Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 6, 2017.
Bet365 don't allow a with parlay Emmett and Mousasi, wtf is going on?
constant forward pressure
leaning, grinding, clinch heavy attack
extremely strong in clinch
looks to back guys into cage and trip from the clinch
great chain wrestler
will open up with heavy standing strikes once opponent is tired
eats a lot of straight punches down the pipe
opponents are often able to pop back up from underneath him, not the best top control
most (basically all) of his TDs come against the fence, so a fighter with good lateral movement and footwork can avoid the clinch
well-timed body shots have kept him from changing levels
hard on the gas pedal, if made to work outside his comfort zone then cardio is a question
great size/frame for division
excellent stinging jab
good pressure, good at cutting off cage, lateral movement
well rounded, technical striking
good TDD, springs right up when taken down
lateral movement when pressured
tall guy defense (upright stature, chin not tucked)
punches over the top of his jab
Ponz + Breese both had success with chopping low kicks
Both Usman and Strickland have a clear path to victory. Usman will look to wear Strick out with his heavy, grinding attack and take over the fight. Strick will look to circle away from Usman's pressure, avoid the clinch and TD, and use his jab and boxing to punish Usman standing. It all comes down to whether Strick can circle away consistently or be drawn into a clinch battle. Usman is heavily favored by the books but there are still some questions that remain unanswered about him and Strickland presents a stiffer challenge than his previous opponents on his run. At +275 Strick is absolutely worth a play imo.
Shane Burgos vs. Charles Rosa
My pick is Burgos. I think he has as good of TDD as Bochniak who was able to keep Rosa off of him for the most part. He's (Burgos) also a much better striker than Boch who got confused by Rosa switching stances often and changing up his rhythm/timing. I just think Burgos has a much better all around striking game; better jab and work done behind it, great rips to the body, better footwork, more accurate, etc. He won't get so thrown off by Rosa's unorthodox attacks, and will have just as much success as Boch did at stopping the TD. Boch also took that fight on 4 days notice (!) and gassed out hard. Burgos will show up with a gas tank. Burgos is also quite large for 145, his size should aid in his counter wrestling. Rosa does have a black belt from Ricardio Liborio at ATT, such a nice accolade but I don't think his grappling is really sticky enough, all of the guys he grappled were able to scramble fairly easily.
The current odds aren't worth a play imo but I was able to get 2u on Burgos at -175. A little higher than I wanted (around -165) but I'm happy with it.
Cynthia, Aldana, Pearl signing posters
Other required viewing material;
Pearl training- said she has been in a 3.5 month training camp for this fight, and is leaner, stronger and faster.
Cynthia and Aldana
Pearl showing a little vag. Has a tattoo directly on her tit. I like this chick
i don't have much to wager this week so i'm going with a parlay of emmett, gregor and burgos at +250.
i like bibulatov a lot too but -400 is unappealing.
I agree with whats been said pretty much on cummins jan. Clear good striker who lacks serious power and bad tdd and even worse get ups vs great wrestler with not great top control and dodgy chin.
Just like to add cummins had 7 ufc fights in 20 months and near on every fight was a tough fight. Thats too much. Hes a new fighter albeit an old one very hard to learn much when old and fighting so frequently especially at the highest level. He fought 4 times in brazil too thats a big ask for anyone not brazilian. Hes had 10 months off which he clearly needed. Been training at zilians too. Hopefully see some improvements and im glad he rested his brain from trauma for this amount of time hopefully he looks a bit fresher.
Also worth noting, i'm not sure where Cummins has been training? But i'm pretty positive the Nog camp was his first with Kings MMA. If hes been training with Kings still for the past year since the loss, I expect him to look good.
Another thing about Cummins is that he mentioned being homeless a couple of months ago.
I am leaning Blachowicz slightly but 1.77 isn't good enough for me. The line I like the most in this fight is the o1.5.
brooks dec +150 is intriguing.
Checked his IG, looks like Cummins trained with Hooft/Blackzilians
i'm looking at things of that angle, but man, oliveira can be broken.. he's only ever been to two decisions in a long ufc career
(i'm aware brooks isn't a finisher, i've seen just about all of his fights since dream / bella / ufc etc)
yea that's all i have at present, 1.6u -160 O1.5.
i figure only blachowicz can end it prior to 1.5 so might do something on his side in some capacity (nsc, etc)
Forgot to mention jan has a horrible gas tank too.
So I just watched Jan's and Cummins fights and I was off on this. Their last fights completely warped my memory of them.
Jan is just terrible, he fights to the level of his competition so he looked good standing with Gus. Cummins is still chinny but he's a wrestler. 1 TD and is over for the round cause Jan has no getups.
Cummins at + odds is the way to go. Jan hasnt got the power to put him away. Atleast Cummins can finish, Jan damn well cant.
I got cummins at +100, and he's up to +110 on 5dimes.
Cummins is the obvious clear-as-day pick. You don't even need to be #elite to see that.
Cummins had probably been having his brains beat in by Rumble all camp though
Oliveira will finish or get finished, thats how he rolls
Money coming on Chris
Mousasi odds 1.90
He's with the blackzillians now? I mean i guess its a better fit than Kings.
Btw how is Cormier the underdog? has there been any rumours of injuries or something?
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