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UFC 204 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Oct 8, 2016.

  1. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    This guy charges over $1,000 a year for access to his bets yet left the same bet in like 15 parlays
     
  2. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    He is the biggest fraud in the betting industry. Anyone know his real name?
     
  3. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Guy who owns Furys Fight Picks is Luca Fury. I think he actually went around -6u tonight because he bets 4 units on like -400 odds like MMABettingTips does and he went 2-2

    The handicapper that works for him is Sean Carey, who mostly just throws random parlays together

    If you wanted access to both of their bets you'd be paying $200+ dollars a month.
     
  4. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    FOTN: hendo-bisping
    POTN: manuwa & alcantara

    no issue w/any of the above.
     
  5. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    degens before ho's!
     
  6. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Every time a guy basically begs for the bonus because he's gotta eat or has a poor family etc etc (Bektic in this case) they never get it
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    maybe, but the right two guys got it.. alcantara put on one of the best performances of his career & manuwa's KO of OSP means more than bektic beating a 135'er on 5 days notice.. OSP hadn't been ko'd in like 10 years, including vs some of the elite of the elite
     
  8. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Welcome to the club. Hug me please
     
  9. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    I wasn't disagreeing, was just an interesting thing I've noticed
     
  10. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    [​IMG]
     
  11. bruthead Blue Belt

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    Just got home from the arena. Wasn't a great card but the main event made up for it and some. Fans getting value for money for attending Bisping's UK fights this year! Had money on Bisping but was hoping for a draw for Hendo. Would have live bet the draw if I had the chance, felt R1 should be 10-8.

    Was big (for a prop) on Grant R3 and Mouse R3, would have been like 20u up if either had hit but small profit on the event, not bad without being able to livebet, Santos dec and Bektic sub my best hits, Tumenov m/l my worst loss.
     
  12. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Interesting that you thought it wasn't a great card, I thought it was one of the best this year. 10/12 finishes with some great fights.
     
  13. NinoNorrland Banned Banned

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    So I wake up and check bet365 and they have corrected the over on OSP/Manuwa! Then I discover that my sweet parlay also included Grant. I'm an idiot...Bet it straight too though so it still changes my final results to +4,6u
     
  14. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Just watched this card. No action on main event for me but I agree with Barry. I had Rd 1 10-8, Rd 2 10-9 to Hendo. I also thought Hendo won Rd. 4 but I guess I'm crazy because Stann was talking like it went to Bisping clearly.
     
  15. cs02132 Green Belt

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    In retrospect I wish I actually paid attention to this card. I didn't even look at the odds until during the fights. There was definitely some money to be made on this card like Alcantara only being -150, struve-190, and bisping decision at +300. My only bet was Germany (soccer) + mousasi.

    How did everyone come out after these 8 straight events?
     
  16. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Fun event. Was hoping to continue my hot streak, but only won 0.08 units lol. I did great in draftkings and have been on a nice streak on the previous UFC events, so I'm actually pretty happy

    Grats winners. To the losers, keep your heads up
     
  17. t6p Brown Belt

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    Looking back my two biggest takeaways from this card:

    1) Platinum Perry eats head kicks for breakfast

    2) Einstein Tumenov may have the worst BJJ in the UFC
     
  18. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    Tip of the hat for the ability to eat crow, not everyone can do that. Congrats on turning your night around and coming out in the positive. It's only 1 fight and we all make mistakes.

    I never had an issue with someone taking tumenov. The problem was very little of the handicapping itt had an objective analysis of the grappling.

    I think your analysis is pretty one sided here.

    Edwards lost to 2 grinding wrestlers, silva who dropped down from 185 to 170, and Usman a world class wrestler who might be championship material. Most media scored the loss to Silva for edwards, and if you look at Mma decisions it was a weird situation where 2 of 3 judges gave him the 1st and 2nd, but all 3 said he lost the third so he lost the dec. He is the only person to take a round off Usman yet, that says a lot to me and is more impressive than losing to alcantara.

    When edwards has lost it is because of his ground game, which he has made huge improvements on. He switched his camp to AKA, for a few fights and his grappling really changed. I don't think he trained at AKA this time, can't find it on twitter, but he did train with Breese. Has tumenov focused on his grappling holes?

    I actually think edwards might be able win with his wrestling, he at this point has a grappling advantage imo. Tumenov was just exposed big time in the grappling. They are both high level strikers imo, edwards has more power and tumenov has more volume.

    Since we have a 3 week break maybe it is important to remember that this thread is most profitable for us all when:

    The role of people posting is to bring objective data to the thread.

    We all bring our information/data/opinions on data/lines/props to the table, then we can individually step back, look at all the information and make an informed individual choice of where the value lies.

    So many people get caught up thinking this thread is a place to tout one side, or show their bets for E-cred, instead of showing reasoning/capping.

    Personally I wish the event threads placed a priority on ego free professional/objective discussion of the data.
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Yep totally true. Think i possibly forced a play there. I posted originally that something felt off with taking tumenov and i was going to take bisping instead, but after watching tape on both i went into tunnel vision mode on tumenov. Disregarded edwards' grappling threat based on poor opposition (mistake) and overestimated tumenov's grappling based on it being gunnar who dominated him (mistake). Still, i dont think anyone thought tumenov's ground game was that bad! But yeah objectiveness is key. Good call.
     
  20. null Gold Belt

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    I parlayed Tumenov up big time for exactly the latter reason. I figured, sure Einstein got dominated on the ground by Gunnar, but hey that's Gunnar and his advanced grappling abilities. I figured he'd be good enough to not get wrestled and submitted by a mid-tier British welterweight. Cost me dearly.
     

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