1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 3, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Yotsuya Brown Belt

    Joined:
    May 26, 2004
    Messages:
    2,545
    Likes Received:
    246
    Wow, JJ actually looked really shy in the faceoff without her usual egoshow. I'm even more curious than before if she can make this transition from Ronda-style anger motivation fighter to a stable professional athlete.

    Mas is bothered a bit being the favourite. Draw and Maia dec props look good, but I maybe there's a reason for that. Here's an exact quote: "What is your official prediction? How will you finish Maia?" Mas: "I don't think it makes it to the third round. I don't know how, but it doesn't make it to the third round." Mas seems like honest guy who speaks his mind. He's not predicting a KO victory for himself. He's just saying, that someone gets finished before round 3. Things don't always go as intended, but I think mindset like that is a significant factor.
     
  2. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300) Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2017
    Messages:
    1,278
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Platinum Nation
    Fun fact: Fedor was undefeated for almost a decade ...
     
  3. SirKratos Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2014
    Messages:
    14,972
    Likes Received:
    1,802
    She only mean mugs the pretender soccer moms. Andrade is as real as it gets
     
  4. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,117
    Likes Received:
    608
    Location:
    Merica
    I don't know why everyone is giving Goodfella so much shit on unit size as that has always been an issue with a large % of posters here. Look in the betting threads and see how many people have several units on a fight. Realistically, they are either betting an extremely large portion of their bankroll or just need to redefine their unit size. That's why I've never been a fan of people saying "I'm betting X units" as in MMA betting, that ranges so much on how everyone defines it. What I find ironic is that people bitch about that skewing results more than anything, but rarely are people posting their ROI which actually shows how well their returns are. There are a lot of people risking a shitload for a return that seems good on the surface, but when you start comparing to risk, the returns really aren't great.
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    Why is this? Surely 1 unit should be 1% of your br. I don't see how it can work any other way.
     
  6. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,117
    Likes Received:
    608
    Location:
    Merica
    You've been on this thread a long time, and you really think everyone here is using 1% of their bankroll as a unit? If so, people are risking a very large % of their bankroll. Look through some of the "post your bet" threads. It's not like most MMA bettors are using some meticulous system of defining their bankroll, defining their unit, following Kelly criterion, etc. You have some people betting 20+ units total, some betting 3 units total, some betting multiple single bets at 5 units each. I know that a lot of people defined a unit at what their normal bet was (maybe years ago) and they never really changed it with their fluctuation in bankroll.

    That conversation has happened on here several times. Someone saying they've won X units this year, or even saying they've won X dollars this year, honestly doesn't say much. Someone winning 50 units this year while risking 1000 units is not doing better than someone who bet 10 units who risked 100 units. ROI really tells the story on if someone is getting good returns or not, especially in regards to units.
     
  7. Yotsuya Brown Belt

    Joined:
    May 26, 2004
    Messages:
    2,545
    Likes Received:
    246
    But isn't it so, that if 1% is one unit, then telling how many units you have won this year absolutely gives right objective info of how effectively he manages risk and how well optimizes his bankroll?
     
  8. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,117
    Likes Received:
    608
    Location:
    Merica
    Well yes and no. First, you are having to make it clear to everyone that "I actually use 1% as my bankroll". Second, ok, so you won _________ units, but how much do you risk for that? Saying something like "I'm up 40 units so far this year" doesn't give a clear picture at all. Someone up 40 units this year who risks 25 units per event is far different from someone who risks an average of 5 units per event.

    IMO, there is no indicator better than ROI to show how well someone is doing gambling.
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    There is nothing weird about calling you out when you are not good at gambling and charge people $120 a month.
     
  10. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    And they are actually friends/acquaintance
     
  11. Slohog Green Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    2
    As long as it's over a decent sample size I think ROI is the best way to do it. If you say units you need to define how many units you've risked over time to get the same info as the ROI.

    Like, anyone who has posted more then maybe 100 bets should really use ROI to make it easier and anyone who brags about a sample size of less then 100 bets can't be taken serious on that ground (not saying they're bad or retards, just that the sample size doesn't support any kind of claim about profitability unless the winrate is absolutely huge).

    Really don't think that anyone who has spent less then a couple of years betting MMA can claim that they're proven winners over a decent sample size. Like, anyone who has played online poker knows that just because some dumb fuck happens to win like 50 buy ins over 50k hands or whatever it doesn't mean that they'll keep winning.

    I'm guessing that of the regular posters here maybe five or ten can make a claim of profitability over a meaningful sample size in total for MMA betting. On the top of my head I'd probably bet that EzFlyer might have the sample to support that and possibly MMAGF if he tracked his bets before it got 3rd partied. Then maybe a handful of people who has tracked their stuff in private. Guessing less then three (and I'm being generous) can claim profitability over a statistical sample that makes it 99%+ sure that it's not just variance on 3rd party sites. I'd say 0, but I don't really know the math and I'm to lazy to look up if anyone is winning by a decent margin over 1k+ bets or whatever it might be.

    Basically my point is that as long as you have the following:

    1. Units wagered.
    2. Profit/loss
    3. Sample size (number of bets)

    You can probably make a formula that calculates the margin of error. If you have a decent math guy who can program stuff decently he can probably make you a program to calculate it by just putting the numbers in and pressing enter.

    Now that I think about it I might try to hire my brother in law to do one of those.
     
  12. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,117
    Likes Received:
    608
    Location:
    Merica
    Glad to see Budden has the fighting spirit back.

     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Dude your logic is so flawed. Someone who wins more money is doing worse if their roi is lower? No.

    This is about winning money. You defend luca who's juiced favorite strategy probably fucks his roi, yet then you post a point of view like this.

    Bottom line is, goodfella clearly fudges his unit sizes. Just cause some noobs on Sherdog haven't grasped bankroll management yet doesn't make it ok for some guy who kind of sucks and lost 100u months ago to fudge his numbers. Units are a defined betting portion for a reason, and that reason is if anyone actually follows that rule to help their bankroll management it lessens loss. But when you have a bum like goodfella fudging numbers to the point he lost 100u, that an entire bankroll for a conventional gambler
     
  14. trucido Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2016
    Messages:
    528
    Likes Received:
    0
    I need someone to physically stop me adding any more to my Maia bet. He's officially the biggest I've went on someone since I started betting. If he wins I'll feel #elite, if not, I'll be pissed at my self. Gambling is a viscous cycle.
     
  15. Yotsuya Brown Belt

    Joined:
    May 26, 2004
    Messages:
    2,545
    Likes Received:
    246
    ROI does not take in account making good hedge bets when the lines move. On paper they increase money risked, but actually reduce the risk if the call was right.
     
  16. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,346
    Likes Received:
    75
    agreed, I don't track ROI as my betting strategy differs from a lot on here and between scalping, arbing, trading, outright bets, LB and hedges amongst other things it doesn't really give an accurate overview of how successful i am due to the constantly changing landscape of mma betting and the areas I think it is most profitable/effective to focus on, whereas roi becomes more important if your strategy remains unchanged and unaltered over a large sample size, which I think in itself pigeonholes your options as a bettor as inefficiencies can easily be ironed out over time by books.
     
  17. Yotsuya Brown Belt

    Joined:
    May 26, 2004
    Messages:
    2,545
    Likes Received:
    246
    Could be, but I would not be surprised, if she has changed her attitude for good.
     
  18. Ukram Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2013
    Messages:
    13,695
    Likes Received:
    10
  19. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,117
    Likes Received:
    608
    Location:
    Merica
    It's not flawed at all, and I can't believe you work in the financial industry if you don't understand that. Saying you are up __________ is just a snapshot in time. There are several indicators where this person may not be doing as well as someone who is up less money. For example, someone who just came off a big win with a low ROI that is up $10k is probably not doing better overall than someone sitting at $10k with a higher ROI. Long term, the latter would be ahead. Similarly, you can have someone up 50 units or whatever who is going to bet 40 units the next event. Where their winnings sit can fluctuate greatly, and the guy sitting up 50 units who only bets 5 units is more likely to have stable results.

    That's bullshit and you know it. It's about bragging on the internet.


    When in the hell did I defend Luca's juiced favorite strategy? That never happened. If you are referring to when I was talking about how he's obviously making a lot of money on premium picks if he's moving lines, that was defending the way he's built a business. You have these people on betting threads that are so damn concerned with how good they are and how much better they are than Luca, yet they can't monetize that for shit. I think it's hilarious that he built a business and the online touts that care so much about how other people think they are doing are mad as hell. I think the tout business is ridiculous too, which I've always stated.


    You are preaching to the choir on unit size. Again, this has been a problem in these threads for a long time, even before you were here. I called out MMABettingTips A LOT on that as it always inflated his wins. But the thing is, it will inflate your losses too. I've never been a fan of units, only because people use them wrong and it doesn't really say shit.

    And Goodfella knows that I've been critical of him in the past, particularly in live bets. That was a big thing when live betting first started. It seemed like everyone was somehow hedging out on live plays or adding more. You rarely heard about the losses.
     
  20. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,117
    Likes Received:
    608
    Location:
    Merica
    This is absolutely true. It also doesn't take into account how many plays you've made. There are definitely flaws, but without a doubt there are more flaws to just stating I'm up _______ this year. That's leaving out a lot of information that is pertinent.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.