UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

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Pretty high confidence betting card for me here, which is what I need after the Paige and Sage show.

Already pretty damn certain on all plays ill be making. Some of which will have big risk for me
 
Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey
Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt
Fabricio Werdum vs. Cain Velasquez
TJ Dillashaw vs. John Lineker
Jessica Andrade vs. TBA
Johny Hendricks vs. Neil Magny
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Mike Pyle vs. Alex Garcia
Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg
Alex Oliveira vs. Tim Means
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Marvin Vettori
Brandon Thatch vs. Niko Price

miHNIGF.jpg
 
i think means will destroy cowboy on the feet. how good is his tdd though?
 
Brazilian Cowboy by decision could be a nice sized bet for me if it opens where I think it will based on moneyline and o/u. Not sold on Means tdd, and not sold he can stop Cowboy from bullying him in the clinch.
 
Magny +100 just did 2u. Does anyone still believe in Hendricks and that he's putting the work in? Magny loses and he obsesses and works even harder. I'll bet on that thank you. This this flips and he's the favorite at some point, but we'll see.

Thatch -350? I'm blindly betting on Price having never seen him for .5u. He's 8-0, 7 finishes and quite frankly I'm not sure Thatch should be -350 against a cardboard cutout of Ellen Degeneres.

Also fading Pyle's chin. 1u on Garcia.
 
fuck me the o2,5 in lineker/dillashaw is already back to -175
 
hoping we get some crazy dec line again on Lineker :D
 
I'm wondering if we should be fading Team Elevation. Dillashaw, Magny and Thatch

They have been doing horrible - Matt Brown, Bojan Velickovic, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober + Magny and Thatch
 
Need to watch tape, but I really like Saff, Werdum, and Borg as dogs. Put 3 units on Werdum like a month ago so I think I'll leave that. Kind of want to bet Magny but his striking is bad and Hendricks has never really had trouble in the clinch.
 
i love saff as well at pick 'em or dog odds.

hendricks/magny basically depends on how in shape (or on drugs) hendricks is, so it's a pass for me.

i was on werdum the first fight but i think cain pulverises him this time.
 
Magny +100 just did 2u. Does anyone still believe in Hendricks and that he's putting the work in? Magny loses and he obsesses and works even harder. I'll bet on that thank you. This this flips and he's the favorite at some point, but we'll see.
not sure on magny, myself. wanna see what kind of shape hendricks is in on that one.
 
i think means will destroy cowboy on the feet. how good is his tdd though?

that's the big question for me. Howboy looked super strong vs brooks. obviously means is a bigger dude and their was an unforeseen/unfair weight advantage for oliveira in that fight (and a busted rib, possibly)... but still.

oliveira seems more vulnerable to good grapplers than anything so far...
 
I'm wondering if we should be fading Team Elevation. Dillashaw, Magny and Thatch

They have been doing horrible - Matt Brown, Bojan Velickovic, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober + Magny and Thatch

I actually thought Brown looked the best he has in a while against Cowboy and Dober looked good under them too. Every camp goes through a rough patch, I mean JacksonWink did earlier this year.
 
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Lineker +200 seems completely off to me. I wanted to bet tj but no way nearing -300. Im tempted to take lineker.

Theres rumours tj is off gear and while he looked fine against assunciao its still a concern. Hes not finishing lineker either. Can lineker catch him or pressure him and land enough to steal a dec. I think +200 is worth finding out
 
This event is in Vegas. Remember what Hendricks said about Vegas and the buffets.
 
I predict Magny hendrcks will play out just like Magny lombard
Hendricks doesn't tend to gas that badly though and has a better traditional takedown game than Lombard which should work well because of Magny's frame.
 
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