UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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Yep agree on Diaz but 5d has his KO line at +530. Honestly, I think it's just as likely he wins by TKO as by sub. Conor just happened to give his back and the choke last time. I'm all over this KO line.

Can't figure out those on Story though. Cerrone's guard is ridiculously good and I cannot see Story winning a striking match. He can try to hold Cowboy against the cage and make it ugly I guess but after the Cote fight I'm done doubting Cowboy against anyone other than the elite top 5 type guys. And while Story is solid, he's not in that league. I think Cowboy stops him.

I like Glover at the current odds. My hedge being the u1.5 since if Rumble wins it's most likely early (but it's possible Glover catches him too).

I'm not advocating a play on Story, but I do want to point out that he rips to the body often. The guy is underrated. Maia is the only one who has finished him in the UFC and he has a lot of fights. He's come through as the dog quite a bit as well.
 
I'm not advocating a play on Story, but I do want to point out that he rips to the body often. The guy is underrated. Maia is the only one who has finished him in the UFC and he has a lot of fights. He's come through as the dog quite a bit as well.

Agree I think Story is probably a borderline top 10 type guy but Cowboy seems to literally only lose to guys even better than that. And (I know it's 2 fights so not a large sample size) Cerrone has actually looked much better at 170. Not that he's ever had cardio issues, but I think not having to cut any weight makes him a guy who can pretty much go all out the entire fight. His volume actually picked up in rd 3 vs Cote.

I think there's just way more paths to victory for Cerrone. Not saying Story can't win (and if this line was something like Cowboy -225 to -250 I wouldn't touch him and may well play Story) but I absolutely favor Cerrone to win maybe 2/3 of the time. At -160 I think the value is on him. Good point about him being very tough to finish though. I thought he'd been stopped 2 or 3 times but I was wrong. As of now I'm only on Cowboy's ML but was gonna play him itd as well. I still probably will but for less.
 
So are we all on Nate? Any GOAT backers want to share their thoughts?

It already looks unlikely that GOAT can put Diaz away. Can he box for 5 rounds to a dec win? Possible but unlikely it's just not his style to hit and move and then he has to avoid Diaz for five rounds. Im so tempted to go huge on Diaz but i think lb after r1 while surely not as generous as last time is the way to go. If GOAT completely controls r1 what kind of crazy odds will we get?! Im just worried if i go this way that Diaz puts up a much better r1 now that he has had a camp.
 
I just wanna bet Nate after rd 1 or 2. Not sure I'll bet Him pre
 
Agree I think Story is probably a borderline top 10 type guy but Cowboy seems to literally only lose to guys even better than that. And (I know it's 2 fights so not a large sample size) Cerrone has actually looked much better at 170. Not that he's ever had cardio issues, but I think not having to cut any weight makes him a guy who can pretty much go all out the entire fight. His volume actually picked up in rd 3 vs Cote.

I think there's just way more paths to victory for Cerrone. Not saying Story can't win (and if this line was something like Cowboy -225 to -250 I wouldn't touch him and may well play Story) but I absolutely favor Cerrone to win maybe 2/3 of the time. At -160 I think the value is on him. Good point about him being very tough to finish though. I thought he'd been stopped 2 or 3 times but I was wrong. As of now I'm only on Cowboy's ML but was gonna play him itd as well. I still probably will but for less.

This is going to sound weird, but I would maybe look into the straight ITD over Cowboy ITD. You still get + odds and it covers Story ITD as well. I know Story isn't one to finish often, but I wouldn't rule out him catching Cerrone hard to the body or even landing one of his winging punches to the face. Story has had guys hurt quite a bit even though he didn't finish.

It's weird to me how much of a 180 people are doing though. I was on Cerrone over Cote and thought people were nuts playing Cote. Story is absolutely better than Cote and I think he'd beat Cote, yet people are ruling Story out.
 
This is going to sound weird, but I would maybe look into the straight ITD over Cowboy ITD. You still get + odds and it covers Story ITD as well. I know Story isn't one to finish often, but I wouldn't rule out him catching Cerrone hard to the body or even landing one of his winging punches to the face. Story has had guys hurt quite a bit even though he didn't finish.

It's weird to me how much of a 180 people are doing though. I was on Cerrone over Cote and thought people were nuts playing Cote. Story is absolutely better than Cote and I think he'd beat Cote, yet people are ruling Story out.

Well there's people itt on Story too though. I could see a body shot hurting Cowboy but he absorbs head shots amazingly well. The thing about Cowboy too is that unlike a lot of guys that Story has fought Cowboy's guard allows him to take chances striking that other guys won't. He isn't afraid if being taken down because he knows his guard is a nightmare to deal with. His straight knee down the middle specifically is something Story better be very aware of. As he presses forward and looks to clinch/level change he could eat one and end up looking up at the lights.

I was actually on Cote by dec. Stylistically I thought it was a tougher fight for Cowboy (though I agree overall Story is better than Cote). I was wrong. Cerrone dominates him. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he also dominates Story. Cowboy at 170 might be far better than Cowboy at 155.
 
Cant decide if I'm going big on Nate, but I'm leaning on it. Conor did not react well to taking punches from Diaz in the first time.

And also he is quite muscular build, don't think he can outwork Nate for 5 rounds, might get a KO but Nate is damn durable.

Odds will probably increase on Nate or what do you guys think?
 
Really enjoyed this breakdown from Firas:

 
Anyone else thinking about making a large play on Nate at + money? I have 2u at +100 from long ago and am tempted to add like another 6-8 units more at +115 or whatever it ends up being for one of my biggest single ML plays ever. Only serious worry is if Nate comes in out of shape or messes around thinking it will be easy this time.
 
Who did he pick?
I watched only the last 60 seconds: he said it would be a much harder fight than the first one and picked Nate by late stoppage or decision, 55/45 in Nate's favor, increasing probability to Nate's side in the later rounds.
 
Anyone else thinking about making a large play on Nate at + money? I have 2u at +100 from long ago and am tempted to add like another 6-8 units more at +115 or whatever it ends up being for one of my biggest single ML plays ever. Only serious worry is if Nate comes in out of shape or messes around thinking it will be easy this time.

I have 3.5u on his ML at +115.

I put .75u on his KO line at +530, I think that's just too much value to pass up. I'm good with what I have but if the Conor crazies go nuts and Nate goes to +140 or something I will have to add a couple more units.
 
Anyone else thinking about making a large play on Nate at + money? I have 2u at +100 from long ago and am tempted to add like another 6-8 units more at +115 or whatever it ends up being for one of my biggest single ML plays ever. Only serious worry is if Nate comes in out of shape or messes around thinking it will be easy this time.
I have 3.5u on his ML at +115.

I put .75u on his KO line at +530, I think that's just too much value to pass up. I'm good with what I have but if the Conor crazies go nuts and Nate goes to +140 or something I will have to add a couple more units.
Yeah I think there has to be a few of us who are about to go hard as hell on this fight lol granted Not Conor itd is my biggest play, but Nate no sc and Nate ml are both getting hammered
 
^^^^^Oh yeah and forgot I have 2.5u on the o2.5 too. So yeah, I guess I'm already pretty invested in this fight LOL.
 
Anyone else thinking about making a large play on Nate at + money? I have 2u at +100 from long ago and am tempted to add like another 6-8 units more at +115 or whatever it ends up being for one of my biggest single ML plays ever. Only serious worry is if Nate comes in out of shape or messes around thinking it will be easy this time.

Considering it.
 
Or Nate messes around because he wants a third payday with Connor....
 
Or Nate messes around because he wants a third payday with Connor....
That can't possibly be a real consideration in Nate's mind, "Lemme fool around and throw the fight to set up a rubber match". You'd have to assume he'd have the mentality to do that despite the pressure to win from his brother and training partners and that would be a better outcome than winning impressively and taking whatever other fights may come naturally and still have the possibility to re-match Conor later, maybe at 155 pounds.
 
The Diaz brothers dont really care about titles and rankings they say it loud that they want big payday all the time. Anyway I dont like Connor but I think he will ko Nate at 202
 
That can't possibly be a real consideration in Nate's mind, "Lemme fool around and throw the fight to set up a rubber match". You'd have to assume he'd have the mentality to do that despite the pressure to win from his brother and training partners and that would be a better outcome than winning impressively and taking whatever other fights may come naturally and still have the possibility to re-match Conor later, maybe at 155 pounds.

There's no chance Nate doesn't 100% want to win this fight. Between this and the first fight he's already making more $ than he ever thought he would. Even if he were to lose there's no guarantee at all of a rubber match. And his star continues to rise if he wins. 3-4 years ago does anyone think that Nate believed he'd be having a twitter war with Bieber and then talking about it on Conan?

Nate is gonna try take Conor out the same way he did the first time.
 
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