UFC 201 - Lawler vs Woodley - Atlanta
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Brad Taschuk - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-201-betting-odds/
Nikita Krylov has all the physical advantages in this fight, and he’s been showing steady improvement since coming into the UFC, but I won’t ever be able to forget him getting Von Flue choked by OSP. If OSP can do that to him, Ed Herman can grab a sub. Will Herman actually pull it off? Probably not, he’s too slow and broken down at this point to hang with Krylov’s activity, but it’s nearly impossible to play a guy who is as sloppy as Krylov at a big price against a vet like Herman. I’ll be looking for the number on Herman by sub here, and that’s probably it.
A guy who is hard to trust for the exact opposite reasons of Krylov is Jorge Masvidal. Technically, he’s better than Ross Pearson everywhere, but he’s so prone to spells of inactivity that he gives rounds away. I still have to pick him here, even though these tend to be the kind of spots where Ross Pearson overperforms. Perhaps the angle to take is that Masvidal will be good enough to win with his combination of slick boxing and a superior grappling game, but during one of the rounds he simply won’t do enough to win. Pearson +3.5 could have legs.
Wilson Reis goes from a title shot to a bout against a UFC newcomer. Talk about a spot for a potential letdown. There are also several flyweights who could snatch his number one contender spot if he doesn’t put on a quality performance. Those factors are enough to keep my from betting Reis straight, but I think he’ll have a hard time getting away from his grinding roots, and the Over 2.5 could be worth a play.
Freddy Serrano is 36, has three pro fights, and is taking a massive step up in competition. He does bring a wrestling advantage into his bout with Ryan Benoit, but has been more than willing to slug with opponents thus far. That’s right in Benoit’s wheelhouse, and the 26-year-old has solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet as well. The more I think about this fight, the more I want to play Benoit, but he’s not really a round winner, so the TKO or ITD props may be the way to go.
Mike Graves is still yet to get the kind of support I expected him to coming off of TUF. This may be the spot where that changes, but I think that could be a misguided decision by bettors. Bojan Velickovic is built to give grappling based fighters problems, and he’s done that at every stage of his career. His size and strength combine nicely with solid technical defensive grappling to stonewall most wrestlers. While his UFC debut wouldn’t have inspired much confidence, I think he’s significantly better than that fight showed, and will hang around in the UFC. Graves still probably gets the win, but I won’t be betting him, especially if the public pushes it up.
Anthony Hamilton is a very flawed fighter, but he has the makeup and tools to beat Damian Grabowski. Hamilton is 5 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier, and has decent offensive wrestling. Grabowski will often spend more time than he should searching for a submission, and while that has worked against regional level heavyweights, even a lower-tier UFC fighter like Hamilton should be able to stay safe. I like Hamilton, and consequently, the Over 1.5 in this fight. Fatties gonna fatty.
This opener is an ugly fight. Cesar Arzimendia seems like he’s supposed to be a prospect, but too often looks completely lost. Brown lost to way too many guys in his Cage Warriors run for me to think he has much of a future. Two things Brown does possess are cardio and toughness however, and I think that’s enough to survive Arzimendia early and then force the Paraguayan to crumble late.
Nikita Krylov has all the physical advantages in this fight, and he’s been showing steady improvement since coming into the UFC, but I won’t ever be able to forget him getting Von Flue choked by OSP. If OSP can do that to him, Ed Herman can grab a sub. Will Herman actually pull it off? Probably not, he’s too slow and broken down at this point to hang with Krylov’s activity, but it’s nearly impossible to play a guy who is as sloppy as Krylov at a big price against a vet like Herman. I’ll be looking for the number on Herman by sub here, and that’s probably it.
A guy who is hard to trust for the exact opposite reasons of Krylov is Jorge Masvidal. Technically, he’s better than Ross Pearson everywhere, but he’s so prone to spells of inactivity that he gives rounds away. I still have to pick him here, even though these tend to be the kind of spots where Ross Pearson overperforms. Perhaps the angle to take is that Masvidal will be good enough to win with his combination of slick boxing and a superior grappling game, but during one of the rounds he simply won’t do enough to win. Pearson +3.5 could have legs.
Wilson Reis goes from a title shot to a bout against a UFC newcomer. Talk about a spot for a potential letdown. There are also several flyweights who could snatch his number one contender spot if he doesn’t put on a quality performance. Those factors are enough to keep my from betting Reis straight, but I think he’ll have a hard time getting away from his grinding roots, and the Over 2.5 could be worth a play.
Freddy Serrano is 36, has three pro fights, and is taking a massive step up in competition. He does bring a wrestling advantage into his bout with Ryan Benoit, but has been more than willing to slug with opponents thus far. That’s right in Benoit’s wheelhouse, and the 26-year-old has solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet as well. The more I think about this fight, the more I want to play Benoit, but he’s not really a round winner, so the TKO or ITD props may be the way to go.
Mike Graves is still yet to get the kind of support I expected him to coming off of TUF. This may be the spot where that changes, but I think that could be a misguided decision by bettors. Bojan Velickovic is built to give grappling based fighters problems, and he’s done that at every stage of his career. His size and strength combine nicely with solid technical defensive grappling to stonewall most wrestlers. While his UFC debut wouldn’t have inspired much confidence, I think he’s significantly better than that fight showed, and will hang around in the UFC. Graves still probably gets the win, but I won’t be betting him, especially if the public pushes it up.
Anthony Hamilton is a very flawed fighter, but he has the makeup and tools to beat Damian Grabowski. Hamilton is 5 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier, and has decent offensive wrestling. Grabowski will often spend more time than he should searching for a submission, and while that has worked against regional level heavyweights, even a lower-tier UFC fighter like Hamilton should be able to stay safe. I like Hamilton, and consequently, the Over 1.5 in this fight. Fatties gonna fatty.
This opener is an ugly fight. Cesar Arzimendia seems like he’s supposed to be a prospect, but too often looks completely lost. Brown lost to way too many guys in his Cage Warriors run for me to think he has much of a future. Two things Brown does possess are cardio and toughness however, and I think that’s enough to survive Arzimendia early and then force the Paraguayan to crumble late.
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Herman +160?!?! Yes please
Also hit Graves, Hamilton, and parlayed Reis + o2.5 Pearson vs Masvidal
Also hit Graves, Hamilton, and parlayed Reis + o2.5 Pearson vs Masvidal
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graves-velickovic is a super interesting fight. really like both guys.
i do think graves is the better wrestler and better fundamentals on the ground, but velickovic is gonna be longer, has darn crafty subs of his own, and prolly better standup. he also might have the cardio edge here.
taking bojan +180
i do think graves is the better wrestler and better fundamentals on the ground, but velickovic is gonna be longer, has darn crafty subs of his own, and prolly better standup. he also might have the cardio edge here.
taking bojan +180
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I also think Bojan is a good addition to the UFC, he has a solid record but I was totally unimpressed with his UFC debut.
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it was short notice and up a weight class
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I know.... But look at the level of his opponent. Even short notice and up a weight class, he shouldn't be having a close fight against a guy like that. .
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i actually think di chirico isn't bad
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Taking Masvidal. Threat of grappling will give him an edge in the striking. Has a good chance of getting Pearson down as well.
Also taking Reis. Really bad matchup for Sandoval. Won't be able to grapple and his striking looks pretty bad other than pure power.
Also taking Reis. Really bad matchup for Sandoval. Won't be able to grapple and his striking looks pretty bad other than pure power.
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i'm never laying 2:1 on masvidal vs anyone halfway decent in the ufc. the guy is just always in close fights
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krylov has been U1.5 in 22 of his 24 fights (and was 41 seconds away from 23/24)
he's about as aggressive as ANYONE on the ufc roster. herman is game but slower now. staying at 205 to me means he's not putting the work in. and he's getting old.
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Lawler says I'm not a teammate, but I own an ATT gym, I'm going to put him on his back, wrestle
I do acting, I'm been in a ton of stuff, Condit didn't expect my power, Lawler's not faster than me, I have a better skill set
I do acting, I'm been in a ton of stuff, Condit didn't expect my power, Lawler's not faster than me, I have a better skill set
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Doubt it. I LOVE Herman at +160. I would say its almost guaranteed this goes to the clinch, where Herman is savvy, skilled, experienced, rugged. Clear wrestling advantage. Hes not going to gas and get sloppy like the last two Brazilians Krylov fought. Despite being smaller he may be more physical. Krylov is still wild and sloppy as hell. Whats his path to victory here? Create a scramble and grab a sub? Not gonna be easy vs Herman.
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I've never been so close to my fight weight, feeling great, nice easy cut, was a bit nervous in my UFC debut, fought a weight class above, I could wrestle grind all my RFA fights, but this guy was so heavy, so I moved and striked, he won the 3rd round, had my respect, I would rematch him at my weight, I was ATT for 3-4 years and Graves and I were teammates, we joined at the same time, he gave me hell with wrestling, threw me all around, his standup wasn't great, but we haven't trained in 2 years, we're both tough, lets see who's improved more, training with Magny and Matt Brown, Thatch, I will go and do my best
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lol one of the biggest confidence increases in recent memory; Bojan saying Graves tossed him around in training.
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Herman is not more physical, not close. I don't think old Herman will be able to withstand the pressure. He has the speed of an asthmatic heavyweight. He may be able to survive some time, but Krylov will outwork him all day. He did KO Tim in a slobfest, but that's his only highlight in the last few years, and he's inactive fighting wise.
This will be the young eating the old type of fight I think.
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