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UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 19, 2017.

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  1. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    I emptied the clip
     
  2. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Good luck. I just dont see it. Yeah, everything you said about Rashad is true but I dont think Kelly is anything special. Even in his current declined state, I'd actually be shocked if he loses. Why didn't you wait for decision odds?
     
  3. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    My book only gives me ml and o/u. no props except for main events.

    Thanks! Are you playing Rashad?
     
  4. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I only have a bet on the over for now. Tempted to play Rashad decision. I probably will, though
     
  5. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    I bet the over as well. gl
     
  6. Bee Cho Chen Banned Banned

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    Woodley will beat Wonderboy chin
     
  7. piglord Black Belt

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    i played kelly at +195 for value, i think rashad wins hands down, i'm an idiot.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Rashad -125 to -140 is where I cap it.

    Kelly worth a small play at currenty odds, but going nuts on him in this spot is...well...nuts imo.
     
  9. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Khabib will attempt many TDs, this is known however the places he could get the TDs may be limited in this fight. Shooting for the double in the clinch is a nono on someone with the snapdown and darce ability of Ferg. Fergs natural instinct is to look for the choke even before the choke comes.

    MJ has a fantastic sprawl here but he isnt as drilled as other grapplers in the controlling of the opponents head and neck, so he looks for the choke to late.
    [​IMG]

    Here we see a similar entry by a training partner of Khabib at AKA shoot for a similar takedown but Ferg's instinct is to look for the darce. Notice how the difference in the reaction times between MJ and Ferg looking for the neck. Ferg's sprawl is also butter smooth.
    [​IMG]

    Another factor that I feel will also be detrimental to this fight is the use of the upkick for Ferg. Khabib's fearlessness and aggressiveness when on top may lead him into trouble against Ferg.

    MJ doesn't like to be on his back, so he's not comfortable in this position to throw upkicks like others such as Mousassi or Ferg. He sees shots raining on top of him so he kicks upwards not to damage but as a defensive manoeuvre. Here I think Ferg can land the upkicks.
    [​IMG]

    They are deadly.
    [​IMG]

    Heck, he may even use em illegally like he did with Barboza to change the complexion of the fight. Barboza was rocked badly.
    [​IMG]


    The more I look at this fight, the more it seems like its a complete toss up. Being comfortable on the back against the most deadly top game in the UFC may not yield results but Fergs scrambling ability, upkicks, armbar attempts, leglock attempts aswell as the rubber guard when fully dry could all aid him when he's on his back. Its not a complete mismatch down there.



    EDIT: MJ gif broke, had to fix it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  10. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Not trying to beat a dead horse but outside of Rashad's decline, is there a reason why you cap it so close?
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Kelly is durable and crafty, if athletically limited. Has a little pop and honestly after all these years I do think Rashad's decline is real. Not just in speed and athletic ability, but in his ability to absorb any amount of punishment at all.

    And even if Rashad's chin isn't completely shot, I don't have a ton of confidence that he has enough fire anymore to fight through any sort of adversity. He got to the top of the mountain, has had a long career, done the commentating, etc. Kelly is old but I believe more in him when it comes to passion. You have to have that drive if you get in a bad spot to make you want to fight through it. Sounds cheezy, but tapping or turtling up comes easier when you're in Rashad's spot imo.

    And again, if forced to pick a winner I'd take Rashad in spite of everything I just said. But laying -200 or more? No way.
     
  12. Orion Brown Belt

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    Also worth noting that the front head lock and/or darce position arguably allows for more security here than the guillotine attempt (IMO) due to the head and arm being trapped and the subsequent options available, i.e.: switching to the arm in guillotine, mounted darce if it gets locked up, marce if the opponent postures, anaconda, spinning to the back, crucifix, sweep opportunities, or even a long shot triangle like Rockhold hit on Boetsch when he stayed extended for the single.

    Definitely can't afford many situations like that MJ gif..playing with hot fire.

    Nice post.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
  13. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Expert Play Incoming

    LOL at the number on Paul Craig, how is he not like -200

    Tyson Predro is super green and unproven
    5 fights
    Never been out of the first round
    This fight will be his first out of Australia
    Tentative on the feet
    Low volume
    Unknown camp
    Got dropped in his debut

    I could go all day, why is this fight a pick'em?

    Bear Jew is a beast, was super impressed by his debut, he dominated a Henrique on the feet, ground and clinch. So many things I like about that performance.

    I think he dominates this inexperienced kid.

    Bear Jew is EZ money.
     
  14. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Totally agree re passion. Also look at their momentum. Kelly is red hot continually beating guys he shouldnt.

    Hashad is coming off losses and a long layoff.

    From a confidence perspective Kelly has all the points and he should be mentally in a much better place.

    I think the confidence and passion is more important right now as they are both old depleted dudes.
     
  15. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    You are no longer the face of MMA betting, I have replaced you.
     
  16. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Hardest fight to call on the whole card. So many unknowns, I think Rashad wins but Kelly is the play if you're gonna make one. I'm staying far away though.

    They would both get rekt by Bear Jew
     
  17. wack3d Silver Belt

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    [email protected] expert play :D

    Craig
    only been outside round 1 two times himself
    comes from a noname camp while Pedro trains at JW
    is a part time fighter
    calling him a beast becourse he beat one of the worst guy on the ufc roster and a guy that gassed after a couple minutes :D
     
  18. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    LOL Pedro does not train at JW, seems like he spent a few weeks there for this camp but it's not his gym.
    Craig is 12-0 including amateur fights
    Beating Henrique who was 12-0 at the time 2-0 UFC says a lot more than exploiting Rountree's white belt ground game.
    Have you actually seen Craig's UFC debut?

    This is going to look like a mismatch because it is one, mark my words.

    Bear Jew will destroy him
     
  19. wack3d Silver Belt

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    hes been at JW for at least the last 6 weeks
    i dont really care for his record.. his last 3 wins are decent but before that his opponents combined record is like 7 wins 50 looses meaningless to count those for anything
    ya i saw the fight i even bet on him to win vs Frankenstein it was solid debut for sure but i dont rate Frankenstein at all

    you also mention Pedro is green? he may have fewer mma fights but he has been doing martial arts his hole life while Craig started only 5 years ago
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
  20. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    In Pedro's debut he was so tentative on the feet, he couldn't even throw a punch, all he would do was throw side kicks to the leg, he looked super uncomfortable before getting dropped. He seems like a one dimensional fighter, he just wants to grapple. I don't care if he's done Japanese jujitsu his whole life, he's green and he has hardly any experience competing, it looks obvious when he fights too.

    Sure Henrique isn't great but he's a lot better than anyone Pedro's beaten, a lot. Craig didn't just beat Henrique, he dominated him in all area's. Craig is too well rounded for Pedro, he's gonna out work him and probably finish him.

    This fight is so easy to call. I'm not being cocky, just confident

    I don't know how anyone comes to the conclusion that Pedro is a good bet at -115, makes zero sense.

    No one has plays like myself and like I said, I'm going to a whole new level for this event, breaking my own records.

    There is no doubt that I'm the face of MMA betting.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
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