Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 3, 2016.
lando wouldn't quit if his jaw was broken
Thank EZ, Mulder and others weighing in on this.
Here's my quandary.. after a bit more tape watching and the fact that Khabilov missed weight, I started getting a bit nervous on my play. That said, the middling here on a Saggo hedge is not something that is inherently pernicious given that he isn't going to knock Khabilov out and because of his inflated submission prop a +1092 I could put a half of unit on it for a great return. I'm going to make a small hedge on Saggo and then let it ride from there.
To me this fight breaks down like this:
Khabilov DEC 45%
Saggo DEC 32%
Saggo SUB 8%
Khabilov KO 8%
Khabilov SUB 5%
Saggo KO 2%
We. Shall. See.
Regardless I like saggo SUB +1092
MMA - UFC - DEC 11
UFC 206: HOLLOWAY VS PETTIS AIR CANADA CENTRE @ TORONTO, ONTARIO, CANADA
*** FOR FIGHT PROPS PLEASE CALL, CALL CENTER ***
WTF? they been getting smoked on props? why would they do this, you can't even see the lines now online
why am i allowed to post complimentary posts about vanessa hanson and carly baker but not roxanne modaferri?
i like nerdy girls
I haven't been watching fights for about a year and a half, except for the past month where I've gotten back into it. I have caught most main events and Co mains. But i have tried to keep my opinions to myself since thats a long time in the fight game. But since kennedy hasnt fought in longer than I haven't been watching I feel ok with putting it out there. To be fair, i have not kept up on gastelum 100%. I caught his magny loss and hendricks win, but just half watched the fights with some friends. I wasn't studying it by any means.
I would also say that I dislike Kennedy as a persona. He is annoying and whiny to me. But I have always thought he looked excellent from a fighting skill stand point. I have always pictured him in the top 5 and if he returns to form then I think he still is. Gas could certainly win, but I think kennedy controls the fight. I think Kennedy's most likely way to defeat is if he goes low fight IQ and chooses to stand the whole time. If he chooses to grapple then I think kennedy has the advantage.
I like Kennedy at -140 and I love Kennedy Dec at +205.
Also, we have no clue how long such a long lay off will a fighter. Kennedy is now 37. So i could be waaaaaaay of and he might show up get smashed and retire.
Kennedy looked in good shape and totally jacked, kelvin appeared to be his son during the weigh ins.
Kelvins not been stopped yet so I think kennedy could easily get a decision here if he edges r1, takes r2 off for a bigger r3, but that is just a theory for now.
So done with Bookmaker
that would be the roids.
I'm actually leaning kennedy
Funny thing about Kennedy. As jacked as he gets. No matter if he flexes or screams. The dude just doesn't seem intimidating. He's like a big puffed up Nicholas cage.
weber meek seems to have chin issues and guess what who hits hard? ko'd twice in local scene and not many fights under his wing. people going crazy because he koed old stiff as a board palhares. Mein all fucking day here. won't be close fight.
I was touting Pettis NSC earlier in this thread as a line that I'd potentially go big on at the right odds. After all that's happened with the missing weight, weird excuses for losses, etc. I'm not nearly as confident. Still at +165 I think there's some really good value. Am I crazy or is this line off? Terminator level RDA couldn't stop Pettis, do we really think Max has anything more than an outside shot of doing it?
he needs to lose his shtick of being a badass army man, he just looks like a doofus
"come get my isis, i'm not scared of you here's my address" what so you can shit yourself and complain to the police and get shot like you shit yourself and complained to the ref against romero then got KTFO?
Oh I don't think Makdessi stops Vanetta unless Vanetta really gasses again. But as I said I think that happening in his last fight had a lot to do with him taking it on short notice and from Ferg hitting him so much in rd 1. That said, Vanetta seems like the kind of guy to go all out so gassing is possible. Everyone talking about Vanetta's angles...he stood in front of Ferg a LOT even in the first round of that fight. Ferg's jab was just hammering him. He angled off at times and mounted good offense by doing so, but he also stood flat footed at times too and got tagged. And I'm talking early in the fight, BEFORE he gassed.
But I definitely think Makdessi can outpoint Vanetta and win a decision. Like you said, esp in Canada where he could potentially get the nod in really close rounds.
Maybe Vanetta itd/Makessi dec here...or I do like EZ's o2.5 too I think.
Sounds good, also max wants ufc gold even if it is fake for now I think he will coast a bit and do just enough against the former champ to edge a decision here.
i'm having reservations, pettis was really slowing down against oliveira, i think max might be able to get him in 4/5, honestly do. i have a small play on not max ITD, too, so i'm not loving that lol
LOL well he's actually a legit badass when it comes to that world (military missions). That guy probably isn't complaining to the cops, he's shooting poeple. Fairly certain he already has confirmed kills in combat.
*Kelvin still wins tonight, hopefully by dec LOL
Well, I haven't had $40 K for a couple of years now, but still rocking the five digit account so it's not that $250 is a major loss. Nevertheless, $6500 is nothing to sneeze at LOL but seriously, thanks for the well thought out analysis and advice. Very concise and informative.
Damn O lol, you still makos those "couch cushion found change" bets you were making in '09 huh? Still just gambling' to pay the dues membership at the club while snatching up the occasional polo from the pro shop?
Based on your percents; You have Khabilov to win as 58%.. I'm on Khabilov to win here at like -190.. So I think he has some value.. I'm not sure what your unit size is but;; to win $6k, with Khabilov and Cowboy wins.. I think I'd consider hedging more on Saggo maybe, if you are only capping him at 58%... You can hedge at +170, so there's not a huge difference between your % capped and the odds you get on a hedge.. In fact;; The difference is basically bookie's juice, so your not displaying a large amount of confidence in Khabilov..
Personally;; the Cowboy fight scares me more than this fight.. I would definetley hedge on that one.. Matt Brown is game and a finisher, and I would almost never trust cowboy around -280 or so.. I think +240 is a great hedge on Brown since he is very capable of finishing Cowboy.. If RDA can finish him early, certainly Brown can.. Brown also had a pretty good fight vs. Robbie a while ago too. I just wouldn't trust Cerrone vs. someone that could finish him, as Cerrone has many times where he's not the smartest fighter, especially when someone is pressuring him.
If you win $6k if they both win.. If I was in this situation.. I think I would hedge as follows:
-$300-$500 at +170 on Khabilov dependent on your confidence.. (I'm on Khabilov here, I'd hedge around $400 probably)
-$1000-$2000 on Matt Brown at +230 .. (I'd probably go around $1500 here. wins around $3450,)
This way you make like $3k regardless of Brown-Cerrone fight if it gets there.. and make like over $500 if Khabilov loses.. (obviously wait for after Khabilov fight to bet Brown)..
nah he probably made all that up
if he was a legit badass he wouldn't have tried to cheat in the yoel fight then complain when he cheated back then cried to the ref
Separate names with a comma.