Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 17, 2017.
I won't be able to watch the fights tonight or be ITT but figured I would drop off my picks and a couple of breakdowns. Best of luck to you guys tonight!
The prospect that once was Phillipe Nover is now one loss removed from getting cut from the UFC. Unfortunately, I believe he picks up a pink slip on the way out of cage tonight. Nover isn't consist enough to out point nor does he have the power to get Rick to respect him and back off. Glenn is constantly on his front foot and will be in Nover's face all night. Glenn will be putting pressure on Nover and racking up points. The best chance Nover has to win this fight is to use his wrestling and put Glenn on is back at work his black belt level jujitsu. However, Rick is no slouch in the jitz depot himself and his counter wrestling and TDD will be enough to stifle Nover and get himself his first octagon victory.
Belal Muhammad vs. Randy Brown
This fight is essentially a pick em' on the books, yet I believe it is the underdog Muhammad that has more ways to win this fight. Randy Brown is incredibly talented and has a lot of physical attributes which make him a dangerous man, but he is still a relatively green fighter with liabilities galore. Particularly, the mixed martial arts neophyte has gaping holes that Muhammad has the requisite skill set to exploit. Specifically the wrestling. Muhammad uses excellent striking to set up reactive takedowns during his boxing and Randy Brown needs a lot of work on his TDD. I think that Muhammad is being underrated because he got starched by Luque last time. However, it's important to remember how well Mohammed performed against Jouban when he was fasting no less. The fact is, Luque is an animal right now and a loss to him doesn't mean too much to me. Nevertheless I think Muhammad uses his wrestling and cleaner technical boxing to pick up the upset.
I give Anderson a far better chance to win this fight that most people believe. Brunson has a real nasty habit of rushing in with his chin straight up in the air with his arms low and wide. He changes in throwing wide looping power punches that put him off balance and simultaneously give his opponent the opportunity to land precision counterstrikes. Indeed, when he comes in swinging you could literally fit a semi truck through that guard. Alas, even at 40 years old, Anderson is still a fucking sniper and if Brunson comes barreling in like the proverbial bull, I see Anderson taking full advantage and ripping off a perfect laser guided missile straight down the pike to the tip of the Brunson's jawline. That said, my favorite play for this fight is the under 1.5 rounds. I believe whatever happens here does so in the first 7.5 minutes of the contest.
While I'm not picking him outright, I also believe that Jim Miller has value here. Yes DP is much more diverse and most assuredly hits harder than Miller. Moreover he has cleaner striking than Jimmy. Nevertheless, Miller is tougher than a calculus problem in algebra class and isn't going out like a chump near his hometown if he can help it. Rumor was that in his fight with Diego Sanchez and a few tilts prior to that, Miller had actually contracted Lyme disease and was fighting with very little training and a shallow gas tank as a result. There is a good possibility that Miller turns this bout into a dog fight and is able to use his wrestling to bring Porier to the mat and control him with his heavy top control and BJJ game en route to a UD. At +430 I have to take a stab and will probably put a flier on him by decision.
I think that Islam waxes Lentz by probably getting a stoppage late round two or round three. Lentz looked softer than the Michelin Man at the weigh-ins and I'm not sure how seriously he is taking this fight. In fact, he has went back and forth recently with discussion of a possible retirement. That is never a good sign. Additionally, Lentz was never a tremendous athlete but was able to get by on his suffocating grappling. I don't think he has that in his back pocket anymore and I think that the young hungry upstart cuts through him like a warm through butter.
Maybe so, but I don't think Laflare is much more dangerous than Robertson standing, and Carneiros movement and defense looked good in that fight. If laflare is making big strides with hooft like luque did then I'm fucked, but I cap laflare as a "sparring" type of striker and I like the over here.
if u didn't already hedge out, if your unsure Cannonier at 205, you can just guarantee you self app .2 u profit no matter who wins
I think Glover uses his wrestling here takes down Cann and gets a submission. Probably a arm triangle. I like the under 1.5
Reis vs Sasaki quickest fight of the night @ +1000, anyone see value in that?
Nice love that Nover vs Glenn is now on FS1 I really like that fight as a live bet option.
It looks like I am in the 20%-30% minority that is on Brown. I think Brown beats Belal to the punch with his superior hand speed & possibly gets a stoppage. Wished his line would have improved a bit but I am on him for around 2.5u straight & a bit more with parlays.
Not really imo, I see boetch/ jacare, poirier/miller, silva/brunson potentially ending faster
LaFlare is more accurate and he's actually got technique. Robertson is a gritty dirty-type fighter. I think the comparison pales to apples to oranges.
Carniero + defense should never be in the same sentence bro.
Carniero backpeddled and controlled the range because Robertson has 0 technique or grasp on range. Also Carneiro had the grappling in his back pocket in that fight once the gap was closed.
In this fight, he's going to lose at range and so he's got to decide whether he wants to get picked apart or get in close and actually fight instead of backpeddling all fight. LaFlare is also a much better wrestler.
I don't like the price I'm sure everyone can agree so I won't hate on anyone taking the dog bet but Roan is a bum at this age and will wrap up a bum career really soon.
In conclusion, I'm not saying ITD is the likeliest result but I wouldn't trust this fight to go o2.5 and thus I'm taking my chances on a +283 play. If it were any lower I would just skip it but because I'm not afraid of losing my money I'm going to play it.
I'm with you on brown, I think he will do more damage and go for more subs in the fight, and with the new judging criteria it might be the difference, hoping for a stoppage tho.
Actually think this is a tougher fight than Barao considering Barao's KOs mostly come from low percentage moves, Barao is smaller, has a shorter reach(not just in arms), Glenn is always looking for a finish and has more power. People speak of Nover's chin but I don't believe he has faced anyone with the consistent ability to test it.
I think Glenn wins by TKO after rd1.
Carniero in his prime ^
Watch the beginning of the 1st round, and then skip to the beginning of the 2nd round.
I've watched this dude for a long time. He's always lacked heart.
You'r either a troll or just a real beginner in betting world.
Glenn is a long fighter and he pushes for the referee to step in and stop a fight so he doesn't necessarily need to KO you clean.
He represents a lot of diff problems compared to Barao.
Of course Glenn has no TDD and has a Tall-Man-Defense complex but yeah he's a diff challenge than Barao.
If there's a finish it could be in the 3rd round by either guy.
I haven't yet. Still Considering it. It might depend on how my night is going up until that point.
Regarding banning and the pbp thread, I understand people are drinking and have a lot on the line. And really nothing bothers me other than people saying the losing side people are so stupid and you guys don't know crap etc...
Go ahead and celebrate and brag just don't rub it in other people's faces. They are already pissed at losing. Look how EZ handles winning
Tailed MMA Goodfella on Silva-Brunson under 1.5
bets so far:
Brunson 1.8 to win 1.25 -145
Cannonier .5 u at +190
Carneiro .7 u at +290
Sasaki .2u at +506
wow! this is only +130 now
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