Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 3, 2016.
i think that line is off. i'm playing swanson if he hits +200.
i don't mind cowboy as a parlay piece, think it's a bad matchup for brown.
cowboy via sub wouldn't surprise me.
Nice, I'm UK based too. Didn't realise anywhere had lines out yet, had checked PP/365/BV but not any others. I just had a look and for most of the card they're about what I was expecting, give or take .10 or so. I dunno if the Cirkunov line will get any better (I doubt it), have a feeling Vannata will get bet at those odds based off of his Ferguson performance, hopefully get Makdessi at good dog odds come fight night.
So based off released lines and prop price assumptions based on them, heres what I see myself playing
Holloway -5.5 and unan dec
Cerrone by KO
Either Choi round 1 or Cub dec or both. Maybe even Choi dec? Idk, how tf is Choi -240 right now......
I will literally be on all the same guys. The only hesitation I have is Kelvin dec. I'll probably play it, but will probably go safer and play the o2.5 or fight goes distance bigger. It's hard for me to envision either guy stopping the other, -185 for o2.5 is actually a great price imo.
Cowboy is gonna murk Brown. I might play his itd though, he could easily hurt Brown and decide to lock up a sub to finish instead of pounding him out. Maybe 3/4 of my bet on itd and 1/4 on the KO or something.
Holloway 100% agree. Same bets.
Cub being overlooked...again.
I'll be on o2.5 too, but amazing value on Kelvin dec above +200 which looks likely
I figure KO will be much more juicy. I'll say itd is +120ish and KO +250ish so worth the risk when I favor a striking match here
Yeah don't wanna play Cub cause I <3 DHC, but if his decision line is like +700 I will be all over it
Yeah at +200 or better agree Kelvin dec is a must play. Esp factoring in Kennedy ring rust.
Mein lay off a clear concern but at -117 and his opponent coming in clean im loving mein here
Zack and Ortiz both safety point decision fighters, expecting the overs and decision props to be hammered.
Interesting both are coming off 2 losses each, so could be fighting for their ufc job here.
Yeah I said before the o2.5, fight goes distance, and dec props will all be juiced huge. And still probably worth it LOL.
Man the more I look, the more I can't find a way that Brown beats Cowboy. Brown is a grinder, a guy who weathers storms and breaks guys wills with grit. Good all around skills, but not dynamic in any one area. Cowboy eats guys like that for lunch. I'm trying to find ONE area where Brown is better and I can't.
Cardio: Even I guess? Neither guy looks like they slow down at all.
Looks like I will be loading up on Cowboy ML, -3.5, itd. Cowboy's losses have been to guys with more dynamic offensive arsenals. Brown doesn't have one.
i hate all the odds talk for the fights we don't have odds on yet, wahhhh
Im looking for fodder for bb and forgot to even look at this card. Cowboy + bb sounds good
Wow brown lost 4 of last 5 and even his win against means was dicey i remember means was getting the better until he got caught. Brown on decline?
Agree about Cowboy ITD. KO/sub seems like a coinflip. I played U2.5 +100.
THIS! Everyone please stfu
Possibly. But even if no decline he has always been an over achiever rather than a high level WW imo. Even in his best wins (Silva and Mein, maybe young WB) he was getting lit up
Yeah all threw were blasting him. Only thing with doubling bb with cowboy is my whole weekend will hinge on the last two fights at 206 should bb win
You really like BB that much? Feels like there are def better ways to play that fight especially when parlay fodder lines like o2.5 Mak/Ortiz still have to be released
Yeah i rate him and i dont really rate shamil. Bb has great cardio for a hw, hits so hard even nelson wanted nothing to do with the standup and while his tdd sucks his get ups are insane even tho theres little technique! I dont think shamil has barely attempted a takedown in the ufc tho. He has no power for a hw and i just dont think hes going to like what bb is packing.
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