1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 23, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Masvidal has speed. His hands are fast. He throws good combinations. He's light on his feet. And now he's aggressive.

    Definitely on mas
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,024
    Likes Received:
    6,949
    Maia might lose, no question. But "shook". Uhh, no. I'm gonna guess if he showed up for his fight with prime Anderson Silva he's gonna come in for the Mas fight BAU.
     
  3. burge13 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2015
    Messages:
    1,589
    Likes Received:
    323
    I remember why i had Gambling Expert ignored. Is he Robbie? "Mas will win easy. I am an expert. Maia shook." constant dribble and ignoring any reasonable retort that doesn't align to his narrative.

    I couldn't be really confident either way but think JB is right in his thoughts re: Mas' stance and Maia being able to exploit it. Mas as fav doesn't make sense to me either...
     
  4. DevilsPt2 Minion

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
    Messages:
    3,769
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    The Crossroads
    Like Captain Kenny said, stats are useful but are just one piece that must be factored in conjunction with recently available info to see the truth.

    I can tell you'll be a great if you are not already though Jamah, you think about things on ore than just the surface level. A fighters mindset, alternate gameplans, possible hidden injuries, ect all come into account just as much as tape study.

    MMAGamblngExpert - I thnk you'll make a nice comeback this event. With you on Masvidal, so I bless you.

    K-Brown - Dont talk about who average bettors are on, instead look within yourself and stop projecting. Earn your respect, know it can be put in jeopardy and try not to lose right before you demand it.

    Had a lil something for JB as well but I'll spare him for now out of respect.

    For all that, I offer Masvidal by KO before the 3rd and will explain why when appropriate, as in after someone makes an ass of themselves responding to me.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2017
  5. Turp11 White Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2007
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
    Mas said in an interview that it he is gonna change his stance for maia not that he will for sure but hes an experienced fighter and hes not stupid. Masvidal seems like a bad matchup for him, he has good distance management, good combinations, good defensive wrestling and a fearless mentality. He has been working very hard on his wrestling and i dont really see the size difference being that much of factor because mas will be much faster and more fluent, kind of like whittaker jacare.
    Do you guys think this is a do or die for maia? he may retire if he loses hes getting up there in age.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2017
  6. Social Distance Warrior Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Messages:
    45,823
    Likes Received:
    21,806

    Holy shit...

    Love ballsy motherfuckers like you..

    Good luck!
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,024
    Likes Received:
    6,949
    At first I sort of found all the silly self aggrandizement and ridiculous condescending tone you guys are all using annoying. But now I kinda like it, because I don't know exactly how seriously each person is actually taking themselves. It's kinda fun.

    So kudos, good post man LOL.
     
  8. cagebrain Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,284
    Likes Received:
    16
    even worse. At least Brooks beat Chandler x2. Who has Branch beat? WSOF title defences < UFC fight pass fights
     
  9. burge13 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2015
    Messages:
    1,589
    Likes Received:
    323
    As i said I am not super confident either way. It's hard to imagine someone being comfortable changing what they've done for so long though.

    I do think it's do or die for Maia however. If he wins he cannot be denied a title fight even though they'll try and force him into a quick turnaround in July. If he loses, he'll never get near the title shot. That has little to no significance on the fight itself for me though
     
  10. cagebrain Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,284
    Likes Received:
    16
    I was so close hitting the draw on Cummins Blacowicz.

    its gonna hit soon. This is a perf fight for it to happen.
     
  11. Turp11 White Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2007
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Kelowna, BC
    its really not difficult to lower your stance a bit tho especially considering the matchup
     
  12. Ham Socks Professional Fighter

    Joined:
    May 8, 2011
    Messages:
    6,994
    Likes Received:
    380
    #SpittingTruth for the masses here. And yes, fade branch. Jotko looks like he might be the most well versed fighter on the ufc roster.
     
  13. burge13 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2015
    Messages:
    1,589
    Likes Received:
    323
    I wouldn't be willing to take that risk with him as fav. For anyone who got the +160 or whatever it was, fair enough. As a favourite? Madness imo. At least wait to live-bet if the signs are there. Just my 2c anyway. It's a pass for me, gun to head i pick Maia by decision. +320 but i think there is better odds around
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,511
    Likes Received:
    82
    Been a fan of Masvidal for a long time, but I'm all over Maia here at + odds
     
  15. JDB Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    3,914
    Likes Received:
    11
    Mas looks good, I've thought that since day one. But Maia has faced higher level comp and seems to have perfected his game.

    Risk for sure.
     
  16. JDB Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    3,914
    Likes Received:
    11
    Cejudo via points is one of the safer picks on this card. Both are decision machines and fav has much better wrestling.

    Hmmm I'm for sure gonna stake something on Yair via KO+round. Value should be decent there.
     
  17. Shancock9 Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2016
    Messages:
    249
    Likes Received:
    0
    real tough to pick, jumped on Maia when he went to dog but not as confident now, if they fought 100 times think theyd each win around 50
     
  18. Shancock9 Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2016
    Messages:
    249
    Likes Received:
    0
    I'm the opposite, at first i thought it was all a big joke and found it amusing, now im convinced theyre all serious
     
  19. FightOdds.io White Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    0
    I guess you caught me lurking! First off just want to say big ups to this thread, the discussions and content posted on here are so valuable for capping fights.

    I wouldn't necessarily call them "tout" or define them as "expert" plays, but since your asked ill share my thoughts!

    I like Stipe not ITD (-173), I missed the opening line at -102 and I'm hoping to get around -150. I think a lot of people are over estimating Stipe's ability to KO JDS since he's won his last 4 fights by KO. Each of those wins were all against fighters over the hill and with suspect chins. JDS has been through a ton of wars, but he's still 32 and has never been KO'd (TKO'd twice however). I watched JDS last 3 fights and I think he still has the chin to hold up. I'm personally cap the fight as 50/50 with Stipe winning ITD about 45% of the time (this equates to -344), so I see value even at -173.

    Maia/Mas is a toss up for me. Maia being a former middleweight and Mas being a former lightweight, I see Maia having the strength, size and technique to be able to take down Mas and at least control him for 2 rounds. The fact that he's 39 yrs old worries me tho and I won't be betting him unless he's a bigger dog. Basically for me if either fighter is in the +150 range by fight time I will bet them.
     
  20. iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,728
    Likes Received:
    10
    Oddly enough, I think i'm gonna be on Masvidal by decision. I can't decide how Masvidal is going to respond if he gets taken down. Is he gonna get subbed? Is he gonna try and stall to get to the end of the round? Too many question to make a play on Maia Dec or Maia Sub. I refuse to bet on this fight straight up. Odds are too close and it really comes down to one aspect that's a bit difficult to cap imo

    With that being said, i can see Mas peppering Maia if he's able to avoid getting taken down. i dont think a Mas finish is very likely because he would have to be somewhat careful not to over commit. He must realize he's so close to a title shot and being overaggressive can lead to Maia getting the fight to the ground. More so, if Maia isnt able to get the takedown, i can see him just diving for legs or avoiding striking engages the fight like he did with Anderson for 3-4 rounds. I think Mas by DEC is probably the prop with the most value at this point. Ill be on it for a unit at +260
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.