I want.
 


Holy fucking shit.
 
Dude betting 1 mill on Tate.
 
I kind of think that Nunes might starch Tate pretty early.
 
Yessss Santos in for Brunson vs Gegard

Add another strong lean for this card for me. Will wait for lines to open, but I know i'll get a good price on what I want.
 
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