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UFC 206 - Pettis vs Holloway - Toronto

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 3, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    kennedy overrates his own standup so much.. it's cost him in the past...
     
  2. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    I think Cub line goes down before fight gets closer. Casuals are late with their betting and they will recognise the name and bet Swanson.
     
  3. Polarize Green Belt

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    It would be foolish not to give Pettis credit but Holloway is simply excellent with a reliable style to win rounds, better boxing with more volume. Holloway has a big winning streak and improving fight by fight. I don't think Pettis has bad cardio but this is his 2 fight in FW, The weight cut is not going to be any point in favor. But the most important, Holloway can switch stances. I like him a lot more if he fights southpaw.

    I remove from the equation the grappling (where Pettis excels as you said), Holloway has thrown 3 takedowns in his UFC career. Pettis wrestling offense is the weakest part of his game and rarely goes for the takedown (He tried some takedowns against Barboza when the brazilian began to frustrate him iirc, If I was him I would try to force a grappling fight since the begining but that's not his style) + Holloway footwork and TDD are good.

    Pettis is a hell of a fighter, durable and always dangerous but honestly Holloway is on another level imo.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
  4. Polarize Green Belt

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    lol Robin Black is God.
     
  5. piglord Black Belt

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    yeah i like gastelum in this spot, even with the size disadvantage. they're both good wrestlers but i think gastelum has better boxing. not to mention, 2 years on the bench at age 37 isn't confidence inspiring.
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Kennedy has sneaky power i remember he rocked bisping a few times and his power seemed to make bisping really hesitant. Kg ate woodleys best and didnt flinch. I like kg here.
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I'm on board with KG too. I had 1u on him at +140. Just added .5u at +130. I think he could end up the favorite by Sat, or at least a pick 'em.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I pulled the trigger now on Cowboy, big. I debated waiting for reduced but I'm really worried he ends up like -350 or so by Sat. Maybe I'm misreading where the line could move but I'd have way more regret missing out on him at -260 and having to pay -320 or whatever than I will betting him now and possibly getting -220 or something later. I'm comfortable with the line (given my analysis here, VERY comfortable LOL) so just gonna pull the trigger now. If his line improves somehow, I can't say I'll add. There isn't an obvious hedge. Maybe Brown KO? Going 5.2u to win 2u now. Plus I have him in parlays. Gonna end up as possibly my biggest pre fight play in a long time.
     
  9. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    So yeah just posted it in the wrong thread, but Cub's ML @ 2/1 looks like crazy value to me. Even thought it was a mistake when I first saw the lines. Sure Choi has looked very good so far but he hasn't fought anyone of Cub's calibre yet.
     
  10. Ballsaque Brown Belt

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    Gastelum will be ground to a nob. He has not bottom game, and Tim is bigger, stronger and a better wrestler.
     
  11. vkram Brown Belt

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    Not a mistake, Cub's line is close to that on the US books.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
  12. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Going big on Kelvin. Kennedy is one of the most overrated fighters in recent UFC history. Now he's 37 and coming off a 2 year layoff
     
  13. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    I would guess it goes up also it opened at -245 went to -280 and now is -260. Matt brown has shown to be a durable fighter but in my opinion cerrone is better in every category. Love cerrone here as well and will take the -3.5 also when that prop comes out.
     
  14. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Already have some action at -260 in a parlay with halloway
     
  15. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Then I'm unloading all over it. In this division Cub should only be a 2/1 dog against Aldo, Edgar, or Max imo.
     
  16. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    That's hilarious. Playing fucking Mozart to Cub Swanson punching people in the head haha.
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-206-betting-odds/

    Misha Cirkunov +110
    Nikita Krylov -150

    Over 1.5 -110
    Under 1.5 -130


    Drew Dober +160
    Olivier Aubin-Mercier -210

    Over 2.5 -210
    Under 2.5 +160


    Viviane Pereira +140
    Valerie Letourneau -180

    Over 2.5 -190
    Under 2.5 +150


    Matthew Lopez
    Mitch Gagnon -175

    Over 2.5 -135
    Under 2.5 -105


    John Makdessi -110
    Lando Vannata -130

    Over 2.5 -135
    Under 2.5 -105


    Jason Saggo +180
    Rustam Khabilov -260

    Over 2.5 -245
    Under 2.5 +175


    Dustin Ortiz +165
    Zach Makovsky -215

    Over 2.5 -265
    Under 2.5 +185


    ----------

    wow cirkunov +110? definitely for me

    matthew lopez (i'm guessing htat's +135 or +145 , not shown) -- i'll be on that, too, i think

    vannata -130 hrmmmm maybe

    ortiz +165 hrmmm maybe, sad the O2.5 is so high heh.

    mayber dober +160, hrmmm

    saggo +180 hrmmmm

    no clue who letourneau is fighting
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    That Robin Black video is phenomenal
     
  19. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    No NY lines though?

    Only hitting Dober, wait for props for the rest. Even for Dober, gonna only make it a half unit play and put the other half on him by dec
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Also, for the homies like @Sham5916910 with the parlay style, how do u not make the most massive two teamer ever out of the overs for the Ortiz/Mak and Saggo/Rustam fights?! lol
     
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