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UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 3, 2017.

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  1. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    most people here bet to small for optimal br growth when they bet favourites (assuming they are profitable betters) if you look at the math.
     
  2. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    its possible as there can be 10-8 scores. maia from backpacking a whole rd. maz from knockdowns and maia flopping to his back when he gets hit like the conner diaz fight (a way he could lose a rd big but still survive). its a long shot and unlikly to happen but 80/1
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Short term yes I agree. But at the end of the year, if someone has a worse ROI but made more money they win. Thats why I can only hate on Luca for perceivably being a giant douchebag. We all know his ROI has to be the worst, but if hes hitting those juiced faves consistently which has been the case than hes winning

    Bragging on the internet is also awesome, but for sure thats still second to winning money

    My bad I must've remembered wrong but now that you pointed it out I am remembering you praising the business model and not much else

    Correct its going to inflate everything. So lets give Goodfella the small amount of respect hes earned for being profitable. But like someone pointed out, if you take his "standard 5.5u - 20u" bets and reduce those to ACTUAL unit sizes, hes up 10u last year. Thats GARBAGE if you're gonna charge people money.

    Hes misleading people. Seriously, its gross. If there is someone out there like me when I first started who is learning about gambling and defines their units, comes across this bum with his however many units won, pays for his service and hes making dumb as fuck 20u bets losing 100u a month that person will NEVER learn anything and be misled as to how this really works if you want long term profitability. Are they the main ones at fault? Of course. But does that mean I have to respect a guy like Goodfella who takes advantage cause hes a lazy fuck? Fuck no

    And lastly, I just wanna LOL real quick at MMAGF saying "oh I do 20 hours of research so I feel like I should charge people"

    What bro? We ALL do our research. The difference is, MMAGF has under legit terms made about 10u the past year and feels obliged to fudge his numbers and start a tout service to take advantage of cause apparently doing your research like any good gambler makes that OK.
     
  5. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    a heavy fav bettors roi is more likely to be accurate than a dog bettor over the same sample size. you can trust the favourites bettors roi with more confidence
     
  6. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Mas not as cocky as usuall, propably knows maia could rape him if he wanted to
     
  7. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Not at all, especially over a large sample size. Unless you are trying to say the fav bettors pick is more likely to hit in ONE instance. Well of course. But over multiple bets, it would be the same.
     
  8. DarkneT Khamzat sucks Platinum Member

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    Why so high on Sherman?
    Or is more just how bad the opponent
     
  9. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    over 100 bets a -400 bettors roi compared to a +400 bettors roi. both have the same positive roi. you can say with a greater degree of confidence that the -400 bettor is profitable
     
  10. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    fading the opponent. and seen enough from sherman in his losses. he is tough and has big heart and chin. capping lots of unknowns. unknowns in every fight just a lot more in this one. the way im capping them tho sherman should be a much bigger fav
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Played Casey No SC at -147. Now -540. Lol
     
  12. trucido Blue Belt

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    zzzzzz. Less arguing about b.r management/Luca/ROI bullshit and more talking about the fight card please.
     
  13. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    this is very flawed indeed!!

    For example, someone who just came off a big win with a low ROI that is up $10k is probably not doing better overall than someone sitting at $10k with a higher ROI. Long term, the latter would be ahead

    your example does not take into account betting strategies, and the difference in using a bigger bank/ larger bets especially because almost all of the time it can become a lot harder to get a higher ROI when using larger stakes, it makes no sense if your comparing someone who has a much larger ROI to someone who has a smaller one because their bet sizes would likely differ a lot, while not even accounting for more fundamental differences in their wagers/mentality etc
     
  14. DarkneT Khamzat sucks Platinum Member

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    Do you not consider Maia's run a bit of a smoke screen considering Brown and Condit are retired fighters (basically)
    Gunnar is weird and wanted to test his grappling, Magny laflare and Yakolev don't carry huge strike threats?
     
  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    No. You can't discount seven dominating wins over quality fighters.
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Even further than this, you also can't discount a close loss to Rory where he scored multiple tds. Literally no one but Maia has ever outwrestled or outgrappled Rory
     
  17. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Explain your logic on that.
     
  18. walljohn White Belt

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    Here here to that.
    Come on guys.
     
  19. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Sure, ROI isn't going to take everything into account, but it's taking a lot more into account than just saying "whoever is ahead more right now is doing better". ROI is a much better LONG TERM indicator. And the big thing with ROI is being used as an equalizer with unit size and bankroll. Someone who is betting $100 per event and is up $1000 for the year is probably going to be better to follow than someone who is betting $500 per event and is up $2000 for the year.
     
  20. Slohog Green Belt

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    Wrong, if the hedge is +ev it increases roi, if it's -ev it decreases. The only thing it does from being a "hedge" instead of a normal bet is decreasing risk, which is only indirectly correlated to ROI.

    Higher variance = higher sample size before you can say with X degree on of certainty that it's within the margin of error, I think.

    Guessing the +400 bettor has higher variance, but I'm not actually sure because I'm not sleeping enough and to lazy to think it through.
     
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