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UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 6, 2017.

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  1. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Hmm why play this if you're already on Rumble? I mean Cormier submitted him in the last fight and if he wins it's probably gonna be another sub. It's gonna be easy for Rumble to give up his back if he's looking for a way out.
     
  2. SirKratos Silver Belt

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    Fight goes to decision (+320)

    Are you friggin kidding me.... Even if Rumble stays patient for just 1 round, this fight could easily go to a decision.

    I would like to know why people think a decision is so unlikely. In first fight Rumble completely blow his wad in round 1, and the fight still went on for 4 rounds...

    +320 is an absolute steal, I'll be stabbing it
     
  3. SirKratos Silver Belt

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    Um, what?

    The punch landed on top of his head and DC was moving away from the punch.... Thats nowhere near close to being the best punch Rumble could offer.

    Do you think it had the same force with these strikes?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  4. t6p Brown Belt

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    I thought about it some more after I posted and you're right, it's probably not as great of a line as I initially thought, but I do still like it. Partially because I favor Rumble to win the fight, but I also don't think it's out of the question that DC can win by decision or TKO via gnp. Either way DC itd is +159 right now. I fully expect his sub line to get back up around +200 before fight time, in which case I can hedge or free roll it if I want.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    What? DC subbed him like halfway through rd 3. And Rumble was DONE. Absolutely and completely gassed.

    I'm not saying he might not pace himself better this time, but you have realize DC just isn't gonna stand with Rumble again. He's gonna **try** to get his grind on asap. Which means closing distance. Which means he either gets his hands on Rumble and takes him down and works him there (which will tax Rumble's gas tank even worse than throwing bombs) or he's gonna eat one of Rumble's nuclear warheads that he has on the end of his arms and probably not survive this time.

    Either way, this thing going 25 minutes is really unlikely. Not impossible obviously, but I don't see value in +320 at all.
     
  6. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    I want to be on DC here. He knows exactly what he needs to do and he has all the tools to do it. Also, if he gets Rumble down early I think Rumble can gas by the end of the 1st.

    ...but something is telling me DC is getting KOed.
     
  7. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    It is hard to be objective in this one. We haven't seen DC recently, and we have seen Rumble running through everyone he fights. It is easy to forget what an incredible fighter DC is.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    For sure. Recency bias alive and well. I'm on Rumble and will be on his KO line. But I'm trying to stay disciplined for exactly the reasons you're pointing out.
     
  9. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Youd need to give me +1000 for me to even consider the fight going to decision, either AJ KOs DC or AJ gets beat up on the ground until he gives up his neck, the best way to lose.

    +320 imo is terrible price.
     
  10. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    AJ has 27 pro fights. He has been to 3 3-round decisions and 1 2-round decision.
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Rumble rd 1 +300. Was hoping for at least +350. Will settle for +300, just betting it smaller. Maybe get some line movement and add.
     
  12. t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm sure it's a coincidence but it's pretty funny after we talked about this last week that they opened the line exactly where you guessed it would be. I mean it was +425 a few months ago, what's changed since then.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    It's totally because of me dammit!

    Ha ha nah really the only thing that's changed is the betting public's perception of the fight. As it gets closer, Rumble kept getting bet to where the fight is a pick 'em. So the prop odds followed suit when they opened. Oh well...
     
  14. SirKratos Silver Belt

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    Thanks for the correction, for some reason I thought the first fight got stopped in fourth round.

    I don't know, I have a weird feeling this might go to a decision. Big Rumble supporter here, can't wait :)
     
  15. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I took Rumble at 1.90, best I can find at my books, 1.5U. I'll add more if the line gets over 2.00 othwise I'll just play his KO line.

    I have a feeling Rumbles line will get worse with all the UFC promos focusing on his power, so D.C. backers will probably get a better price if waiting.
     
  16. Looks like the vast majority of you guys are on Rumble. I realize Cormier is getting up in age and has had some injuries but I still find it hard to bet against him. Cormier is so good at closing the distance and once he gets the clinch against the fence he will work him there and possibly get a takedown.
     
  17. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    DC, AJ is a simple case of backing AJ by KO and LBing DC after the first round or 2.
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    That's what I'm gonna do, hehe. I just hope aj gets it in rd 1 so I make the most profit !
     
  19. Orion Brown Belt

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    Agreed, yet DC has never had a fight where he didnt get punched....in other words Rumble is likely going to land something at some point and I don't like DC's chances of surviving that power yet again. Just as DC knows what Rumble is going to do, Rumble knows what DC is going to do and I think he buys enough time in-between TD/clinch attempts to land some heavy shots. I also don't like DC's chances with Cain and Rockhold not at 100% to help him prep.

    I'd also like to believe AJ will pace himself better but I'm not banking on that since he doesn't have a history of doing so
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Cormier itd is +159
    Cormier sub is +125

    Lol
     
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