UFC 200 - DC vs JJ 2 - Vegas

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I know there's myriad reasons not to bet Brock, I still haven't and actually might end up on Hunt if the line keeps falling. That being said, call me crazy, but for some reason I have a feeling Brock is gonna be a handful for Hunt, particularly in the first rd. I know I'm far in the minority and the reasoning to fade him is obviously good reasoning. But I can't shake this feeling that Brock has a good shot here. The line is too low to take a shot at, though, so staying away for now. If Hunt somehow keeps getting better, then it'll be hard not to go with him since he's actually been fighting for the last four years. Still have this feeling Brock might pull it out.
 
I know there's myriad reasons not to bet Brock, I still haven't and actually might end up on Hunt if the line keeps falling. That being said, call me crazy, but for some reason I have a feeling Brock is gonna be a handful for Hunt, particularly in the first rd. I know I'm far in the minority and the reasoning to fade him is obviously good reasoning. But I can't shake this feeling that Brock has a good shot here. The line is too low to take a shot at, though, so staying away for now. If Hunt somehow keeps getting better, then it'll be hard not to go with him since he's actually been fighting for the last four years. Still have this feeling Brock might pull it out.

I think I understand what you're saying, but I think you're spot on in saying the line just doesn't justify a bet on Brock. It's not that he CAN'T win, it's just that I think I speak for most in here that are on Hunt in saying that the line is off and it's simply a matter of the value being on Hunt at these odds. If Brock were +275 I'd definitely be on the other side. But Hunt at -155 to -170 is just silly imo.

Sometimes I think name recognition is overstated in how much if affects lines. But not this time. Ask yourself this: If you took the names out of it and Brock Lesnar was Bob Smith (and his record, layoff, everything else was the same) what do you think the line would be? He'd be +300 imo. I'm pretty confident that there's actually people who have already bet Lesnar in this fight that are screaming "Brock's back baby!" that have completely forgotten how he's reacted to getting hit vs Cain, Overeem, or Carwin (before Carwin gassed).

In short, does Brock have a shot? Yeah, definitely. A "good shot"? Nah. +145 is seriously overestimating his chances imo.
 
I was backstage helping corner one of my teammates for Bellator 154 and Cat was back there (super nice person). Not trying to be rude, but she seemed a bit out of shape guys. With that being said I will be taking Pena for this fight partially due to what I saw
It's possible she was on the rag. Women's bodies fluctuate a lot when they're leaking.

Also, Cat usually looks pretty darn thick throughout the year. No idea what her weight cutting regimen is like, but she has always been good enough for 3 rounds.

Gonna be a sick fight.
 
Speaking of Cat/Pena being a sick fight, just goes to show how stacked this card is overall. That fight is the second fight on the card, which could be potentially fotn material. Not to mention the first fight is TJ/Assuncao which is a great fight and somehow is on fightpass, lol.

Also, I just went to bfo and looked at the match ups again. I counted 9 fighters who are either champions or are former champs out of the 22 fighters on the card. DC (bullshit title but still counts), Bones, Frankie, Aldo, Hendricks, Miesha, Cain, Brock, TJ. That's pretty fucking crazy.
 
I think I understand what you're saying, but I think you're spot on in saying the line just doesn't justify a bet on Brock. It's not that he CAN'T win, it's just that I think I speak for most in here that are on Hunt in saying that the line is off and it's simply a matter of the value being on Hunt at these odds. If Brock were +275 I'd definitely be on the other side. But Hunt at -155 to -170 is just silly imo.

Sometimes I think name recognition is overstated in how much if affects lines. But not this time. Ask yourself this: If you took the names out of it and Brock Lesnar was Bob Smith (and his record, layoff, everything else was the same) what do you think the line would be? He'd be +300 imo. I'm pretty confident that there's actually people who have already bet Lesnar in this fight that are screaming "Brock's back baby!" that have completely forgotten how he's reacted to getting hit vs Cain, Overeem, or Carwin (before Carwin gassed).

In short, does Brock have a shot? Yeah, definitely. A "good shot"? Nah. +145 is seriously overestimating his chances imo.

Agree there's too many ?'s to bet him at this price. I can't take him at his current price. If it moves then maybe, but I'm not biting atm. Want to see how the line shakes out, Hunt is still a possibility if he keeps getting better. Same for Brock if he starts to rise a good amount.
 
They seem pretty evenly matched. Expecting a very close scrap in all facets of the game, so why not try to make some dog money? Plus I'm pretty sure Cat took a hiatus from training until her recent move to Alliance.

I do think the over is likely the best play though and where most my money will be going on this fight

Most of her time was spent in Thailand working on her striking which is the weakest part of her game imo. I really like Cat here.
 
Speaking of Cat/Pena being a sick fight, just goes to show how stacked this card is overall. That fight is the second fight on the card, which could be potentially fotn material. Not to mention the first fight is TJ/Assuncao which is a great fight and somehow is on fightpass, lol.

Also, I just went to bfo and looked at the match ups again. I counted 9 fighters who are either champions or are former champs out of the 22 fighters on the card. DC (bullshit title but still counts), Bones, Frankie, Aldo, Hendricks, Miesha, Cain, Brock, TJ. That's pretty fucking crazy.

It's funny that you say that about DC because I actually like him here at those odds.
 
Loving the new search engine and watchlist for Fight Pass. Stacking that list with fights to watch to prepare for Christmas in July
 
Agreed. Hunt is still only -165 on 5d and I just hit that hard. Brock is getting too much respect for what people remember him being in years gone by (eg. beating Mir @ UFC 100).

Meanwhile Hunt has gotten ridiculously sharp with his standup over the past few years. Even when Brock was competitive he never could handle being hit and clearly didn't like it.

Hunt is by far my favourite pick so far in July Madness....

I'd be a little concerned with Brock's explosive takedowns and ground and pound. Do you think Brock's age and time away from the cage will affect that? I'm thinking the time off may be enough to give him 1 great round or at least 3-4 great minutes. After that, I think if Hunt makes it out of round 1, he's the pick. But Brock isn't going to stand with him in the 1st round
 
does anyone like diego over lauzon?

he should have a huge edge in chin and cardio..... i dont see him getting submitted. he will most likely be the guy moving forward which has gotten him decisions in the past.

didnt lauzon fade against evan dunham?
 
I'd be a little concerned with Brock's explosive takedowns and ground and pound. Do you think Brock's age and time away from the cage will affect that? I'm thinking the time off may be enough to give him 1 great round or at least 3-4 great minutes. After that, I think if Hunt makes it out of round 1, he's the pick. But Brock isn't going to stand with him in the 1st round
I think MMA has evolved quite a bit since Brocks last run. You kinda have to set up your TDs with strikes nowadays which i truly doubt Brock can do vs Hunt. Same goes if it gets to the ground, fighters have have better guards nowadays to avoid gnp (including Hunt).
 
No way brock is having any of the stand up with hunt. He'll look to clinch and get a takedown from there I think, if he bull rushes in for a double etc he risks eating a hammer from one of the hardest hitters in the division.

He may look to mix it up with a jab or two seeing as he'll have a reach advantage and then lose the distance from that.
 
BJM will referee Cormier vs Jones. Expecting this guy to try and steal the spot light by getting involved as much as possible on such a big card.
 
BJM will referee Cormier vs Jones. Expecting this guy to try and steal the spot light by getting involved as much as possible on such a big card.
I'm actually happy about this. He seems to no longer have tolerance for having your lead hand fingers extended, and that's pretty necessary to enforce when reffing a Jones fight.
 
guys, its not like Lesnar was a can; he beat legit fighters when he was fighting. he's still a physical specimen who has a great wrestling background. he's gonna absolutely dwarf Hunt too. there is literally no reason for me to think that Hunt can stop his takedown attempt
 
BJM will referee Cormier vs Jones. Expecting this guy to try and steal the spot light by getting involved as much as possible on such a big card.
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Gotta love when referees try and steal the spotlight.
 
I think MMA has evolved quite a bit since Brocks last run. You kinda have to set up your TDs with strikes nowadays which i truly doubt Brock can do vs Hunt. Same goes if it gets to the ground, fighters have have better guards nowadays to avoid gnp (including Hunt).

I agree with your first point. I think MMA has evolved a fair bit since Brock was last fighting. People now understand you need to setup TDs with strikes and Brock will have no chance to do that against Hunt. Hunt has become a true KO artist.

I disagree with the second part about guards. Well maybe in general terms you are right but I think if Brock ever gets on top of Hunt then this fight is over. I would be surprised to see Brock get top control and then end up losing the fight. It is too hard for these big boys to get up when they have two shoulders on the mat.

Anyway I don't think it is relevant because I highly doubt Brock is fast enough to get a TD on Hunt. With Hunt's new diet he actually moves really well and I think he will make Brock's TDs look bad followed by a r1 KO for Hunt.
 
guys, its not like Lesnar was a can; he beat legit fighters when he was fighting. he's still a physical specimen who has a great wrestling background. he's gonna absolutely dwarf Hunt too. there is literally no reason for me to think that Hunt can stop his takedown attempt

You are right that he isn't a can. As you say it really comes down to whether or not Brock finds the TD in r1. I don't think he gets it..... or maybe Hunt lands on him coming in?
 
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