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UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 19, 2017.

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  1. wack3d Silver Belt

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  2. Caicara Purple Belt

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    I'm still waiting for some lines, but for now ( EDITED as corrected by @MMA Gambling Expert ):

    Cooper -125
    Craig +100
    Elkins +450
    Henrique +130
    Ferguson +150
    Woodley +137

    These lines are all off to me. Not that I think all of them are winning, but if you do, don't hesitate.

    This Elkins line is even a bit strange. Bektic is legit as fuck and the clear favorite, but not that experienced/proven yet. Elkins should be somewhere between +250/+300
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  3. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    You're doing the american odds wrong

    Wish everyone would just use decimal, it's so much easier.
     
  4. Caicara Purple Belt

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    I prefer decimals as well. But is it wrong? Look it up at bet365.

    Betting 100 to win +xxx logic :)
     
  5. Caicara Purple Belt

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    You guys are right. I missed all of them by a hundred.

    Cooper at -125
    Craig at +100
    and so on...

    Done :) Ty.
     
  6. daggen Blue Belt

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    Still happy with my -161 Bektic bet, but you guys try to worry me :)
     
  7. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    You think cooper should be a bigger fav?
     
  8. Orion Brown Belt

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    Reason for capping Cooper/Calvillo at anything more than a pick em?
     
  9. Caicara Purple Belt

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    Yes. I don't think Cooper is that bad and Calvillo is so unproven.

    She's big and she has lost to very good opponents ( Aspen Ladd is on a spotlight on Sherdog now too ). Experience also plays a factor here, the TUF house and everything. Moyle's win must be counted too - she's game.

    Calvillo's best win is Stewart, who seems to have a padded record...

    EDIT: She's been fighting professionally for only six months as well

    I know, WMMA. But still...
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  10. I'm hoping for late money on Khabib
     
  11. Orion Brown Belt

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    Calvillo also beat Ladd when they were amateurs.

    Cooper got dropped by Elmose and has really bad scrambling ability on the ground. Cooper's best attribute is her ability to stay light on her feet most of the time and the fact that she has 2 fights in the UFC to Calvillo's zero, but other than that she's vulnerable to getting into scrappy exchanges and giving up positions way too easily on the ground.

    I don't fully trust a 2-2 fighter like her who often looks like a white belt on the ground against someone who has been at TAM awhile and whos game revolves around pushing the pace and implementing the typical TAM strategy of takedowns and ground control at a high pace.

    I think the matchmaking here is appropriate and this is way too random of a fight to call flat out (and WMMA..)
     
  12. Caicara Purple Belt

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    Yeah, I understand your arguments. I've just added the six month factor as well.

    I'm not finding the article right now, but she has a full time job IIRC
     
  13. Caicara Purple Belt

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    Yeah, I understand your arguments. I just have the feeling that size will be a factor and also experience.
    I've just added the six month factor as well for Calv too
    IIRC, Calvillo has a full time job. I just can't find the article.
     
  14. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Doubt it gets as good as it was. I thought waiting till the last minute was the right choice but I ended up taking the +175, I do think the late money comes in on Khabib though.
     
  15. I have a decent number of units at 2.70 (+170) but I wouldn't mind adding more
     
  16. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Cooper is always game, her fight against Moyle really impressed me. She's a big strong 115er and she can punch. Don't know much about her opponent, she trains at Alpha Male, seems to be a grappler more than anything else. Cooper has bad TDD, this fight seems like a toss up. I'll go with Cooper though, she comes to fight, she's got better experience and she has the striking, hopefully she's been working hard on her TDD.
     
  17. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    FYI, Dude is in the gym twice a day. Every day
     
  18. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Orion said it all really. Calvillo is excellent on the mat and has solid takedowns. Cooper has terrible tdd like shockingly bad. The Moyle fight clearly should have gone to a third round too. Cooper has no power and pushes with her punches. Its wmma tho and im not 100% sold on calvillo pushing for tds constantly as she is at a disadvantage on the feet. I will prob take calvillo for half a unit. Calvillo is a big sw too. She beat aspen at 135lbs, made her pro debut at 125lbs, second fight at 120lbs and her last fight was her first fight at 115lbs.
     
  19. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Or maybe I don't have to defend a strawman due to your lack of reading comprehension. The argument isn't "Elkins had an easier time with Skelly, so he'll definitely beat Bektic". The point is that Skelly is the most similar opponent to Elkins that Bektic has faced. Elkins is a veteran that has cashed as an underdog at an incredible rate, and Bektic's toughest test in competition was Skelly which was a very tough fight for him. You have a guy at absolute ridiculous odds going against a spoiler who has faced better competition and succeeded with the same level of competition.

    What I find laughable is how many times you liked and agreed with people bringing up the Tibau vs. Khabib comparison with Tibau vs. Ferg and now you are saying this. There are several examples of that in this thread - a hell of a lot more than Elkins vs. Bektic which sits at much steeper odds.
     
  20. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    For a lesson in reading comprehension go back and read my posts. I never once said there was no value on betting Elkins you are making shit up. I don't blame anyone for betting Elkins at those odds. What i was pointing out is loads of people were justifying betting Elkins cos he gave Skelly a lopsided whooping and Bektic didn't. That means absolutely jack shit. That's like me saying i am betting Bektic cos he destroyed Martins and Elkins had to cage hug.

    With regards to Ferg Tibau which you keep bringing up. Normally I completely disregard MMA math. But when you have a scenario where Ferg has smashed up three people who Kebab beat but IMO in completely less empathetic fashion than Ferg, I think there is some merit to considering that when capping this fight.
     
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