UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

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Joseph Budden said:
what are you talking about bri...errr Buddy. Didn't look like he was taking anything off lol just trying to figure out what to do. Eventually he did since Dodson did the exact same pattern the whole fight.
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He has never took the first round off like he did vs Dodson in a 3 round fight, he usually starts fast. I thought it was clear he was conserving himself.

Also, there's nothing wrong with starting slow in a 5 round fight and figuring your opponent out before using energy. It's actually smart.
 
I'm no @SBJJ lol.

Probably gonna lay $1500 on the whole card. At about $500 now playing every fight.
My unit is only $75. Was at $120 a couple years back when I studied fights and football more.

I'm in jackpot, NV now and heading to vegas tonight.
Gonna miss the whole card pretty much.

Good luck I'll probably be back on when I'm home in about 3-4 hours.
 

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One thing, I sure as hope the RR/Nunes fight doesn't leave the 3rd round. Might be the sloppiest mess of a fight ever, probably end WMMA
 
If Means marches forward against Cowboy he's going to win this fight and I think we're going to know right away in the 1st round.

Cowboy's likes to bounce around and use his length to "go first" when getting into striking exchanges but because he's built very long he's got to fight that way.

Tim Means can "go first" in striking exchanges as well because of how tall he is but he's got better combinations, sharper punches, better accuracy, just not the better power which I don't think plays a part in this fight because both guys are built tough and I think Mean's accuracy will be the better asset. What I think he can also do in this fight is I think Means is the better counter striker as well. He slips and rips to both head and body and he's got some nice set ups for his spinning attacks.

Why I think his counter striking will shine against Cowboy is that Cowboy leaves his hands down and he throws with a lot of power which is a bad recipe against Means.

Of course the obvious gameplan from Cowboy that we're all expecting is the pressure against the fence and TDs. Tim Means is a good Muay Thai fighter too and don't underestimate Tim's ability to put Cowboy on his back as well I think he can.

Money is coming in on Cowboy and I'm really not budging with my pick. I think Means takes this and I like him here as an underdog. I also like the improved No Scorecards line.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
If Means marches forward against Cowboy he's going to win this fight and I think we're going to know right away in the 1st round.

Cowboy's likes to bounce around and use his length to "go first" when getting into striking exchanges but because he's built very long he's got to fight that way.

Tim Means can "go first" in striking exchanges as well because of how tall he is but he's got better combinations, sharper punches, better accuracy, just not the better power which I don't think plays a part in this fight because both guys are built tough and I think Mean's accuracy will be the better asset. What I think he can also do in this fight is I think Means is the better counter striker as well. He slips and rips to both head and body and he's got some nice set ups for his spinning attacks.

Why I think his counter striking will shine against Cowboy is that Cowboy leaves his hands down and he throws with a lot of power which is a bad recipe against Means.

Of course the obvious gameplan from Cowboy that we're all expecting is the pressure against the fence and TDs. Tim Means is a good Muay Thai fighter too and don't underestimate Tim's ability to put Cowboy on his back as well I think he can.

Money is coming in on Cowboy and I'm really not budging with my pick. I think Means takes this and I like him here as an underdog. I also like the improved No Scorecards line.
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wish it was live bettable :(
 
EzFlyer said:
was rd 3, right? omielanczuk

you can't get a technical dec in rd 2

it's rd 3 if a 3 round fight, it's rd 4 or 5 if a 5 round fight

(if an accidental foul ends the fight in those situations)
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Please don't bring that fight up! Would have cashed a ~.09u for ~9u parlay if Omie won a regular 3 round decision, but that technical decision fucked me. Fuck Danho, he took the easy way out on that soft nutshot, iirc
 
I saw a little bit of tape on Niko Price and I swear this is a gimmie fight for Thatch. If Thatch can't beat this guy then he needs to retire because if Thatch DOES lose to this guy it's because he has no heart and no grappling skills.

If Niko can weather the storm I think he wins this but as bad as he is I think they get into heated exchanges early and Thatch puts him out which kicks and knees.

Don't blame anyone for not trusting Thatch with your money he's a bum but this Niko guy is pretty sloppy.
 
KnockYouOut said:
Nunes over Ronda is such a good bet as an underdog. I'd go huge on this.

I actually would be surprised if Ronda won and that's the feeling I look for when I place a bet.

I won a lot of Money betting on Garbrandt vs Almeida but I don't think Cody's Bully mindset is a sign of strength here. I think he is confused and is reminding me of Ronda before the Holly fight.

I would love to see Cody get knocked out but I think Cruz Frustrates him and wins a decision or maybe a TKO.

I just don't like the heavy favorite odds for Cruz enough to put money down.

Nunes is a great bet, wish I was in Vegas for this.
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wmma is never good to bet huge on.. trust me i speak from experience :eek:
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I saw a little bit of tape on Niko Price and I swear this is a gimmie fight for Thatch. If Thatch can't beat this guy then he needs to retire because if Thatch DOES lose to this guy it's because he has no heart and no grappling skills.

If Niko can weather the storm I think he wins this but as bad as he is I think they get into heated exchanges early and Thatch puts him out which kicks and knees.

Don't blame anyone for not trusting Thatch with your money he's a bum but this Niko guy is pretty sloppy.
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i generally agree, but i'm going the U1.5 route for the reasons i've expressed already, it's the same price as thatch ML -- and i'm keeping this fight small, personally.

i put thatch on a bunch of my DK's as a personal choice to kind of have a vested interest in his side, but yea.

...that said, you might be more accurate than i am on this. my $ is not where my mouth is (nor am i disagreeing w/anything you said)
 
All these analyses are really good and all, but the question I'm wondering is:

DID BARRY POST HIS VALUE PICK YET?!??

(I bet 1U on it being Cruz ML).
 
anyone care to help me out on Shoe Face vs Vettori?

I am leaning Vettori, but my concern is the size difference. Shoe Face is a big boy at MW. Has he ever had cardio issues other than against Dan Kelly? It doesn't seem like it.
 
EzFlyer said:
was rd 3, right? omielanczuk

you can't get a technical dec in rd 2

it's rd 3 if a 3 round fight, it's rd 4 or 5 if a 5 round fight

(if an accidental foul ends the fight in those situations)
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Yeah, that's what I was thinking of, round 3.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Barao. And this Lineker pressure is getting blown out of proportion, as is anyone saying 'Lineker throws volume'. After watching tape, those are two horrible arguments. TJ throws more volume. Lineker looked straight lost in round 1 vs Dodson and threw maybe 3 strikes in the first 3 mins. He only was able to let go when he figured out a way to be successful with his hands after Dodson made it clear he would keep backing himself into the fence and attack off of it from the same side (left) everytime. Dillashaw will do neither of those things. Plus, Dodson straight threw Lineker to the ground in round 1. Can't fathom how easy TJ will get tds if he wants them.

Lineker won't back TJ up, I guarantee this. TJ will use angles, as he always does. If anyone thinks those angles can be negated by straight forward pressure, than they need to read more Jack Slack lol thats not how this game works

No exaggeration, I see Lineker getting schooled. I'm more sure of it than ever after rewatching the Dodson fight. TJ won't lose to a one trick pony, and one who looked lost by Dodson's predictable movements early on
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i dont see it this way at all. but if you really belive in this TJ should be the biggest you ever made on MMA? the way you break it down it sounds like TJ should be -1000 :)
 
What a well matched card. Cruz is the biggest favorite at -210.
 
wack3d said:
i dont see it this way at all. but if you really belive in this TJ should be the biggest you ever made on MMA? the way you break it down it sounds like TJ should be -1000 :)
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It is the biggest i've ever had at risk on a single play.

Genuinely not sure why anyone thinks Lineker is just going to lug forward and somehow that wins him the fight. Makes zero sense.
 
Joseph Budden said:
It is the biggest i've ever had at risk on a single play.

Genuinely not sure why anyone thinks Lineker is just going to lug forward and somehow that wins him the fight. Makes zero sense.
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Not from lunging forward alone, presumably he's going to land some punches too!
 
Buddy Brown said:
Shuuuuucks RIP Means bettors (me included)! @Sham5916910

MMABettingTips is big on Means.
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200.gif
 
Means small
Shoeface small
Thatch KO medium
Garcia KO small
Magny(-110) big
Magny ITD small
Cruz huge
TJ huge
Nunes/Ronda U1,5 big
Nunes via 1st round KO medium
 
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