UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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for what its worth, i think Rumble decision is more likely than GT decision
 
barrygood1 said:
When a fighter is the taller/bigger fighter, has the reach advantage, has superior cardio for a 5 rounder and possesses a more diverse skill set, would this not be considered the very definition of value? To expand even further, how does a fighter with all of these advantages including a previous win (might I add) come in as an underdog? It's certainly a perplexing question, which, rests upon the shoulders of a seasoned capper to do the appropriate deep capping analysis to understand whats truly going on. One cannot rule out the 3 letter F word because I've been in this game long enough to realize when money is at stake "the powers that be" want prime grade A steak and that ain't cheap. Now don't take this as a Barry endorsement for Nate Diaz to win over Conor because I've yet to to take the time to go in-depth i.e watching tape analyzing variables and weighing every last minute detail. What I'm trying to convey here for the unenlightened is the need to always be asking questions the "what ifs". Let's be honest, professional full time capping isn't for the faint of heart. There's a reason why most bettors want to take the easy route by tailing successful cappers or paying for capping services. Its hard and most aren't "tough enough" to withstand the highs & lows of it.

Due to the magnitude of UFC 202 main event I will be donating a full fight card with Barry's personal picks (3-5 picks) even though I haven't reach the required Likes milestone for unlocking freeplays. It's my way of giving back and it doesn't hurt to do these one offs once in a blue moon. The value I provide is second to none, so rest assured, when I post these picks make absolutely sure to tail them because it's essentially free $$$ and a bankroll builder.

- Barry
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Thanks bro

Bol this next card
 
@barrygood1

Since the UFC is holding cards for 10 weeks in a row (or something like that) starting with this event, I challenge you to a barry challenge. Are you man enough to accept?
 
Garbrandt
Magny
Covington
Means
Cerrone

I'll be going pretty heavy on these

Especially cowboy

I bet garbrant comes in -450

The rest evens or -180 -230 range
 
MONEYLINE said:
Garbrandt
Magny
Covington
Means
Cerrone

I'll be going pretty heavy on these

Especially cowboy

I bet garbrant comes in -450

The rest evens or -180 -230 range
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Means doesn't have an opponent right now. Strickland is out
 
@robbiedawg are we still on for the sig bet? you back Magny and I back Larkin

(for the record, Magny is one of my fav fighters and it pains me to go against him)
 
Barry is good at bullshitting. Good use of buzz words etc. Kunt was probably a car salesman.
 
EzFlyer said:
Indeed. Huge bet on cowboy here. I'm so impressed by his last two fights.

You have to always worry about the body shots and slow start issues for him, but I think he puts a beatdown on story.

I only see him losing if story is able to wall him and continually dig body shots. If story is able to take him down, a sub is a real possibility.
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Even the slow start issues seem to have gone away. Easily outclassed Cote early and finished BC in the 1st.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Mike perry anyone?
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He's a decent prospect.

He has a win over Jon Manley and finished him. Manley put up a bit of a fight vs Neil Magny.

I think it's safe to say someone is getting ko'd in this fight.
 
Holding off on betting Cerrone.
6 of his 7 losses are against southpaws. His striking and range seems much more limited against them. Going to live bet this one
 
Just watched Diaz-MacG. An immediate rematch makes me believe that we see a similar fight again. This obviously makes their first fight very important. My observations, FWIW (apologies for the length but anyways):

Round 1:
3:50 - First left lands for Conor
2:55 - First jabs begin from Diaz
2:22 - Uppercut lands for Conor (does he stagger Diaz?)
2:11 - Hard left lands for Conor
1:56 - Another hard left lands
1:48 - Giant left lands for Conor (I swear Diaz is staggered here, he hides it so well). The crowd roars and, inexplicably, Rogan mentions the "right hands landing from Diaz!".
1:33 - Conor rope-a-doping Diaz shots. Can see his confidence surge.
1:23 - Perfect sidekick to Diaz knee. Ugly connection.
1:13 - Conor opens him up on the right brow with another solid punch.
0:55 - Conor's mouth opens up after a few jabs land. McG becomes stumbly.
0:39 - Pathetic takedown and Conor is on his back, gets chewed up but Diaz rolls to guard on purpose.
0:10 - Conor ends round in better looking position but it is clear from this short exchange that he is outclassed on the ground.

Easy 10-9 Conor.

Between Rounds:
-Diaz looks tired but not breathing that hard. Bloody.
-Conor smiling and looking confident. Breathing hard the whole time.

Round 2:
4:23 - Huge body shot lands for McG
4:06 - Huge left from Conor (Rogan and that other guy say nothing. The other guy busy saying how these guys won't worry about getting tired...). Truly think Diaz was almost KO'd here.
3:57 - Another giant left lands.
3:48 - Uppercut bobbles Diaz head. This exchange was where Conor came closest to KO imo.
3:43 - Extremely smart Nate clinches Conor. I think he was on autopilot here.
3:25 - Diaz lands a hard jab dead on the chin
3:05 - Conor's hands go down and never really come up again
3:00 - Conor gasses
2:22 - Conor staggered huge
2:06 - Conor getting backed up for first time.
1:30 - Clinch domination by Diaz
1:15 - Last punches from McG. A lot land and land hard but one flush right from Diaz re-staggers McG.
1:10 - Goes for takedown.
0:50 - Fight's done. (Rogan makes my blood pressure skyrocket with his shrieking)

Notwithstanding the finish, I would expect scorecards to be all over the place on this round. 10-9 either way but it would be easier to argue 10-9 Diaz.

Conor hits him with his best and Diaz does not show or get too phased by it. An argument can be made that Diaz gets very hurt and nears getting KO'd but nothing is really evident and shown to us watching. Conor could win this by decision if his cardio holds. We know Conor WILL land, does a left hit behind Diaz ear this time? Does his jaw take one dead on?

Diaz, we know, can KO Conor and is FAR superior on the ground and in the clinch. We know Diaz will take it there if he gets in trouble too. Diaz will probably get lit up again in the early going and then, assuming he survives it, take over.

1) Both men will get proper opponent preparation this time around so I like the over 2.5 in the rematch. O3.5 maybe too. Fight starts Round 3.
2) Conor wins by decision (or TKO (Doctor stoppage by Dr. O'Brien o_O) - Round 4)
3) Diaz wins by guillotine or arm triangle choke - Round 4
 
Must remember to see what Jake shields betting slip says.......
 
Johnbmma1 said:
Holding off on betting Cerrone.
6 of his 7 losses are against southpaws. His striking and range seems much more limited against them. Going to live bet this one
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Not a bad point honestly but given how different Story is stylistically with his striking than pretty much any of those guys I'm not putting much stock in it personally.
 
i don't get the ''conor can win a decision'' speculation what so ever, there is no tangiable footage or anything else of substance to base that on. on the flipside there are plenty of examples to bring up, of why it's extremely unlikely he'd be able to steal a decision from nate (or to even make it 25 minutes)
 
Agree with story and his body punches, but cowboy has seemed to address and try to improve that weak kidney although can you really fix it! Can't count story out, hits hard always and has shown good striking in the past (nelson/tarec).

Must remember to hit a small flyer on that split draw just in case with larkin and magny, both guys have split d multiple times in their past few fights, and have both got that style where they make fights super close as it is, could end in a draw. This fights the early prelim starter so ffs, either way reckon both guys are durable and it reckon it goes to decision, judges love magnys style lately too.

Anyone reckon glover works on his wrestling and submission game here? Glover does have that 2nd degree bjj belt and many guillotine and various choke subs which seems to be rumbles weakness
(4 rear naked choke sub losses), may just hit glover sub prop in r2/r3, but its hard to not like rumble su or decision.
 
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