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UFC 206 - Pettis vs Holloway - Toronto

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 3, 2016.

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  1. weedreference Green Belt

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    Sorry, realized my original post was the wrong thread and changed my post, so I'm moving the discussion back to the right one. Anyway....

    I don't see how you can say that Brown isn't dynamic on the feet. He has leg kicks, head kicks, body kicks, power in both hands to go with solid punching technique, excellent knees, every elbow (including the under-used straight elbows) in his arsenal, awesome sweeps from the clinch... whereas Story is a straight brawler with only hands, and not technically sound hands at that (Brown, as Bruce Buffer says when he announces him, is a technical brawler). What Brown doesn't have is dynamic movement, but neither do Diaz and RDA. Forward is the best direction to go against Cerrone.

    That said, with all this going forward I'm very concerned about the grappling.
     
  2. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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  3. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I think Max ML might be the biggest bet of the year for me (the biggest one so far was Diaz ITD in the rematch so be aware). I just dont see Pettis being able to handle his pace and forward movement, just as he struggled with everyone who doesnt let him play a fancy kicking game on the outside. Pettis has been figured out and is clearly not able to adjust into a style that wins rounds or gets urgent when he is losing. He keeps relying on getting that big power move to get a win and outside a hail mary sub from the bottom I just dont see it happening. He didnt look good against Oliveira, wasn't he on the verge of losing 29-28 before getting the sub? And I just feel Max is a worse fit than Oliveira. The weight cut isnt going to help him in the later rounds as he was clearly gassing last time, so I love Max here.

    Might add a unit or two on the dec line as well.
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Pettis is clearly having cardio issues for whatever reason. I remember i bet him against Melendez and was really worried by r2 as he seemed to be blowing out of his arse. He was also blowing hard against Olives and was on his way to losing until he pulled the guillotine out. I honestly think we have seen the best of Pettis. Max has better hands and i see him taking a decision here. Pettis has a dangerous body/high kick that Max needs to be mindful of, but outside of that i don't see how Pettis wins. Pettis has a horrible habit that he is not going to get out of of backing up against the cage and getting stuck there. I see Max on the front foot controlling the octagon and out landing Pettis especially as Pettis tires.
     
  5. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    got Dober at +220 woooot!!!
    now its +195.

    I do like Vannata a lot. I think he has these crazy angles and overall good standup. Makdessi is too stationary. I see Lando outstriking him to a 30-27 decision. Makdessis best wins are Shane Cambell and Daron Cruickshank (both cut)

    Also I think rustam is the biggest LOCK on this card. I don't see Saggo beating him. Rustam should be fighting much better competition by now.
     
  6. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Krylov -133
    Misha +108

    Vannata -117
    Makdessi +105
     
  7. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I don't see Khabilov as a lock at all. I bet on him for his last fight and he arguably lost that fight. His stand up looked trash and he struggled for takedowns. They are both coming off fighting the same opponent and i know mma math doesn't work but Saggo looked better than Khabilov did. He's only lost to Felder and that could have gone either way. I tried to bet Saggo @ +195 but was limited to peanuts. Khabilov loves a close fight and his fight with Saggo will be no different. He was on his way to losing a decision to Parke until he snatched his back with half of r3 to go. The only value plays i see are Saggo ml, Saggo dec, Khab dec and over. I wouldn't touch Khabilov @ -300 with a 10 foot barge pole.

    With you on Dober tho.
     
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I've already bet Dober @ +220 but i forgot about his last fight. I know the guy is probably trash but his stand up looked really sharp and OAM has no stand up. Dober has solid wrestling too if OAM can't get him down hes getting pieced up.
     
  9. michi972 Purple Belt

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    Played Mein, I see a big value there!
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    RDA and Pettis both have a ton more speed than Brown. When I say dynamic striking I'm including that variable too. Brown has VARIED striking sure, but he has below average speed at WW. The Cerrone that fought Nate was a head case. He was wrecking Nate's legs with leg kicks (like RDA did) but then stopped throwing them. And would go to the mat because of some stupid "agreement" they had to keep it a standup fight. Cerrone chose to have a boxing match with Nate, which is just stupid.

    Brown has been rocked and wobbled multiple times due to his style of coming right at guys. Cerrone has shown that good liver shots hurt him, but he has a granite chin. I think if Brown moves straight at Cerrone (and I think he will) he's gonna get lit up. Is there a chance he finds Cerrone's liver with a kick or something? Sure. But it's a really small chance imo. Or, as you said, Cerrone will time a TD and put Brown on his back which is an awful place to be with Cowboy.
     
  11. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Agree with all points. Khabilovs price has improved a bit tho. -225 at betsafe atm.
     
  12. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    14 media outlets had it 29-28 Khabilov
    2 had it draw
    0 media thought Silva won that fight
     
  13. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Found a new great channel for predictions. Very well made videos

     
  14. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I think Cerrone will work Brown, but an interesting thing that a couple opponents have said about Brown is that he can cover range so well. They will think they are out of range and he next thing they know he's all over them. It's strange because like you said, he's not exactly fast. I think he just uses his length well and really commits when coming in.
     
  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    either way itwas close as fuck. i had a lot of money on khab and i was bricking myself. he would get a takedown and do nothing with it he looked terrible.
     
  16. OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    Liking cub here small. Korean super boy is overrated
     
  17. piglord Black Belt

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    i can see it 60/40 in favour of choi but that line is crazy. i have to play cub.
     
  18. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    This is a big step up for Choi. No way id bet him at -250.
     
  19. sonhow Silver Belt

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    As someone who has profited from past Brown and Cerrone fights- obviously this fight will be "madness" and Cerrone wont win it via "perfect technical fight". Cerrone could take aggressive grappling approach from the start and sub Matt.... or more likely it's a war on the feet where Matt has a much better chance to score with his big straight punches and elbows from the Clinch. Cerrone has said he doesn't study fights so don't wait for him to follow any gameplan.
     
  20. piglord Black Belt

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    in all of his fights at ww, cerrone has shot a takedown early in r1. i think he's consciously trying to incorporate his jiujitsu more which will bode well for him here.
     
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