UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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Lots of people confident that Nate is gonna take it again although the line has barely moved. I pray that Conor closes in as a dog so I can make this free money <33>
 
Lots of people confident that Nate is gonna take it again although the line has barely moved. I pray that Conor closes in as a dog so I can make this free money <33>

Interesting, I like to hear contrarian opinions to my own. You think Conor by KO or dec?
 
No way Connor wins this by decision

Disagree. (Don't get me wrong I don't think he WILL, but I do think he CAN).

Conor will most definitely have to change his style to win a decision, but it's possible. Joe B has laid it out before, and while unlikely imo I do find it plausible that he can pick his shots better and conserve some energy yet still be busy enough to win the early rounds. I see basically no way he wins the later rounds but if he's built a lead and still has enough left to at least survive Nate's volume he could get the nod. Again, it will take a big adjustment. He needs to attack the lead leg more with kicks, resist the temptation to throw so many power shots (even when he's landing) and show improved cardio. Again, unlikely. But far from impossible.
 
Interesting, I like to hear contrarian opinions to my own. You think Conor by KO or dec?

I wouldn't place a prop bet on this one if I'm being honest, but I just feel like Conor will find a way. I'm actually more confident in him now than I was going into the first fight. I thought the combination of him taking Nate lightly and the style difference from RDA to Nate on such short notice was gonna be a problem, seeing as Nate was/is a wayyy tougher match up stylistically for him. I don't think his cardio will be an issue and I feel like his movements/dynamic offense along with his pressure will be too much. I think 'Cabo Nate' is kind of a myth and yes obviously Nate wasn't 100%, but the shots he ate would most likely land 9 times out of 10 regardless of his preparation.

Gun to my head, I'd say a 49-46ish decision or late TKO for McGregor.
 
Connor was done after 2 rounds with a full camp against a guy who had 10 days to train, he wont be able to follow Nates pace for 5 rounds, he has to win in 3 rounds...
 
I wouldn't place a prop bet on this one if I'm being honest, but I just feel like Conor will find a way. I'm actually more confident in him now than I was going into the first fight. I thought the combination of him taking Nate lightly and the style difference from RDA to Nate on such short notice was gonna be a problem, seeing as Nate was/is a wayyy tougher match up stylistically for him. I don't think his cardio will be an issue and I feel like his movements/dynamic offense along with his pressure will be too much. I think 'Cabo Nate' is kind of a myth and yes obviously Nate wasn't 100%, but the shots he ate would most likely land 9 times out of 10 regardless of his preparation.

Gun to my head, I'd say a 49-46ish decision or late TKO for McGregor.

Totally agree that a non-tired Conor lands on Nate regardless. Maybe Nate with a full camp avoids SOME of those shots, but he's still gonna get hit. You are right that Conor's dynamic offense is good enough to land on any version of Nate. The thing I'm trying to figure out is if that's really going to matter.

If Conor consciously throws less power shots he'll conserve energy (which is good of course) but any modicum of respect Nate has for his power will go away. But if Conor does what he's always done and lands power shots and Nate just eats them again (and I can't see why he wouldn't, Conor isn't learning to punch harder and Nate's chin won't be any different) then we'll see Conor tire again. (Maybe later in the fight with improved cardio but he's never gonna have enough to hang with Nate late in a fight).

I am extremely interested to see how Conor comes out in this fight. I'm sure he has a gameplan and has made adjustments, I just wonder what they are.
 
The last fight was mostly a boxing match, I wouldn't be surprised if McGregor came out with a kick heavy gameplan as they're more likely to get the knockout.
 
If Conor tries to wrestle i know nothing about this sport.
 
Anyone else thinking about making a large play on Nate at + money? I have 2u at +100 from long ago and am tempted to add like another 6-8 units more at +115 or whatever it ends up being for one of my biggest single ML plays ever. Only serious worry is if Nate comes in out of shape or messes around thinking it will be easy this time.

I've thought about going huge on Diaz, but I do think McGregor has the edge if he slows down the pace and strikes from beyond jab distance in the beginning of the fight, utilizing kicks, etc. Whether or not he will be too stubborn for this, I'm not quite sure.

At the current line Diaz is the clear pick, though.
 
Conor should kick the shit out of that lead leg, nate never checks kicks

Conor propably has the wrasslin advantage, nate only goes for low percentage judo throws, if goat can score some late round takedowns he could win some points on the score cards holding top position.

That said Im on nate +140
 
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