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UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 29, 2016.

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  1. quincy k Brown Belt

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    when did brick top say it was a fact?

    the way i read his post it appeared to be his opinion.

    the same opinion that i have as well
     
  2. Dathorn Brown Belt

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    Right there. When he said he's just stating facts. He isnt just stating facts. Like you said, he is saying his opinion. Thanks for backing me up quincy.
     
  3. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Didn't say that. I implied he was washed up going into the Woodley fight. Too much damage taken in a short period of time, everyone knew the rapid decline was coming

    The facts I'm talking about are Woodley only having wrestling and a right overhand, and that he's only KO'd a damaged Lawler and Koscheck.
     
  4. RyuDave Green Belt

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    For what it's worth I think robbies best days are now behind him too, shame as I do like to see him fight but I do think it's downhill from here for him
     
  5. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    just plugged a bet in on romero +165. and i feel dirty about it. it's a damned close fight. can't let personal bias dictate too much here (hate romero & his cheating, hehe, and rooting for weidman in ny, etc). hope to be able to live bet weidman during the fight, anyway.
     
  6. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    What up my ninjas I know I haven't been here for a minutes so for bit of a contribution I broke down the three title fights and gave my opinion on the others. I'm going to try to read through here and get a feel of where you guys are at...HYG:

    Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
    MMA
    With all due respect to the Seth Baczynski, the real "Polish Pistola" will be crowned the UFC strawweight champion tonight.

    There is sure to be fireworks tonight when twin Polish snipers Jedrzejczyk and Kowalkiewicz face-off against one another. While both females are known for their pugilistic prowess, in 2012, the ladies fought in an amateur bout which saw the champion sink in a fight ending RNC over the challenger to get the win. Make no mistake, neither fighter has forgotten about the other fand there will be a massive amount of pride on the line tonight when they kick off the first ever UFC title fight in New York City.

    Four years after their first meeting, the stakes are much higher and both are in their prime. The champion Jedrzejczyk is now the UFC women’s strawweight queenpin with an unblemished 12-0 record. Coming off a brilliant performance over her nemesis Claudia Gadelha to wrap up the TUF finale, Jedrzejczyk is now searching to put her name in the history books as one of the best ever to step in the Octagon. Owner of what may possibly be the cleanest striking in all of MMA today, Jedrzejczyk is a true artist in every way. Specifically, her Muay-Thai handiwork is a thing of beauty. The slender Pole can fight from any range as she will light her a opponent up from the fringe with rapier-esque jabs and stinging crosses and/or maul them in the clinch with stabbing knees and slicing elbows. What's more, Jedrzejczyk's cardio is top shelf and her TDD has become nearly impenetrable. Incredibly, all of this might be better this time given that she has made the move to Coconut Creek to work with the crew at ATT where she trains daily under wrestling coach Mike Brown and UFC bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. Indeed, her game is only going to get better. A very scary thought.

    In the other corner, Kowalkiewicz is an expert marksman as well who can maintain a blistering pace for 25 minutes if necessary. Somehow the challenger is going to need to look for a way to negate the aggression that Joanna is going to bring to bear. The problem with Kowalkiewicz is that she doesn't have the requisite grappling ability that needed to disrupt the voluminous pressure of the champion. Therefore, she is going to be forced into a prolonged kickboxing match and hope that she can somehow match the champion blow-for-blow without wilting under the pressure.

    Honestly, everything Karolina can do Joanna can do too, but better. I really don't see a route to victory for the challenger here and see Jedrzejczyk piecing up yet another contender of which she is rapidly running out of.

    Jedrzejczyk by late stoppage or clean 50-45's across the board. The champion makes good parlay fodder and the over 4.5 is a good parlay fodder. May also put a flier on JoAnna wins in round four and five.


    Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez:

    There are a number of questions to factor in the collation when breaking down the main event. Specifically how will Eddie Alvarez's chin hold up and can Conor remain vertical and have enough gas in the tank to go the full five rounds if it ends up a dogfight. We know for I 100% fact that Alvarez can go 25 minutes without breaking a sweat but what we don't know is if he can take McGregors left-hand flush to the temple. These are questions we need to answer.

    Throughout his long arduous mixed martial arts career we have seen Alvarez and several wars. Fighting all across the globe in every organization not named UFC, Alvarez made a name for himself by being the consummate blood and guts warrior that harken back to the best days of boxing nostalgia. While we haven't seen Alvarez lane on the map blowing bubbles, he has taken my time of damage and is extremely vulnerable to being cracked. In fact, his fights in his appearance in the dream lightweight tournament he took so much damage from Tatsuya Kawajiri that he was unable to continue into the next round. That's important to know because Kawajiri is not someone that normally causes a lot of damage on the feet with his boxing. We've also seen Eddie in wars with Michael Chandler, Joaquim Hansen and Donald Cerrone over the years. At some point, that chin is going to go.

    While McGregor was taken down multiple times by Chad Mendes and slowed down considerably, he did enter the fight with a severely injured knee. Meanwhile, his fights with Nate Diaz showed him gassing exponentially after the second frame which have led many people to hypothesize that McGregor doesn't have good cardio. While I am a bit skeptical as to how good it is, I do believe that is conditioning troubles are being a bit overblown. Not making excuses for the aforementioned contests, but merely rational explanations. What's more, if you go back and watch McGregor in the Holloway fight, the Irishman put out a heavy pace in rounds one and two and yet was still dominant in the final stanza despite having shredded his knee.

    Ultimately this fight is going to come down to whether or not Eddie Alvarez can implement his game on McGregor and force him into a war of attrition. By that I mean do use is versatile skill set to its maximum potential where he strikes when McGregor thinks he's going to wrestle and wrestle when McGregor thinks he's going to strike. Basically, Alvarez needs to utilize the similar tactic he used to best of Anthony Pettis. Having said that, I don't believe that he's going to have success doing so. McGregor is extremely unique in his is striking and he uses brilliant kicks coupled with laser-beam accurate punches from strange angles to hit the target. Moreover, these aren't your typical point sparring karate strikes, but rather soul crushing power delivered in devastating fashion. Especially when he makes contact with that left hand.

    Alvarez is wont to get into slug fests with his foe and I think that is great for McGregor who is all to eager to oblige him in such manner. What's more, since bringing in BJJ prodigy Dillon Danis to prepare for Diaz, we've seen Conor's TDD markedly improve. In short, Conor will enjoy a height and reach advantage, and his power, precision and speed will make the difference on the feet. I think Conor keeps it upright and starches Eddie late in the opening round.

    Two division world champion.

    Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

    A karate stylist vs. a devastatingly successful NCAA D1 wrestling champ. Did someone get into Doc Brown's DeLorean and travel back to 1993 to the UFC's bygone era of discipline versus discipline? In what is a throwback to the UFC of yore, we have a classic striker versus grappler battle on our hands. But don't get it twisted, these two are a long way from the one dimensional skills of a Gerard Gordeau vs. Dan Severn styled match up. These two are the apex predators of their respective disciplines with a wealth of talent in all pertinent disciplines to compliment their high level of athleticism.

    A dynamic wrestler-boxer with sledgehammer's for hands, “The Chosen One” has has ruled all three straight victories including six of his last seven in route to capturing UFC gold. Meanwhile, the 33-year-old karate styled juggernaut Thompson has been collecting scalps himself as he has ran roughshod over everyone placed in front of himduring the last four years.

    Let's get to it. Essentially, this boy is like stylistic nightmare for Woodbury. The trouble the champion had with Rory MacDonald is a harbinger of what we should expect tonight.. In Wonderboy you have a a tall, slick and sneaky striking specialist who moves in and out like a snake throwing punches, kicks, knees and elbows from the weirdest possible angles. Quite simply, there is nobody out there you can bring him to prepare for a fighter the caliber of Wonderboy. Least of which is Sage Northcutt LOL

    Had this fight taken place three years ago when Wonderboy was getting his feet wet in the mixed martial arts game, I believe that Woodley's top shelf wrestling would be enough to continuously place the striking ace on his back en route to a decision or submission victory. Unfortunately for Woodley however, Thompson has shored up is takedown defense and that major vulnerability is no longer a gap in his armor. In fact, after being taken down quite effortlessly and subsequently pummeled by Matt Brown in 2012, Wonderboy linked up with the Serra/Longo fight camp where he has used Chris Weidman as his main sparring partner. The fruits of his labor have been absolutely remarkable given that Thompson hasn't given up a single takedown in his last seven outings.

    The champ isn't nearly as versatile in the striking department as his opponent is, but Tyron uses exceptional speed and explosiveness to quickly cover ground and enter the pocket. Woodley hasn’t needed to call upon his wrestling for quite some time as he has used it in reverse to stay upright and land his skull crushing power bombs he calls punches. However, on this occasion I believe it is pertinent that the champ try to bring Thompson to the mat as quickly as possible and wear his limbs out, fill them up with lactic acid and take away some of the spring in his step. However, I don't see T-Wood having success getting in on the longer Thompson as Wonderboy will use his long jab and front kicks to keep Woodley at bay as he did against Hendricks. From the outside I expect Wonderboy to light Woodley up like a Christmas tree with sniper like precision with strikes coming from myriad angles.

    The speed and power from T-Wood come at a price as the heavily muscled champion is known to fade rather precipitously as he puts maximum power in everything he does. If he is unable to get the TKO early it may end up where Woodley is sheer target practice for the karateka to tee off on in the championship rounds.

    Basically I see this playing out very similar to how MacDonald vs. Woodley played out though I anticipate Wonderboy landing cleaner, crisper, more powerful shots along the way. At some point I see a desperate and confused Woodley overcommitting to land something where he ends up running into a wood-chipper.

    And new.....

    Romero vs. Weidman:
    The Cuban is a wrestling savant and is possibly the most explosive fighter in the game. If Weidman isn't able to get it to the third round where he can take control over a gassed Romero, I see the former champion having a lot of trouble. The way Romero was able to flick Tim Kennedy and Jacare off of him like they were annoying insects made me take notice. I believe Romero can crack Weidman and get the TKO or even win a decision. Weidman in r3 is a worthy prop bet however.

    Pennington vs Tate:
    Much closer fight than people think. Rocky is always a tough out. However, Pennington is often too apathetic and her lack of volume can come back to bite her in the ass. I believe this fight is up for grabs but Tate will probably prevail based on experience and that veteran toughness. I do like the over 2.5 for parlays however.

    Edgar vs. Stephens:
    So Frankie is getting a bit long in the tooth and has taken loads of damage throughout his years. However, at 35 years old he still fighting at a very high-level and only loses to the cream of the crop. He recently slept Chad Mendes, dominated Cub Swanson and BJ Penn while owning Urijah Faber. Frankie hasn't fallen off much and Jeremy Stephens isn't the type of fighter he loses to. Still, Jeremy has a ton of power and Frankie is going to half to mind his P's and Q's, but unless Jeremy can catch an unmotivated Frankie who doesn't believe he have anything to fight for here, I see "The Answer" running roughshod over "Lil' Heathen" for a clear decision or late stoppage.

    Johnson vs. Nurmagomedov :
    Talk about a hit and miss fighter. In May and October you have MJ stifling the dangerous Tony Ferguson and bodying the always game Danny Castillo. Then in April and December you are getting dragged around like a ragdoll by "Handbags" Maddadi and Myles Jury respectively in humiliating losses. That was within a calendar year. However, since then MJ has seemingly righted the ship with the help of striking coach Henri Hooft and wrestling coaches Kenny Monday and now Greg Jones. When Johnson is right between the ears he is as dangerous as they come. A dynamic athlete with rapid fire striking combinations and an excellent sprawl to stay vertical. However, he can lose himself in a fight as he did when Diaz tricked him into a slugfest showing that he still needs some work with that fight IQ.

    Nurmagomedov is an absolute animal and quite possibly the uncrowned champion of the 155 pounds division. The thing is, how is his body holding up. All of that wrestling has him basically duct tape together at this point and who knows what he has left ATP in his career. Training at AKA gives you good sparring partners and coaches, but the gym is known for high paced training wars and injured fighters from Cain Velasquez to Mike Swick and now Nurmy. Still yet, if Nurmy is at 75 to 85% of the fighter he was before the injuries to his knees, there is not many a fighter in the UFC 155 pounds division that is going to stop him. His striking is a bit reckless but he uses it basically as a smokescreen to get any tie on his opponent so that he can get his mitts on them and start launching them through the air. Look no further than his fights with RDA and able Trujillo to see just how much a beast this kid is if he gets a hold of you.

    I believe that Michael Johnson has a much better shot than most people are giving him just because of the ring rust that Nurmy has sustained combined with the fact that he often enters recklessly in the pocket which leaves his chin exposed and ripe for a quick uppercut. Nevertheless, I think Nurmagomedov gets inside of MJ's punches where he will initiate a clinch and take MJ to Sambo class. Anticipating a worn out frustrated Johnson after about 7 minutes of action. Nurmagomedov activates beast mode to ragdoll MJ and get his long awaited title shot

    Boetsch vs. Natal : Natal too fast and more technical. Tim on the decline.

    Luque vs. Muhammad : Luque finds a home for a right-hook and finishes RTN.

    Alves vs. Miller : Bigger Thiggy thwarts TD's and busts Jim up. Maybe TKO r2

    Carmouche vs. Chookagian:

    Going with the younger and more technical fighter in Choo-Choo-Chookagian for a SD win.
     
  7. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Glad to see that you are with me here EZ

    ...win money for "Gay Jesus"
     
  8. HistoryMade Dreamed it Banned

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    This year has been crazy guys. The amount of challenges dethroning the champs in round 1 has been unprecedented.
     
  9. null Gold Belt

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    Hey stranger, I'm big on Romero too, although on the opposite side of some of your other picks. Cross your fingers for tonight, your beloved Bookmaker live betting came back last week after a long time and you were nowhere to be found. Some of us cleaned up with it on the Mexico City card!
     
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    MJ Fastest KO: +1750
     
  11. I'm don't give a fook about bankroll management tonight. If I'm doing well in the prelims I will immediately invest my winnings in Wonderboy, Romero and Mcgregor.
     
  12. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    What is the consensus on Nurmy and Mohamed?
     
  13. quincy k Brown Belt

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    well it is a fact that robbie lawler is, as brick top stated, "an aging competitor coming off multiple brutal wars"

    like i mentioned, iirc, robbie lawler has absorbed over 500 head punches in the last three years( i believe that this was claimed a year ago and starting after the first mcdonald fight).

    that could be a record if true and if so a prime example of a fighter that could be washed up
     
  14. null Gold Belt

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    i was super impressed by MJ's speed and precision punches vs Poirier last time. Already on the Fastest KO prop and big on Johnson ML, Johnson round 1 & KO props and +3½ point spread, plus Nurmy dec hedge. Hopefully Nurmy leaves with the same hood over his head he walks in with.
     
  15. cagebrain Purple Belt

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    Mohammed is split. some on him some on Luque.

    Almost no one is on Nurmy at his odds. Everyone is on MJ ml, KO, and +3.5. Maybe a bit on Nurmy DEC hedge.
     
  16. SBJJ Steel Belt

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  17. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Also have Johnson, Miller, Romero & Mcgoat to smaller extents
     
  18. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    I know it was there last week but do you know if it's for sure tonight?
     
  19. cagebrain Purple Belt

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  20. Bless Orange Belt

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    I can only put €5.78 on it...
     
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