UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

[weedreference]

LOL did Woodley really say he's better than GSP?

He would definitely be the favorite over him, at least. Stylistically it's a ridiculously bad matchup for GSP.

 

[iGnP]

He would definitely be the favorite over him, at least. Stylistically it's a ridiculously bad matchup for GSP.

I think he meant prime vs prime. GSP would absolutely work Woodley in the stand up

 

[MacPherson911]

I'm not the world's greatest fight analyst, but I'm thinking about betting the over on both the main and co-main here. Good idea or nah?

 

[iGnP]

I'm not the world's greatest fight analyst, but I'm thinking about betting the over on both the main and co-main here. Good idea or nah?

I think both fights go over as well. But yeah, you're paying juice on both. For what its worth, I already bet the o2.5 in the main event

 

[Sham5916910]

Got 3.3 units on Ferg. If he hits +200 gonna be so hard not to add more but i don't want to add more. It's more a value play for me think it should be a pick 'em. Highly likely you get a good line on Ferg after r1 so if i want to add more i should just hold out for lb.

Eyeing Lando + Bektic but odds dependent. Hopefully the ultra juiced lines don't continue.

 

[lawmills2006]

I have a feeling a lot of money is going to come in on Khabib. Ferg hitting +200 might then be line of the year.

Agreed, people sleeping on Tony, and all the hype that Khabib brings with that undefeated streak. Def holding out for now.

 

[onC]

Im confused, what do you guys mean when you say that you're picking somebody as "a value play"? I mean, why would you ever make a bet that you think isnt +EV?

 

[trucido]

Initial leans: Craig, Herman, Overeem, Ferguson, Woodley.

Currently have 3u on Overeem, 3u Ferguson, 1u on Overeem, Woodley and Ferguson parlay

 

[onC]

Ohmbet has Lando @1.55 and Bektic @1.6. Idk about Bektic at those odds, Elkins is such a tough sob.

 

[Sham5916910]

FFS if Ohmbet has them odds the real odds will be much juicier.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Overeem at -135 seems like a steal to me, I cap him around -170 or -180.

Hunt doesn't have as many tools as Stipe and Reem's technique had been looking cherry before that fight.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I hope Bektic isn't juiced, Elkins is a solid test for him.

 

[wack3d]

this is Thompson's camp =/ now im tempted to bet Woodley lol

 

[HeDucking]

Im confused, what do you guys mean when you say that you're picking somebody as "a value play"? I mean, why would you ever make a bet that you think isnt +EV?

Most see Khabib vs Ferg as a pickem. Some might favor Khabib ever so slightly and vice versa. Now Ferg is a moderately big dog, so there's value in betting him as people think theyre getting a better price than they thought.

 

[onC]

Most see Khabib vs Ferg as a pickem. Some might favor Khabib ever so slightly and vice versa. Now Ferg is a moderately big dog, so there's value in betting him as people think theyre getting a better price than they thought.

You misunderstood me. Im just confused about how people on this forum speak of "value plays" as if they also make bets that arent "value plays".

 

[HeDucking]

You misunderstood me. Im just confused about how people on this forum speak of "value plays" as if they also make bets that arent "value plays".

Seeing a play you know has some chance of hitting but you're forced to play it anyways as the likelihood of that play hitting is much higher than the odds suggest. So risk <<<<< reward type situation.

 

[edole]

I could see the WB vs Woodley rematch as being one of those ones where it goes from being a reaaally close 5 rd decision and everyone is expecting a similar fight to a first round finish

 

[Joseph Budden]

You misunderstood me. Im just confused about how people on this forum speak of "value plays" as if they also make bets that arent "value plays".

To clarify the lingo on my end, value play = line that is the most off or biggest price difference to where I would set it. I don't always play those lines cause this game is about winning, and I find in order to win you have to find a balance between the value and how you think it will ultimately play out. For example, Markos dec was obvious value, especially when it reached +500 during the week. But so was Taleb dec +500. One hit, but the other saw the -300 favorite come through. Of course I personally feel playing value on lines should be number one priority and I try (keyword try) to stick to making that my main focus on my plays, but its not always that easy when you have a fight like Ponz vs Taleb where one way or another I see Ponz winning, even if Taleb dec +500 was way off

 

[Shoulder]

For me it's a thin line on betting on value and throwing away money on stupid props. I generally try to hit fewer and fewer lines, but sometimes you just gotta hit shit you don't believe in just cause the line is off.

Example, I think Vannatas line will be super juiced vs Teymur, so I'll likely throw 0.5U on Teymur.

I'll probably play Woolley again, he is so much smarter and better than given credit for, so I think he figures out how how to solve the Wonderboy-riddle. He is 2.10 now but I guess his line will get better.

Already on Ferg with 4U.

 

[NorthernLights]

Ohmbet has Lando @1.55 and Bektic @1.6. Idk about Bektic at those odds, Elkins is such a tough sob.

Is everybody sold on Lando? I don't know...might actually be some value in Teymur especially when the hype train money starts coming in on Lando. Teymur is no bum. His striking is on point (looked improved against Novelli too IIRC) Feel like this might be closer than people think. Pre tape watch thoughts, might end up thinking that 1.55 is gods gift...