UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland

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I can see mccall being the dog and i think this is a hard fight for borg style wise.
 
I really like Stipe here, he feels so much smarter and less worn down than so many of the HWs. I'm pretty sure he won't set back and let Mediumreem play his slow counter game, but also mix up takedowns...
 
^^I'm leaning Stipe too, but I think I like the o1.5 a lot more at -125. Overeem does want to play is patient counter game these days, and while Stipe is a good pressure fighter, I really see him working behind his jab in this one and forcing Overeem to come forward. I think this is a fight where both guys will look to counter, but Stipe's better jab and overall boxing give him the advantage on the outside. While Overeem's knees and clinch game give him the edge on the inside. But to get inside, he'll need to be the aggressor because Stipe has solid fight IQ and won't want to play into Overeem's gameplan.

At some point I think Overeem will start getting more aggressive if he's getting outworked on the outside, but I doen't see it happening early. Econoreem is here to stay.
 
mkess101 said:
^^I'm leaning Stipe too, but I think I like the o1.5 a lot more at -125. Overeem does want to play is patient counter game these days, and while Stipe is a good pressure fighter, I really see him working behind his jab in this one and forcing Overeem to come forward. I think this is a fight where both guys will look to counter, but Stipe's better jab and overall boxing give him the advantage on the outside. While Overeem's knees and clinch game give him the edge on the inside. But to get inside, he'll need to be the aggressor because Stipe has solid fight IQ and won't want to play into Overeem's gameplan.

At some point I think Overeem will start getting more aggressive if he's getting outworked on the outside, but I doen't see it happening early. Econoreem is here to stay.
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Agreed. That's how i see it playing out as well, im already on that over @ -119 from a while back. Also on Stipe @ -125 from a while ago but I regret that bet, the more I think about this fight the more i favor Overeem. I mean really, what advantages does Stipe have except a better chin? Overeem is the better kickboxer, controls range very well nowadays and also has a good offensive as well as defensive wrestling game.
 
I think theres much better spots on this card than betting on two big punching hw's personally.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I can see mccall being the dog and i think this is a hard fight for borg style wise.
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If either one is the dog I'd probably bet on them.


Also not sure if posted but Gall gave Gordon Ryan a tough match(comparatively) about a year ago. I believe heel hooks are illegal in Naga though but Gordon, even then, was a black belt level grappler.

Gordon Ryan right now is the latest rising star in the sub-grappling world at the moment. He's subbed Keenan in a sub only match, Yuri Simoes(Last ADCC Champ), and Rustam Chiev though the latter two were in OT EBI rules.
Also he subbed my one time BJJ coach Jacen Flynn in EBI.

CM punk by grappling or even sub is probably off the table as he was a white belt with little experience two years ago.


 
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Sham5916910 said:
I think theres much better spots on this card than betting on two big punching hw's personally.
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Idk man. Maybe, but a lot of these depend on lines. I can't play Tavares if hes more than -140ish. Same for Yancy. Same for Bethe. Same for McCall. Bookies determine a lot on this one for me, only person i'm sure i'll get a good line on is Jimmie Rivera
 
Tebowned said:
If either one is the dog I'd probably bet on them.


Also not sure if posted but Gall gave Gordon Ryan a tough match(comparatively) about a year ago. I believe heel hooks are illegal in Naga though but Gordon, even then, was a black belt level grappler.

Gordon Ryan right now is the latest rising star in the sub-grappling world at the moment. He's subbed Keenan in a sub only match, Yuri Simoes(Last ADCC Champ), and Rustam Chiev though the latter two were in OT EBI rules.

CM punk by grappling or even sub is probably off the table as he was a white belt with little experience two years ago.


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Punk has almost zero chance if this hits the mat. Literally he can land something standing that hurts Gall and that is his only chance.

I am extremely confident Gall stops him, either with gnp or by sub, and probably in rd 1.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Idk man. Maybe, but a lot of these depend on lines. I can't play Tavares if hes more than -140ish. Same for Yancy. Same for Bethe. Same for McCall. Bookies determine a lot on this one for me, only person i'm sure i'll get a good line on is Jimmie Rivera
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Im really hoping for evens on tavares
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im really hoping for evens on tavares
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It could happen, but gotta expect him to be a slight favorite in this one. Anything over -140 this becomes unplayable imo. Can't trust Tavares to not get caught by one of those winging bombs, and Caio clinch and ground game isn't bad at all.
 
Correa will be dog imo. Very low level.
 
lefontes said:
Correa will be dog imo. Very low level.
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Hope you're right. I thought Bethe was as bummy as PVZ until last fight, was actually fairly impressed with her improvements in the Raquel fight.

I'm 0-3 betting Eye fights, so this should be a pass for me, but i'll take Bethe all day if I can get plus money
 
Joseph Budden said:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/9/4...unk-submits-mickey-gall-with-guillotine-choke

Renzo Gracie disagrees
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LOL well he's certainly more than entitled to that opinion. The fact tha Punk was training with Renzo's cousins and that Renzo apparently knows and likes him makes me take Renzo's opinion with a grain of salt. I think that perhaps it's...not totally objective?

I've seen Gall in actual competition, both high level grappling (EXTREMELY high level) and in MMA. I've seen Brooks...in a few videos training? And he didn't really look super impressive even with them editing the vids to MAKE him look good?

Hey, maybe he proves me totally wrong and if so my BR takes a hit but it's a damn interesting story. But...I will put my $ on the guy I know can fight.
 
mkess101 said:
LOL well he's certainly more than entitled to that opinion. The fact tha Punk was training with Renzo's cousins and that Renzo apparently knows and likes him makes me take Renzo's opinion with a grain of salt. I think that perhaps it's...not totally objective?

I've seen Gall in actual competition, both high level grappling (EXTREMELY high level) and in MMA. I've seen Brooks...in a few videos training? And he didn't really look super impressive even with them editing the vids to MAKE him look good?

Hey, maybe he proves me totally wrong and if so my BR takes a hit but it's a damn interesting story. But...I will put my $ on the guy I know can fight.
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I can't lie, the cynic inside of me wants Punk to win, even with 30 whatever dollars on Gall by KO. I'm just in the same boat as iGnP, its crazy to me how many of you guys are looking at a few very low level Gall fights and Punk training footage from a year ago and unloading on Gall loll

Plus, Punk was the man in WWE :D
 
10-8 Gall
10-9 Punk
10-9 Punk


Draw



For real, though. I have some parlays ending in Gall from like 4 months ago, but I'm not really sure on the fight right now. I pretty much have Gall at evens right now, so I'll probably hedge with Punk.
 
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