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UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 29, 2016.

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  1. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    What up JG my ninja! Glad to see you and talk to homies ITT ... I know it's been a minute. Regarding bookmaker live betting, I hope to God it's up and I caught it last week too LOL normally I don't even check "anymore but for some reason I did & there it was. Absolutely smashed it. My biggest play was Diego Sanchez as I got him at plus money deep into the second round, I couldn't believe it. I already had him straight up before the fight started and then I smashed it with him on it live. Who are you against me at one?
     
  2. null Gold Belt

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    I killed it on Diego over Held pre-fight and got him at + money live as well. My biggest plays of the last card. Contrary to you I'm on Miller and Belal tonight. If Alves has trouble making the check weight as I am hearing he could be in trouble here.
     
  3. RyuDave Green Belt

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    So he I'm guessing he's got to try cut the remainder 1-2lb still? That's going to be rough before you walk out to fight
     
  4. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    At -147 I believe he is a good piece for a parlay, potentially with Frankie Edgar. But I also think that it's worth putting something small on him via submission at +675 which was where it was that the last time I saw it..oh I will probably put 0.5 units on that. I cap Rafael Natal at around -220.
     
  5. Blond Purple Belt

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    I'm thinking of betting on mma for the first time. I'm considering an Edgar-Khabib-Wonderboy parlay. Curious to hear your opinion?
     
  6. RyuDave Green Belt

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    Belal is currently +110 dog now might put 1u down and also belal Miller double pays +450 so .5 on that
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    With you on most, but think Belal is a big step up for Luque. Like Belal dec here. Think Boetch is a live dog but biggest bet there is NOT Natal itd. Natal finishing would shock me. Tim looked in good shape too. I think Miller has a good shot too. Not sure where Alves mind is at. Wouldn't shock me if Alves wins but at dog odds like Miller.

    Frankie/Stephens goes distance -180. You gotta like that right? Neither guy has been KO/TKO'd in like 7 years.

    Glad you stopped by homie, good to hear from you!
     
  8. RyuDave Green Belt

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    Depends how much you're risking, what ever it is though be prepared to loose it.

    As for the play, it's not bad id worry over Eagle and frankie though.

    Maybe play them as singles and then a smaller parlay of the three..
     
  9. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Oh I flipped back and forth about 15 times between Mohammed and Vincent slow slow you could be on the right track. Basically, I believe but if Mohammed gets out of the first 1.5 rounds, it is his flight to lose. However, he gets here I want and doesn't have much power himself. Conversely Luque is an absolute sniper and lands laser guided missiles on the roads. I love the way that kid fights and he's only getting better at age 24. But Mohammed is absolutely awesome and his own ride so it could be either guys fight. If Mohammed utilize this is wrestling then I do believe you will win.

    Regarding Alves, I didn't know that they have a check weigh in...What is it? 165 pounds? If he makes it into the fight. I believe that he'll be able to stay upright and put his hands on Miller possibly scoring a knockout. That said, I will put
    a play on Miller round three.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Lotta juice to pay on Khabib here, most of us like MJ at these odds. Not telling you what to do at all. Khabib has a very clear path to victory of course. But man if he struggles at all to get TD's...
     
  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    it might hit but long term, that strategy is square
     
  12. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Again, you make sense as usual with all of your rebuttals and I can see it either way. I just think for Timmy is a bit long in the tooth and is on a serious decline. It wasn't too many fights ago where he was struggling against mediocre fighters like Nick Ring + Ed Herman. Before getting the knockout over Josh Samman he had lost three in a row and four of his last five with the only win in between being against Brad Tavares which was a fight he was losing. Tim could theoretically be 2-8 over his last 10 contest. Plus it is not like he was just losing but he has been getting hit a lot and I believe that his chin may be shot.


    Frankie/Stephens goes distance -180. Yep...but I would like Frankie by decision the best.
     
  13. Blond Purple Belt

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    Can you elaborate?
     
  14. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    No problem brother but that was some sloppy shit thrown together at the last minute. I'll try to stay up to date with you guys a bit more and contribute. Reading through the thread I still see that this is the number 1 pound for pound betting thread on the net.

    BOL tonight!
     
  15. The exact same thing happened to me. Usually BetDSI doesn't have livebetting, but I checked that last week during that event and it was up amazingly. After r1 Diego was still +190, I pounded that line and came up big thanks to it, despite losing my bet on RDA.
     
  16. cagebrain Purple Belt

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    everyone bets those top of the card moneylines. So its not as likely to have value. ITT we discuss a lot of prop lines, plus/minus points, NSC's, over/unders, etc. because less people bet them so they can have more value

    for instance, im personally taking edgar/stephens goes to decision, WB moneyline and unanimous decision, and im not betting khabib, i took MJ +3.5 and KO prop. Consensus on Khabib here is his price is too steep, most of us are on MJ, with some hedging a bit on Khabib decision.
     
  17. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    I'm in for

    Khabib
    Wb
    Jj
    Conor

    parlay

    100-325

    Look what Myles jury did to khabib

    Wonderboy is goat

    Jj via violence

    Conor via boxing
     
  18. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    They should have just tossed Thiago and Kelvin out the door and put Miller and Cowboy in there at 165 or 168 catchweight.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I think he means just parlaying big favorites isn't a good long term strategy. And he's right generally speaking. I'm not anti-parlay, but just picking three big favorites to parlay is a recipe for losing long-term (not saying you did that here necessarily).

    Personally I agree to start out you'd be better off betting them as singles. And looking for value in underdogs too. I wouldn't argue with a Frankie+Wonderboy parlay at all personally, but again that's just me.
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Miller had a good rd 1 against Cowboy last time, so there's that...

    But yeah with the current versions of both guys...good God RIP Jim Miller. I like the guy, I'm okay with not seeing him bludgeoned by Cowboy again.
     
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