Reviewing footage on Cummins.
His fight with Nog was back and forth. Each fighter having their moments. A clean 2 piece wobbled Cummins and Nog swarmed landing bomb after bomb, but only prompting a standing TKO. No shame there.
Against DC, DC did what DC does. Clinch early, beat him up with short hooks and uppercuts, bada-bing bada-boom. IIRC Cummins took that fight on super short notice too.
Against OSP it looked like Cummins was doing his thing. He used his strikes to get inside and get the takedowns, which looked effortless but couldn't land in position to keep OSP down. During an exchange OSP caught him with a clean uppercut and sat him down.
Against Glover..... for some reason he chose to stay at range and make the fight a shootout. Not exactly a good plan against a guy like Glover. Aside from a few takedowns, Cummins wasn't able to accomplish much else. Glover pretty much clobbered him, and Cummins didn't look like he had confidence slugging it out against a proven slugger like Glover.
The fights Cummins won in the UFC were clinics. He works at a quick pace and keeps the pressure on his opponents.
Looking at Jan Blachowicz, A LOT of his wins were in the KSW organization against guys who don't even have their own wikipedia pages. That doesn't inspire a narrative into great competition being fought. In his previous fights, it looks like he has no idea how to stop a takedown, or what to do to get back to his feet. Alexander Gustaffsen took him down at will. I compare Blachowicz to a poor mans Cyril Diabate. An opponent Gustaffsen also torched on the ground.
We all know what happened in his fight with Gustaffsen. Alex got lit up a bit on the feet, but that's because he frequently backed up with his chin high and hands low. He ended up using trips and double leg takedowns to GnP the piss out of Jan. Jan pretty much held on for dear life.
Jan definitely looks like a fighter that is 2-3 in the UFC against middle-of-the-road competition. His most notable wins in MMA are against Houston Alexander (by decision lol), Goran Reljic, and winning a rematch against Sokoudjou. After watching tape on both fighters again, I feel about 85% confident picking Cummins.
Cummins isn't the best striker, and IMO the talk about him being chinny is a bit overstated given the competition and types of fighters he's faced in the UFC. On the other side of the tracks Blachowicz is a decent range fighter, but has almost literally zero ground game at all.
As long as Cummins doesn't hold his hands down and get into a shootout, I expect him to work his way inside and throw Blachowicz around the cage and cruising to a 30-27 decision.