Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 17, 2017.
Silva as dog imo.
I have 10 units on GDR, don't see any reason she isn't a significant favorite unless it's expected that Holm is gonna win it on the ground (which I don't think she will). Imo, she's better at everything and has an advantage at every range. She has a sharper kicking game on the outside, a better clinch game, and better footwork/punch selection/head movement in the pocket. Holm is only really effective on the outside with pot-shots and shifting rushes into kicks. As much as she's been billed as a boxer, she can't actually box at all. She also has no jab while GDR has a decent one.
GDR should be fine dealing with Holm's one-off kicks on the outside, and I don't see her backing away from the shifting rushes like Holm needs to put her punch-kick combos together. In boxing range, Holm is pretty terrible. She has no head movement or footwork in the pocket, throws everything extremely heavy on the lead foot so there's little power in her punches, her head comes in straight up, and it takes her forever to recover. GDR has a habit of overextending on her straight, but Holm does that too, and GDR can actually change levels/pivot/move her head in the pocket, and generally do things other than running away in panic which Holm can't. Whenever Holm finds herself in the pocket, she uselessly flicks out her jab and runs backwards, killing her stance and leaving her open on the exit. She has no close-range punches and all her strikes are designed for long range (straight, long, whipping check hook, shifting straight blitzes). GDR can hang there and also throws a nice overhand/uppercut in close. Holm's lead-foot-heavy pot shots and shifting rushes make sure she spends a lot of time in the pocket where she's weak.
Holm isn't comfortable counterpunching unless opponents charge her face-first like Rousey, so I don't see that being a viable route here.
All in all, I don't think Holm is very good at striking and am fading her hard against good strikers. I think her best route is taking it to the ground, but I've only ever seen body lock takedowns (the one against Ronda) out of her and I think GDR's double collar tie game will make that difficult for her. I don't have any confidence in her to be able to shoot, or to do much on top if she does get it down.
^ i largely agree, but i'm a little more concerned about the possible takedown than you are. i think holm will make that her focal point (meaning her camp will). and she has shown some solid td's in training (i'm aware that's different than in fights) -- it's just the smartest strategy when fighting GDR, unless you're cyborg. (and frankly, even cyborg would prolly do it just to GnP her instead of risking anything on the feet)
That's fair, I do think there is some danger of Holm taking it to the ground but I'm not super concerned with it. I've never seen a shot from her and I'm not confident one camp is going to be enough to give her a decent shot. Off the top of my head, every time GDR got wrestled it was by fighters with solid explosive double legs (Nunes, Budd) and also the chain wrestling ability to use doubles to push her into the fence and hit takedowns from the clinch. She defended a bunch of Kedzie's takedowns and I'm not sure Holm's will be more troubling than those. Do you have any footage of her going for takedowns in training?
pretty darn surprised that holm is now the dog, +110 etc.. i still think $ will come in her way, but yea...
Holm getting TD's is one thing, but I really doubt she's able to do anything with them or even hold GDR down for any period of time even if she scores a few. And I agree GDR's striking is just more varied and less predictable. In addition, Holm really isn't good if forced to take the lead. She's a good counter puncher, but when she's forced to be the aggressor she looks very average. Where as GDR is an elite striker both with countering and when she's pressing the action.
I'm waiting too, I don't think GDR gets bet from here at -120. Maybe the line stays where it is and just wait for reduced, but hopefully Holly gets bet. I'd like GDR at evens at least, maybe even dog odds.
Good B/D, but I honestly think Holm is better countering than when she's pressing forward. I mean, once the distance is closed and her opponent is already in the pocket I think you hit the nail on the head. She panicks and looks for an escape route (which way too often is straight backward). But her timing with her straight punches as opponents close distance is actually not bad. Granted, she really hasn't faced anyone that's used really good angles against her that I can remember.
Who exactly has GDR beat for you guys to be so confident in her lol? She's 6-3 and her best win is who, Kedzie? I think Holms' experience in championship fights pays off here.
Anderson Silva @ +150? I'm hitting that, If it gets out the first round, the fight is Silva's IMO.
The barbarian +350?
Keep getting an usada vibe from jacare
It's actually even worse than I realized. GDR has 5 wins in the UFC/Strikeforce and her opponents in those fights are a combined 0-10 in the UFC/Strikeforce. Still not sure who I'm picking in the fight (possibly a pass) but I thought that was interesting.
all about styles i think GDR have the better overall standup skills and have the speed,reach,power advantage to make holm look bad.. but if she can mix it up and take the fight to the ground she could win the fight for sure
also while her mma record is not great she is 37-0 in kickboxing
Fair discussion from both sides, only thing i'd caution which i'm doing myself is wait for fight week interviews. While I doubt Holly is gonna flat out say she will try to wrestle, i know the question will come up and i'm very interested how she answers.
Great discussion and info on Holm/GDR. How is GDR's cardio? She has never gone 5 in MMA and I have not seen her kickboxing footage. Holm could have an advantage in the championship rounds as she has shown no cardio issues going 5 with Tate or Shev.
I will probably play Silva ITD if the line is juicy. Excuse the expression, but Brunson went full retard vs Whittaker and Silva is still dangerous and has always been accurate with his counters.
I actually think Brunson will be much more conservative this time around and will look for takedowns.
Think so too, very doubtful he wants to risk looking like his last fight. He just got drunk on getting fast ko's and going all out. I understand why he approached it that way, it's a huge ego booster, quick payday and it gets people talking, and who knows, he might have lost one of those previous fights instead of getting 4 consecutive first round ko's. But there was a point where he was probably going to pay for it.
I watched the Kedzie fight earlier and GDR's cardio looked ok. She seemed fairly fresh at the end of the third round. My main concerns with her in this fight are activity level (2 fights in the past 3+ years) and what's going to happen if she ends up on her back. Not that Holm's top game is anything special but from the tape I've watched, once GDR is on her back, she's pretty much there for the rest of the round. Also, as previously mentioned, her best win is a close split decision against Julie Kedzie. Her other wins are against fighters no where near Holm's level and completely different stylistic matchups.
That would be the smart thing to do, but sometimes it seems like he can't help himself. I mean he was over committing on strikes before the Whittaker KO. Conventional wisdom says he should look for takedowns and fight more conservative, but who knows if he actually will. I think if Silva wins it will be ITD, because if it goes to a dec I think it will be because Brunson did exactly what you guys stated..
That would be smart, but its also assumptive. Hoping during fight week interviews Brunson gives a little insight in to how he plans on fighting. If hes going all out again, ill gladly play Silva
i kinda don't think that was the jackson's gameplan for brunson so much as his lack of confidence in himself / succuming to pressure etc. cody saftic put it so well before the whittaker fight.. paraphrasing: "for a guy who has a bunch of round 1 finishes in a row, he fights like he's scared" -- meaning: he's scared to go to deep waters, he's scared to let the fight play out, maybe he doesn't believe in himself etc.
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