UFC 201 - Lawler vs Woodley - Atlanta

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sorry if I offended anyone by comparing the Nunes-Tate fight with Woodley-Lawler... I thought they are pretty damn similar situations. Similar odds, similar challengers, similar expected outcomes. Of course they aren't carbon copy fights. I was just merely pointing out big value in Woodley R1 +850 compared to his ML of +175...
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Sorry if I offended anyone by comparing the Nunes-Tate fight with Woodley-Lawler... I thought they are pretty damn similar situations. Similar odds, similar challengers, similar expected outcomes. Of course they aren't carbon copy fights. I was just merely pointing out big value in Woodley R1 +850 compared to his ML of +175...
Click to expand...
How DARE you give your honest opinion on an open forum and upset a few people whom don't share your opinion...

majorpaynescreaming1.gif
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Sorry if I offended anyone by comparing the Nunes-Tate fight with Woodley-Lawler... I thought they are pretty damn similar situations. Similar odds, similar challengers, similar expected outcomes. Of course they aren't carbon copy fights. I was just merely pointing out big value in Woodley R1 +850 compared to his ML of +175...
Click to expand...
I was VERY offended by that comparison, and I'm not sure a simple "sorry" is enough. I'd appreciate a paragraph PMd to me about why that comparison was inappropriate, and then I will reply with my paypal info so you can send me some money
 
In all seriousness, how else does Woodley win the fight if goes over 1.5rounds? He either gets finished or loses a decision.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
In all seriousness, how else does Woodley win the fight if goes over 1.5rounds? He either gets finished or loses a decision.
Click to expand...
Definitely crazy value at those odds. +500 would seem more appropriate. Unless he can some how get his wrestling going which is doubtful, this will be all Robbie after the first
 
piglord said:
livebet lawler after round 1, irrespective of how the round goes.

woodley in the championship rounds is a disaster waiting to happen.
Click to expand...

could very well be, and I'm not trying to talk you out of it, but to play devil's advocate, lawler's chin is also a disaster waiting to happen lol, especially with his style and penchant for brutal wars of attrition.
 
Roads55 said:
could very well be, and I'm not trying to talk you out of it but to play devil's advocate, lawler's chin is also a disaster waiting to happen lol, especially with his style and penchant for brutal wars of attrition.
Click to expand...

agree, when lawler's chin and athleticism fades he's going to have a VERY rapid decline. still i don't think we're there yet and gassed woodley is not knocking him out in rounds 2-5 imo.
 
piglord said:
agree, when lawler's chin and athleticism fades he's going to have a VERY rapid decline. still i don't think we're there yet and gassed woodley is not knocking him out in rounds 2-5 imo.
Click to expand...

yeah I don't think woodley will be the one to finish what nick diaz started with lawler's chin but it's got to happen at some point(wonderboy springs to mind) and I just can't bring myself to play lawler unless it's a decent priced prop, tbh I'm not overly keen on betting this fight at all, but I've not researched it yet so I may change my mind
 
For some reason I just keep imagining Woodley landing a massive overhand right and knocking Robbie out cold.
 
Outside of a haymaker landing this is lawlers fight. Woodley cannot fight off the back foot. Lawler needs to pressure and wood will have nothing.
 
I feel the same way about Lawler/Woodley, as I did about Holm/Shev, but in reverse. As in, Holm/Shev going to a decision was a better price to pay than bet the favorite, because it included the most likely route for Shev winning also.

As for Lawler/Woodley, fight does NOT go to a decision @-185 is a better price to pay than Lawler ML imo, because it includes Woodley landing a bomb early or Lawler getting a stoppage through attrition in later rounds, or basically any other scenario that involves a finish.
 
Last edited:
Joseph Budden said:
Definitely crazy value at those odds. +500 would seem more appropriate. Unless he can some how get his wrestling going which is doubtful, this will be all Robbie after the first
Click to expand...
Pretty much how I feel. I think Woodley has a round and a half to finish this fight. Otherwise, he loses
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Sorry if I offended anyone by comparing the Nunes-Tate fight with Woodley-Lawler... I thought they are pretty damn similar situations. Similar odds, similar challengers, similar expected outcomes. Of course they aren't carbon copy fights. I was just merely pointing out big value in Woodley R1 +850 compared to his ML of +175...
Click to expand...

Dude I'm on that too and on Woodley KO at +405. I think his power hangs around a bit longer and he's capable of winning anytime inside the first 3 rounds. Robbie CAN become a pressure fighter at times (which would zap Woodley's energy) but he also takes stretches (sometimes entire rounds) off in order to go balls out down the stretch. So I think Woodley will have 15 minutes where he's dangerous, then if it's not over one way or the other by then Robbie is gonna put him away in the 4th or 5th.

But yeah Woodley rd 1 is insane value. And I would think a must for anyone betting Robbie as their hedge.

And the line is now +600 for Woodley rd 1. Glad I took that early.
 
Roads55 said:
yeah I don't think woodley will be the one to finish what nick diaz started with lawler's chin but it's got to happen at some point(wonderboy springs to mind) and I just can't bring myself to play lawler unless it's a decent priced prop, tbh I'm not overly keen on betting this fight at all, but I've not researched it yet so I may change my mind
Click to expand...

Dude that Diaz fight was like a decade ago. It was just one of those fluke shots that landed perfectly as Robbie was moving into it.

I do agree Robbie's chin is probably gonna go sooner rather than later. He's just eaten too many clean shots and he's been fighting too long for it not to. It could be Woodley that does it. I'm pretty sure if Woodley lands clean on any WW he's capable of putting them completely to sleep. That said, it's an extremely tough thing to predict when a guy's chin will go. With Robbie it could be this week or it could be a couple years and half a dozen more fights.
 
One tip about the main event: Woodley does not like to be pressured. Rory pressured him relentlessly and so did Jake Shields. Lawler is a pressure fighter so take that into account before we talk about Woodley having value. Not all fights have value, you cannot force value in a dog pick. Capping is both a science and an art, most bettors don't cap well enough to find true value.

There's one fight on this card that I think has more value than bargain hunters shopping at value village. I won't tip my hand, but when I saw the opening line lets just say I hit it with a thousands smashes of Thor's Hammer.

- Barry
 
barrygood1 said:
One tip about the main event: Woodley does not like to be pressured. Rory pressured him relentlessly and so did Jake Shields. Lawler is a pressure fighter so take that into account before we talk about Woodley having value. Not all fights have value, you cannot force value in a dog pick. Capping is both a science and an art, most bettors don't cap well enough to find true value.

There's one fight on this card that I think has more value than bargain hunters shopping at value village. I won't tip my hand, but when I saw the opening line lets just say I hit it with a thousands smashes of Thor's Hammer.

- Barry
Click to expand...
Barry,

Thanks to your Nunes and Shevchenko picks my summer has been filled with $$$. I think it's safe to say you have a way with women ;) soon I will be having a child and as an unemployment registered sex offender, your picks are heavily relied on to keep me afloat financially. If you would like to PM me about costs for your services I will look into it, but PLEASE share this pick and help a follower out
 
piglord said:
any intel on this sandovdal guy?
Click to expand...
From the bit I've seen and remember he definitely is a UFC worthy talent. Trains with alpha male, and is styled after those guys with good hands, solid wrestling and scrambling. Need to refresh my memory and try to watch what's on YouTube soon, but Reis dec could have value if it's + odds
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,236,718
Messages
55,437,167
Members
174,774
Latest member
Ruckus245

Share this page

Back
Top